|01:30 (GMT)||Australia||Trade Balance||March||7.529||8|
|01:45 (GMT)||China||Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI||April||50.6||50.8|
|04:30 (GMT)||Australia||Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate||0.1%||0.1%|
|07:00 (GMT)||Switzerland||SECO Consumer Climate||Quarter II||-14.6|
|08:30 (GMT)||United Kingdom||Net Lending to Individuals, bln||March||4.9|
|08:30 (GMT)||United Kingdom||Mortgage Approvals||March||87.7||92.3|
|08:30 (GMT)||United Kingdom||Consumer credit, mln||March||-1.246||-0.5|
|08:30 (GMT)||United Kingdom||Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing||April||58.9||60.7|
|12:30 (GMT)||Canada||Building Permits (MoM)||March||2.1%|
|12:30 (GMT)||Canada||Trade balance, billions||March||1.04||0.8|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||International Trade, bln||March||-71.1||-74.3|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Factory Orders||March||-0.8%||1.3%|
|22:30 (GMT)||Australia||AiG Performance of Construction Index||April||61.8|
|22:45 (GMT)||New Zealand||Employment Change, q/q||Quarter I||0.6%||0.2%|
|22:45 (GMT)||New Zealand||Unemployment Rate||Quarter I||4.9%||4.9%|
According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group discuss the April decline in the U.S. ISM manufacturing index.
"The April ISM manufacturing index dropped to 60.7, well below market expectations for 65. This marked a 4.0 percentage points decrease from the March reading of 64.7."
"The overall economy registered the eleventh consecutive month of growth. After last month’s biggest jump since the pandemic’s onset, manufacturing activity has cooled. The slowdown in activity was broad-based with production, employment and imports registering the biggest declines compared to March. Meanwhile, the jump in backlog of orders continues to show supply struggling to catch up with demand."
"The manufacturing sector’s expansion continues, albeit at a slower rate. Companies and suppliers are struggling to meet the rising demand due to pandemic-related restrictions and limited availability of manufacturing inputs. These shortages, along with rising commodity prices and difficulty in transporting goods are impacting all segments of the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the labor market is still weak and businesses are continuing to hold back on investment amidst still-elevated uncertainty. The recent slowdown in vaccine administration isn’t likely to help either as it would delay reopenings in certain states. Moreover, the sector continues to remain vulnerable to another wave of cases and new variants."
Commerce Department announced on Monday that construction spending rose 0.2
percent m-o-m in March after a revised 0.6 percent m-o-m drop in February
(originally a 0.8 percent m-o-m decrease).
Economists had forecast construction spending growing 1.9 percent m-o-m in March.
According to the report, spending on private construction rose 0.7 percent m-o-m, while investment in public construction fell 1.5 percent m-o-m.
report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday the U.S.
manufacturing sector’s activity expanded in April albeit at a slower pace than in
The ISM's index of manufacturing activity came in at 60.7 percent last month, down 4.0 percentage points from an unrevised March reading of 64.7 percent. The April reading pointed to the growth in the manufacturing sector for the 11th straight month but at the slowest pace since January.
Economists' had forecast the indicator to increase to 65.0 percent.
A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.
According to the report, the New Orders Index stood at 64.3 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from the March reading, while the Production Index came in at 62.5 percent, a drop of 5.6 percentage points compared to the March reading, the Employment Index was at 55.1 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower than the March reading, the Supplier Deliveries Index recorded 75 percent, down 1.6 percentage points from the March figure, and the Inventories Index registered 46.5 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than the March reading. Meanwhile, the Backlog of Orders Index registered 68.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher compared to the March reading, and the Prices Index posted 89.6 percent, up 4 percentage points compared to the March reading.
Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, noted that the manufacturing economy continued its growth in April but Survey Committee members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing rates of demand due to COVID-19 impacts limiting availability of parts and materials. “Recent record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy,” he said. “Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to part shortages, and difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues that limit manufacturing-growth potential.” Fiore also said that the past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicated that the PMI for April (60.7 percent) corresponds to a 5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.
latest report by IHS Markit revealed on Monday the seasonally adjusted IHS
Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) came in at 60.5
in April, up from 59.1 in March and broadly in line with the earlier released
“flash” reading of 60.6. The April reading pointed to the strongest growth in
factory activity since data collection for the series began in May 2007.
Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 60.6.
According to the report, the headline figure was supported by sharp increases in output and new orders, with the rate of expansion of the latter accelerating to the fastest for 11 years. In addition, unprecedented supplier delivery delays (ordinarily a sign of improvement in operating conditions) also pushed the indicator higher in April.
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Monday, underpinned by solid Q1 corporate earnings and upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from Warren Buffett.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
EUR/USD: Short-term bias shifts to the downside – UOB
FXStreet reports that in the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD risks a deeper pullback below the 1.1975 level in the next weeks.
Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest narrative from last Thursday (29 Apr, spot at 1.2135), we indicated that ‘the positive phase in EUR is still intact but in view of the overbought conditions, EUR may find it hard to break the major resistance at 1.2185’. However, we did not quite expect the sudden sharp drop on Friday that took out our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2050 (low of 1.2015). The break of the ‘strong support’ indicates that the positive phase that started in early April has run its course. From here, the near-term bias is tilted to the downside but EUR has to break the major support at 1.1975 before a more sustained (and sizeable) pullback can be expected. At this stage, the prospect for a break of 1.1975 is not high but it would increase unless EUR moves above 1.2105 within these few days.”
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
American Express Co
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co
Exxon Mobil Corp
FedEx Corporation, NYSE
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.
International Business Machines Co...
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
The Coca-Cola Co
Travelers Companies Inc
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Alphabet A (GOOGL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at China Renaissance; target $3000
FedEx (FDX) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
Raytheon Technologies (RTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; target $100
FXStreet reports that Ho Woei Chen, CFA, an economist at UOB Group, comments on the latest PMI data in the Chinese economy.
“The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) from China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing fell by a larger-than-expected pace in April. However, the sharp rebound in the private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI likely eased concerns about the slowdown in April.”
“We think that the larger-than-expected drop in the CFLP PMIs likely indicated a moderation in expectations during April following the surge in March, when both sets of PMIs rebounded sharply towards their November peaks.”
“Importantly, the CFLP manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have continued to remain in expansion (defined as a reading above 50) since March 2020 while the Caixin manufacturing PMI has stayed in expansion since May 2020. This suggests that the outlook is still positive despite the moderation in the official PMIs.”
|06:00||Germany||Retail sales, real adjusted||March||2.7%||3%||7.7%|
|06:00||Germany||Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y||March||-6.6%||-0.3%||11%|
EUR rose against most of its major rivals in the European session on Monday, supported by data from IHS Markit, which showed that Eurozone’s manufacturing activity saw a record expansion in April.
According to the report, IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI stood at 62.9 in April, little-changed from a flash estimate of 63.3 and above March's final reading of 62.5. This was the highest level since data collection began in June 1997 and marked the tenth successive month that the indicator has posted above the 50.0 no-change threshold.
In addition, Germany’s retail sales data for March were much better than forecast. Destatis reported that the German retail sales rose 7.7% m/m in March, following a revised 2.7% gain in February. Economists had expected a 3% m/m advance. This was the largest increase since a record 12.9% climb in May 2020. On a yearly basis, retail sales surged 11%, the most on record.
Accelerating vaccine rollout in the EU also added to the positive sentiment. The European Commission (EC) proposed today the EU’s member state to loosen restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers.
FXStreet reports that strategists at OCBC Bank note that the U.S. Treasury yields have started to rebound higher following their April decline, and if that trend continues the downward pressure on gold could intensify.
“The recent rise in US Treasury yields and firming of asset prices globally (commodities included) have started to manifest in gold prices.”
“Our model suggests gold currently has a fair value of $1670-$1770/oz, which may continue falling if Treasury yields continue to climb.”
“A strong nonfarm payroll figure (>1 million) will probably solidify the risk-on sentiment and send commodities soaring. Gold will likely dip in that scenario. The USD may likely strengthen on the strong numbers but is unlikely to create a dent on prices.”
FXStreet notes that EUR/JPY remains bid despite minor dip. Axel Rudolph, the Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects the pair to advance nicely and eventually reach the 137.51-mark.
“EUR/JPY last week charted a 2-year high at 132.36, which has not been confirmed by the daily RSI. This reflects a loss of upside momentum and we would allow for a dip lower and some near term consolidation and we will attempt to buy the dips lower.”
