Forex-novosti i prognoze od 01-07-2019

Major US stock indexes rose moderately against the background of a rise in price for shares of semiconductor manufacturers after the leaders of the United States and China agreed to resume negotiations.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have agreed not to introduce new tariffs on American and Chinese goods after meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka (Japan) on Saturday.

Trump said that the meeting was the best way possible, noting: "We are again on the right track." China’s Xinhua State News Agency reported that both leaders agreed to “resume trade consultations between their countries based on the principles of equality and mutual respect."

The head of the White House added that the United States will relax restrictions on US companies to sell products to the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. In May, the US banned companies from selling Huawei components, citing national security concerns. The US president also said that China would “buy agricultural products.”

Investors also studied data on activity in the manufacturing sector. A report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that in June, activity in the US manufacturing sector slightly deteriorated, but turned out to be higher than the experts' forecast. The manufacturing PMI fell in June to 51.7 points from 52.1 points in May. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 51.0 points. 

Most of the DOW components are in the black (22 out of 30). Growth Leader - Apple Inc. (AAPL; + 1.87%) Outsider - The Boeing Co. (BA; -2.28%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The technological sector grew the most (+ 1.1%). The exception is the utility sector (-0.3%) and the conglomerate sector (-0.2%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,718.86 +118.90 +0.45%

S & P 500 2,964.44 +22.68 +0.77%

Nasdaq 100 8,091.16 +84.92 +1.06%

Analysts at National Bank Financial (NBF) note the most important piece of news in the U.S. will be June’s non-farm payrolls.

• “While jobless claims edged marginally higher in the month, they remained indicative of a very low rate of layoffs. Hiring, meanwhile, may have remained relatively subdued judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed private sector employment advancing at the weakest pace in just over two years.
• Still, we’re calling for a slight acceleration in employment creation to 150K, a level above what the Atlanta Fed considers sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labour market and keep the unemployment rate steady over the long term (+110K/month).”

The Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending fell 0.8 percent m-o-m in May after a revised 0.4 percent m-o-m gain in April (originally unchanged m-o-m). It was the largest drop since November 2018.

Economists had forecast construction spending increasing 0.1 percent m-o-m in May.

According to the report, investment in public construction decreased 0.9 percent m-o-m, while spending on private construction declined 0.7 percent m-o-m

A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in June at a slower pace than in May.

The ISM's index of manufacturing activity came in at 51.7 percent last month, down 0.4 percentage point from the May reading of 52.1 percent, but beat economists' forecast for a 51.0 percent reading. That was the lowest reading since October 2016

A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.

According to the report, the New Orders Index stood at 50 percent, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from the May reading, while the Inventories Index recorded 49.1 percent, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, and the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.7 percent, a fall of 1.3-percentage point. At the same time, the Production Index came in at 54.1 percent in June, a 2.8-percentage point advance compared to the May reading, and the Employment Index was at 54.5 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point.

Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for June (51.7 percent) corresponds to a 2.6-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

• Inflation far from target
• Our 2021 inflation forecast of 1.6% is far from our goal

• We are still suffering from prolonged uncertainty
• Says expectations for Q2, Q3 less favorable than for Q1
• Indisputable that inflation remains too low
• If there are adverse scenarios, ECB determined to act

U.S. stock-index futures rose solidly on Monday, as trade tensions between the United States and China eased after both sides agreed to hold off on slapping additional tariffs on their products in an effort to restart trade talks.

Global Stocks:

• Shrinking labour market supply is one factor in slower growth
• Increasing environmental standards also hurting growth
• China labour supply peaked in 2010-2011
• China growth rate is right around 6%
• Growth rate will moderate as economy grows
• Current account surplus to stay below 1% of GDP
• Consumption is now 2/3 of growth
• China still has plenty of savings

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Lyft (LYFT) initiated with a Neutral at Monness Crespi & Hardt

Microsoft (MSFT) target raised to $150 from $145 at Griffin Securities

TD Securities' analysts note that the details of China’s manufacturing PMI were soft as the overall PMI came in at 49.4 in June, the same as the month earlier.

“The breakdown revealed a decline in manufacturing output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times, output prices, purchases of inputs, new export orders, imports and expected production. Only stocks of inputs and input prices rose but remained below 50. Large enterprise sentiment dropped back below 50 but there were gains in small and medium-sized enterprises, albeit remaining below 50.”

China’s Caixin PMI was weaker than expected at 49.4 in June (market 50.1). The details revealed a weakening in output to 49 from 50.1 in May, the lowest reading since January 2019.

