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- EUR: Still lots of positives in the price – ING
EUR: Still lots of positives in the price – ING
After inching back below 1.090, the next leg higher for the euro may need to wait for Russia to officially agree on the 30-day truce with Ukraine. Still, that may not be a major or long-lasting bullish driver for the euro, as a peace deal is already largely in the price, and the terms of the truce would need to be weighed against longer-term implications for Ukraine and the EU, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Decline to 1.080 is more likely
"On the macro side, we’ll look at industrial production figures for January in the eurozone today, which should not move markets. There is also some interest in tracking ECB members’ remarks following last week’s cut. Yesterday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that global trade events will make it 'impossible' for the ECB to constantly guarantee 2% inflation. That probably opens the question of whether an overhaul of the ECB’s inflation target is due: in practice, this is already being interpreted in a rather flexible way, and only plans of a fiscal boost in Germany have averted rates to be cut to or below 2%, in our view."
"Speaking of which, markets remain on the lookout for an official multi-party agreement on defence and infrastructure spending in Germany. A couple of days ago, the Green party said it expected a deal with Chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz by the end of the week. Once that is announced, we could see a tick higher in the euro, although markets are already almost fully pricing it in."
"Our view for the remainder of March remains that a decline to 1.080 is more likely than another rally to 1.10 in EUR/USD."
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