“Ideally dips will be contained by the 6-month uptrend at 129.91. Uptrend support is reinforced by the 55-day ma at 129.69. While it holds, attention remains on the topside.”
“Our longer-term target is the 137.51 2018 high.”
FXStreet reports that Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew reviews the recent US GDP results for the January-March period.
“US 1Q 2021 GDP increased by 6.4% q/q SAAR (slightly missing Bloomberg Est 6.5%, but much better than UOB Est 2.0%), up from 4.3% in 4Q 2020.
“The growth in 1Q was largely attributed to the strength in private consumption, while business & residential investments and government’s consumption expenditure & investment also contributed, albeit a much smaller share of the overall growth.”
“The robust 1Q GDP reading together with the recent set of very promising US economic data, adds to the positive US growth outlook, anchored by the continued success in the rollout of vaccinations across the US, and massive amounts of fiscal stimulus. That said, the growth trajectory remains highly uncertain (i.e. the tapering in the take-up rate of vaccination demand and new coronavirus variants) but on balance, there is more positive sentiment than fears of a COVID-19 driven correction. We now project that US GDP will extend its rebound meaningfully with a 13.4% increase in 2Q. The US full-year 2021 GDP is now expected to expand by 6.8% (from the previous projection of 6.3% made in Mar).”
The European Commission (EC) released a statement on its website, proposing that the EU's Member States ease the current restrictions on non-essential travel into the block to take into account the progress of vaccination campaigns and developments in the epidemiological situation worldwide.
"The Commission proposes to allow entry to the EU for non-essential reasons not only for all persons coming from countries with a good epidemiological situation but also all people who have received the last recommended dose of an EU-authorised vaccine. This could be extended to vaccines having completed the WHO emergency use listing process. In addition, the Commission proposes to raise, in line with the evolution of the epidemiological situation in the EU, the threshold related to the number of new COVID-19 cases used to determine a list of countries from which all travel should be permitted. This should allow the Council to expand this list.
At the same time, the emergence of coronavirus variants of concern calls for continued vigilance. Therefore as counter-balance, the Commission proposes a new ‘emergency brake' mechanism, to be coordinated at EU level and which would limit the risk of such variants entering the EU. This will allow Member States to act quickly and temporarily limit to a strict minimum all travel from affected countries for the time needed to put in place appropriate sanitary measures."
Before the Open:
DuPont (DD). Consensus EPS $0.76, Consensus Revenues $3820.57 mln
Ferrari (RACE). Consensus EPS $0.99, Consensus Revenues $1039.01 mln
Pfizer (PFE). Consensus EPS $0.78, Consensus Revenues $13407.89 mln
After the Close:
Lyft (LYFT). Consensus EPS -$0.55, Consensus Revenues $554.70 mln
T-Mobile US (TMUS). Consensus EPS $0.63, Consensus Revenues $18985.90 mln
Before the Open:
Barrick (GOLD). Consensus EPS $0.31, Consensus Revenues $3166.81 mln
General Motors (GM). Consensus EPS $0.97, Consensus Revenues $33149.77 mln
After the Close:
PayPal (PYPL). Consensus EPS $1.01, Consensus Revenues $5894.62 mln
Uber (UBER). Consensus EPS -$0.37, Consensus Revenues $3258.98 mln
Before the Open:
Moderna (MRNA). Consensus EPS $3.02, Consensus Revenues $2479.53 mln
After the Close:
American Intl (AIG). Consensus EPS $1.01, Consensus Revenues $10555.97 mln
Beyond Meat (BYND). Consensus EPS -$0.21, Consensus Revenues $112.92 mln
Reuters reports that British finance minister Rishi Sunak said that a referendum on Scottish independence would put Britain's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic at risk.
Scotland will vote on Thursday for its devolved parliament, in which a victory for the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to create more pressure for an independence vote that has so far been rejected by the British government.
Sunak stressed the need to finish dealing with COVID-19 and start rebuilding the economy.
"There is one clear risk to this shared goal, and that is the uncertainty of a second independence referendum," he said.
"It would needlessly divide our country and at the worst possible time."
The SNP is expected to win the elections and, if it achieves an outright majority, will step up efforts to hold another independence referendum. In 2014 Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom.