New orders also fell compared to the previous month, recording the lowest reading since January. This taken together with the continued contraction in the manufacturing PMI will cast a shadow over the positive weekend developments, and may limit the rally in risk assets.”

James Smith, a developed market economist at ING, notes that the UK manufacturing PMI came in at 48.0, its lowest level for over six years, suggesting that the sector will post negative growth through the second quarter. According to him, much of this has to do with the stockpiling frenzy of the first quarter, which saw firms scramble to boost inventory to try and insulate themselves against the possible supply chain disruptions of a "no deal" Brexit.

• "Much of this stock will have been imported from the EU, but given the global nature of modern supply chains, this stock-building process saw UK manufacturing rise in tandem. The decision to extend Article 50 has meant firms are grappling with how best to deal with all this extra stock – and first and foremost this has resulted in a fall in new orders and therefore production.
• We’d expect this trend to continue as we head into the summer months, and this is the main reason why we expect overall second-quarter growth to come in more or less flat. But as we approach the new October Brexit deadline, firms face a tricky decision.
• In some cases, firms may look to maintain the level of inventory they are holding, although this is costly (both in terms of storage and the opportunity cost). Companies may also find it harder to source the necessary warehousing space, with much of it reportedly already booked up ahead of Christmas. This means many firms will be forced to destock now and rebuild again as we move into the autumn – according to IHS/Markit, companies have begun reducing holdings of inputs/components."

Analysts at TD Securities are forecasting a new monthly drop in the U.S. manufacturing ISM index to 51.0, as they expect ongoing trade headwinds to have affected business sentiment in the June survey.

• “The average of the ISM-adjusted regional surveys signaled a 2pt decline from the May levels to 51.9, with retreats in five out of the six published surveys we track. We note, however, that most of these surveys were negatively biased by the US-Mexico trade spat given some responses had to be returned early in the month. That said, a recent spate of uninspiring growth in core durable goods orders and a weak Markit PMI survey also boost the odds for a downside surprise in June, in our view.”

• ECB is always seeking most effective methods to deliver on its mandate
• Further easing can be provided if required to deliver on its mandate
• Evidence shows that enhanced forward guidance has been effective
• It should be understood that a change to the date-based leg of the forward guidance is not intended to ratify market views

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s manufacturing PMI disappointed further in June, declining from 49.4 to 48.0.

• “The details were just as soft: production contracted at its fastest pace since October 2012, new orders had their greatest fall in almost 7 years, business optimism fell to its third-lowest level in the series history, and employment fell for the third month in a row.
• The report says that, "All the signs from the manufacturing sector point to another decline next month unless someone pulls a rabbit out of the Brexit hat."

Bert Colijn, a senior Eurozone economist at ING, notes that approaching the lowest level since the inception of the eurozone, unemployment continues to be the good news story of this part of the cycle. 

• "With a decline of more than 100 thousand in May, unemployment shows the labour market is not losing steam at all, despite the soft patch that the eurozone is currently in. This fuels household consumption growth, which is very welcome given the weakness in the rest of the economy.
• Monetary developments seem to be in line with the current modest growth pace. Adjusted loan growth to household and businesses were both stable in May at 3.3 and 3.9% growth YoY respectively. This means that it is not contributing to an acceleration of GDP growth, but also not pointing towards weakening thanks to a slower uptake in borrowing. Still, given the record low-interest-rate environment, faster loan growth could have been expected. The uncertainty about the global economy dampens the demand for loans significantly.
• The monetary aggregates are showing a similar picture, with M3 increasing slightly from 4.7 to 4.8% in May, while the more narrow estimate and better leading indicator M1 fell from 7.4 to 7.2%.
• Altogether, the bright spot remains the labour market as global uncertainty continues to hurt businesses and results in delayed investment decisions. With continued returns to employment, consumers are set to keep the economy afloat for the moment."

A Chinese central bank adviser said on Monday China's economy is likely to grow more than 6% this year provided a bitter trade dispute with the United States does not worsen, and hence will not need "very big, new stimulus measures" to stimulate growth.

"If the Sino-U.S. trade relationship does not deteriorate further, the possibility of keeping gross domestic product (GDP) growth over 6% this year is rather big," Ma Jun told on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 6-6.5% for 2019.

"There should be no need to take very big, new stimulus measures," he said.

• Economy 'still in a very sound place' but worries about negative sentiment.

• Emotions have gotten far out in front of the data.