Bloomberg reports that Warren Buffett delivered a clear verdict on the state of the U.S. economy as it emerges from the pandemic: red hot.
“It’s almost a buying frenzy,” the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chief executive officer said. “People have money in their pocket and they’re paying higher prices,” he said.
Buffett attributed the faster-than-expected recovery to swift and decisive rescue measures by the Federal Reserve and U.S. government, which helped kick 85% of the economy into “super high gear,” he said. But as growth roars back and interest rates remain low, many -- including Berkshire -- are raising prices and there is more inflation “than people would have anticipated six months ago,” he said.
FXStreet reports that strategists at OCBC Bank expect Brent Oil to remain below the $68 level at least until India contains the outbreak.
“The uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak in India will continue to pose the biggest downside risk to oil prices for now. Bloomberg reported in April, gasoline consumption in India probably fell 6% and diesel about 2%. This consumption weakness is likely to continue into this month, given the ever-worsening daily cases in India. We see selling pressure starting to build each time Brent attempts a break above $68. This cap may persist until India contains its latest outbreak, which may take at least a month or more.”
Reuters reports that S&P Global Ratings said that the $2.2 trillion global Islamic finance industry is expected to grow 10%-12% over 2021-2022 due to increased Islamic bond issuance and a modest economic recovery in the main Islamic finance markets.
The industry continued to grow last year despite the COVID-19 pandemic, although at a lower pace than in 2019.
Islamic finance, which bans interest payments and pure monetary speculation, has been on the rise for many years across markets in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, but it remains a fragmented industry with uneven implementation of its rules.
"Over the next 12 months, we could see progress on a unified global legal and regulatory framework for Islamic finance ... we believe that such a framework could help resolve the lack of standardisation and harmonisation that the Islamic finance industry has faced for decades," S&P said on Monday.
The industry is expected to receive some support in the coming two years in Saudi Arabia, where mortgages and corporate lending are expected to rise as the country pushes ahead with plans to diversify the economy.
FXStreet reports that economists at ING see the GBP/USD pair retesting the 1.40 handle behind BoE’s possible QE tapering.
“Although the Scottish elections may bring some negative headline news about another Scottish independence referendum, we don’t think this should have an overly negative impact on GBP. This is because (a) a referendum could be years away rather than months; (b) as we observed with the Brexit referendum, the risk premium started to be built into GBP only six months ahead of the event; and (c) the first Scottish referendum in 2014 did not translate into a material build-up of GBP risk premium.”
“As for the BoE April meeting, we should see a series of upgrades to the Bank’s forecasts and this encouraging outlook suggests the Bank may announce QE tapering. We expect GBP/USD to retest the 1.40 level.”
According to the report from IHS Markit, the eurozone manufacturing economy registered another stellar performance in April, with operating conditions improving at a rate that surpassed March’s survey record.
Seasonally adjusted headline PMI improved to 62.9, up from 62.5 in March and its highest ever recorded level (survey data have been available since June 1997). It was also the tenth successive month that the index has posted above the 50.0 no-change mark.
Growth was again broad-based per market group, with both the investment and intermediate goods categories registering considerable gains. Moreover, the improvement seen in investment goods was the strongest ever recorded. Consumer goods meanwhile saw a marked improvement in operating conditions, though growth lagged the two other categories covered by the survey.
Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone manufacturing is booming, with a new PMI record set for a second month running in April. The past two months have seen output and order books both improve at rates unsurpassed since the survey began in 1997, with surging demand boosted by economies opening up from COVID-19 lockdowns and brightening prospects for the year ahead. However, supply constraints are also running at unprecedented levels, leading to a record build-up of uncompleted orders at factories. The consequence of demand running ahead of supply is higher prices being charged by manufacturers, which are now also rising at the fastest rate ever recorded by the survey. The big uncertainty is how long these upward price pressures will persist for, and the extent to which these higher charges for goods and services will feed-though to consumers.”
|01:00||Australia||MI Inflation Gauge, m/m||April||0.4%||0.4%|
|01:30||Australia||ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)||April||7.8%||4.7%|
|06:00||Germany||Retail sales, real adjusted||March||2.7%||3%||7.7%|
|06:00||Germany||Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y||March||-6.6%||-0.3%||11%|
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar traded steady against major currencies as investors turn cautious at the start of a week that will be filled with central bank meetings and important US economic data.