• Warns of chill over business investment from trade uncertainty

The Chinese economists at Standard Chartered Bank (China) Limited offer their review on the Chinese economy, in the face of disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI data.

“China’s economy remains under pressure, despite the US-China trade truce easing concerns of a further escalation in the trade war. Official manufacturing PMI remained below 50 in June, suggesting the sector is still under pressure. We expect industrial production (IP) and fixed asset investment (FAI) growth to have improved marginally in June on policy support and seasonal patterns. Exports likely contracted on weaker external demand. CPI inflation likely edged down from a peak level, while PPI inflation may have eased. We expect money growth to have picked up and credit growth to have eased in June. We expect GDP growth to have eased to 6.3% y/y in Q2 from 6.4% in Q1-2019, given the weakness in April-May.”

According to the report from Eurostat, the euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.5% in May 2019, down from 7.6% in April 2019 and from 8.3% in May 2018. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since July 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.3% in May 2019, down from 6.4% in April 2019 and from 6.9% in May 2018. This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.

Eurostat estimates that 15.653 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 12.348 million in the euro area, were unemployed in May 2019. Compared with April 2019, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 71 000 in the EU28 and by 103 000 in the euro area. Compared with May 2018, unemployment fell by 1.277 million in the EU28 and by 1.133 million in the euro area.

In May 2019, 3.217 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 2.295 million were in the euro area. Compared with May 2018, youth unemployment decreased by 176 000 in the EU28 and by 133 000 in the euro area. In May 2019, the youth unemployment rate was 14.3% in the EU28 and 15.7% in the euro area, compared with 15.1% and 17.0% respectively in May 2018.

According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, the UK manufacturing sector continued to feel the reverberations of the unwinding of earlier pre-Brexit stockpiling activity during June. The already high stock levels at both manufacturers and their clients led to a scaling back of output and new order intakes, with demand from both domestic and export markets weakening.

At 48.0 in June, down from 49.4 in May, the headline seasonally adjusted PMI fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest level since February 2013. The PMI has posted below the no-change mark for two months in a row, the first back to-back declines since early 2013.

Manufacturing production contracted at the fastest pace since October 2012. Output was lowered in response to reduced intakes of new business, which fell to the greatest extent for almost seven years. New export orders declined for the third straight month and at a rate close to May's four-and-a-half year high. Business optimism dipped to its third-lowest level in the series history during June. That said, a number of companies still maintain a positive outlook. Employment fell for the third straight month in June, with job losses seen in the intermediate and investment goods sectors. Backlogs of work fell at one of the fastest rates for six-and a-half years. June saw a further increase in stocks of finished goods, although the rate of growth was down sharply from earlier in the year.

IHS Markit said that manufacturing operating conditions in the euro area deteriorated for a fifth successive month during June.

After accounting for seasonal factors, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark, falling to a three-month low of 47.6, from 47.7 in May. Moreover, the PMI was slightly weaker than the earlier flash reading of 47.8.

A challenging economic environment characterised by ongoing global trade tensions and political uncertainties, plus ongoing underperformance in the autos industry, led to another notable deterioration in manufacturing order books. June marked the ninth month in succession that a fall in new work has been registered, although the latest reduction was the weakest since January. Export orders meanwhile also fell at a marked pace and maintained the sequence of contraction that began last October.

Another fall in overall new work continued to weigh on production volumes, which were down modestly in June and for a fifth successive month. Firms again made notable inroads into their backlogs, which were cut for a tenth month in a row.

June marked the fourth successive month that a shortening of lead times has been registered and this helped contribute to a first fall in input prices for three years. Nonetheless, manufacturers continued to raise their own charges, though competitive pressures meant inflation was marginal and the weakest in the current 33-month sequence of rising charges.

Finally, business confidence remained historically subdued despite improving slightly to a four-month high in June.

According to the report from IHS Markit, Germany's manufacturing sector contracted further in June. Weaker external demand and a slowdown in the auto industry continued to weigh on order books, which in turn led to declines in both output and employment. Sub sector performances continued to vary, however, with growth in consumer goods contrasting with downturns in the intermediate and investment goods categories. Elsewhere, input prices fell at a faster rate in June, dragged lower by a further reduction in buying activity and associated destocking efforts. Output expectations meanwhile turned positive for the first time in nine months, albeit remaining subdued by historical standards.

The headline Germany Manufacturing PMI showed a deterioration in overall business conditions for the sixth month in a row in June. At 45.0, up from 44.3 in May, the index was at a four-month high, but still well below the neutral 50.0 mark and close to its lowest since 2012. The slight uptick in the PMI mainly reflected the new orders component, which showed the rate of decline easing for the third month in a row in June (albeit still running at a marked pace overall). A key weakness remained export sales, where there were reports of lower demand from Asia in particular.

Overseas investors have continued to buy Chinese shares even though tensions between the U.S. and China have at times threatened market sentiment, according to the president of UBS Securities.

Stocks in China rose on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at the G-20 summit to hold off slapping new tariffs on each other’s products.

Eugene Qian, president of UBS Securities, said on Monday that foreign investors have for the last 12 to 18 months been looking for opportunities to buy the so-called A shares — which are yuan-denominated stocks of Chinese companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

He told that an estimated $70 billion “should come into A shares by the end of the year.” That’s because foreign ownership of Chinese stocks is set to grow as major index providers such as MSCI add more A shares into their global indexes, Qian said at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.

The proportion of British manufacturers reporting a rise in their domestic orders has fallen to its lowest in seven years as Brexit uncertainty and the global slowdown take their toll, a leading employers group said.

Factories also showed the weakest picture for export orders in four years in the April-June period while a slight pick-up for services firms was not strong enough to make up for a weak start to the year, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

"These results indicate that underlying economic conditions in the UK remain decidedly downbeat," BCC economist Suren Thiru said.

The BCC's Quarterly Economic Survey showed price pressures for services firms and manufacturers fell to their lowest level since 2016. Thiru said the prospect of muted inflation would help consumers and allow the Bank of England to keep rates on hold as it waits for the outcome of Britain's Brexit impasse.

The Danske Bank analysts provide brief insights on the key economic events due on the cards later this Monday while markets will also keep an eye on the aftermath of the trade ceasefire

“In Europe, there will be ongoing discussions on who will head key European institutions after difficulties agreeing on the candidates. In the UK, the PMI manufacturing index for June is set to be released today. The index is likely to fall further, as it remains elevated compared with the equivalent euro area index and stockpiling ahead of Brexit. In the US, we start the week with ISM manufacturing for June. We expect ISM to decrease and come in at 50.8, down from 52.2. In our view, the US manufacturing sector is not immune to the global slowdown but we think the index will remain just above the important 50 threshold. That said, risk is skewed to the downside.”

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (FSO), real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 1.7% in May 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Economists had expected a 0.4% decrease. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 1.3%.

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 1.6% in nominal terms in May 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.5% compared with the previous month. 

Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed a 1.7% decrease in nominal turnover in May 2019 compared with May 2018 (in real terms -1.9%).

Excluding service stations, the retail sector showed a seasonally adjusted decline in nominal turnover of 1.5% compared with the previous month (in real terms -1.4%).

“Announcement on the next ECB President could be delayed until September according to an unnamed German official - Rehn would be an easy "neutral" appointment to make (as he's not French or German) if negotiations for the big political jobs remain seized up. As for markets, we think that any initial move in EUR would be based on a simple, knee-jerk Weidmann (up) or not-Weidmann (down) reaction. We would note that of the leading candidates, it seems that Rehn is the most dovish of the bunch, as he's the only one who has repeated Draghi's sentiment from the Sintra conference, that "In the absence of improvement... additional stimulus will be required." So he should be seen as more of a continuity candidate, carrying on Draghi's dovish and activist stance.” said analysts at TD Securities.

The United States and China agreed on Saturday to restart trade talks after President Donald Trump offered concessions including no new tariffs and an easing of restrictions on tech company Huawei in order to reduce tensions with Beijing.

China agreed to make unspecified new purchases of U.S. farm products and return to the negotiating table, Trump said. No deadline was set for progress on a deal, and the world’s two largest economies remain at odds over significant parts of an agreement.

“We’re right back on track,” Trump told reporters after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G-20 summit. “We’re holding back on tariffs and they’re going to buy farm products,” Trump said.

Trump tweeted hours later that the meeting with Xi went “far better than expected.” “The quality of the transaction is far more important to me than speed,” he tweeted. “I am in no hurry, but things look very good!”

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1519 (3916)

$1.1487 (2839)

$1.1450 (4422)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1347

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1296 (2810)

$1.1248 (2804)

$1.1199 (3040)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 5 is 71524 contracts (according to data from June, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1300 (4422);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2819 (1177)

$1.2788 (738)

$1.2768 (336)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2698

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2641 (1684)

$1.2596 (1387)

$1.2548 (2044)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 5 is 17157 ontracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2646);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 5 is 16168 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2222);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 28

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.