Trading volumes were subdued due to the holidays in Japan and China, which curbed volatility, causing the US dollar to consolidate. The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell 0.03%.
"We expect the dollar to decline due to the improving outlook for the global economy," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Kim Mundy said. "However, the risk of a short-term rise in the dollar will persist if reliable data leads to a significant increase in US Treasury yields."
The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained slightly, but this was not enough to compensate for the fall on Friday.
FXStreet reports that economists at Capital Economics think S&P 500 returns over the next few years are likely to prove more tepid, for three key reasons.
“We suspect that the boost from valuations has now run its course. The real yields of long-dated safe assets have risen since the start of this year, and we expect them to resume their earlier upward trend. Meanwhile, credit spreads have levelled off around their pre-pandemic levels, and look unlikely to narrow much further. This suggests to us that further gains in stock markets will have to be driven by earnings growth, rather than by multiple expansion.”
“We think a lot of optimism about those earnings looks already baked into stock prices. After all, the consensus analyst forecast for full-year earnings in 2022 is almost 30% higher than actual earnings were in 2019. This suggests to us that there is limited scope for further earnings surprises to support the stock market over the next year. We think various shifts in economic policy have the potential to slow listed companies’ earnings growth. The prospect of higher corporate taxes in the US is a clear candidate. And the increasing focus of regulators on anti-trust issues, both in the US and elsewhere, is another.”
Reuters reports that Luis de Guindos, the ECB vice president, told that the European Central Bank can start to phase out emergency stimulus measures when the pace of coronavirus vaccinations reaches a critical level and the economy picks up speed.
"If by speeding up the vaccination campaign, we manage to have vaccinated 70% of Europe's adult population by the summer and the economy starts to pick up speed, we may also start to think about phasing out the emergency mode on the monetary policy side," de Guindos told.
"The normalisation of monetary policy should go hand in hand with the normalisation of the economy," he said.
Less than 30% of the bloc's population have received their first COVID-19 jabs so far. Experts say that getting 70% of people fully vaccinated is unlikely before the end of July, with the end of August seen as a more realistic deadline.
But de Guindos also cautioned against keeping central bank stimulus lingering too long, warning the side effects could be as damaging as removing support too early.
According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the real (price-adjusted) turnover of all retail enterprises in Germany was 7.7% higher and the nominal (not price-adjusted) turnover was 7.4% higher, on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, in March 2021 than in February 2021. This was the strongest month-on-month increase in turnover, both in real and in nominal terms, since restrictions had been imposed in March 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany. Economists had expected a 3.0% increase the real turnover. In March 2021, the calendar and seasonally adjusted real turnover increased by 4.4% compared with the pre-crisis month of February 2020.
Without calendar and seasonal adjustment, retail turnover in March 2021 increased by 11.0% in real terms and by 12.3% in nominal terms compared with March 2020. This was the strongest year-on-year increase in turnover, both in real and in nominal terms, recorded since the beginning of the time series in 1994. With a total of 27 trading days, however, March 2021 had one more trading day compared to March 2020.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2016
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 60122 contracts (according to data from April, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (3339);
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3807
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 7 is 12321 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2932);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 18949 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (2029);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.54 versus 1.49 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 30
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|01:00 (GMT)||Australia||MI Inflation Gauge, m/m||April||0.4%|
|01:30 (GMT)||Australia||ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)||April||7.4%|
|06:00 (GMT)||Germany||Retail sales, real adjusted||March||1.2%||3%|
|06:00 (GMT)||Germany||Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y||March||-9%||-0.3%|
|07:30 (GMT)||Switzerland||Manufacturing PMI||April||66.3||66|
|07:50 (GMT)||France||Manufacturing PMI||April||59.3||59.2|
|07:55 (GMT)||Germany||Manufacturing PMI||April||66.6||66.4|
|08:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Manufacturing PMI||April||62.5||63.3|
|13:45 (GMT)||U.S.||Manufacturing PMI||April||59.1||60.6|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Construction Spending, m/m||March||-0.8%||2%|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||ISM Manufacturing||April||64.7||65|
|18:20 (GMT)||U.S.||Fed Chair Powell Speaks|
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