Dow Jones Industrial Average softens as jobs data withers

• The Dow Jones fell 150 points on Wednesday after US jobs figures missed the mark.
• ADP hiring data slowed more than expected, and wage growth shrank to a two-year low.
• Investors await the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes from December’s rate cut assessment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ground its way lower once again on Wednesday. The index backslid a choppy 150 points after equities turned tepid on the back of a misfire in preview jobs data ahead of this week’s key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. 

ADP Employment Change showed a slower pace of hiring than markets expected in December, easing to 122K versus the expected 140K and November’s 146K. ADP wage data also pumped the brakes and hit its slowest pace since mid-2021.

The key print on Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes from the December rate call. The Fed trimmed interest rates one final time by 25 bps to wrap up 2024, but now it looks set to hold off on any further rate cuts until the midpoint of 2025 as the US economy chugs along. Policy concerns about incoming President Donald Trump weigh on policymakers, even as they insist they don’t.

US markets will close early on Thursday, so traders should expect a tightening in market volumes during the American trading window. US operations are winding down in observance of the passing of former US President Jimmy Carter, who died in late December at the age of 100.

Dow Jones news

Equities listed on the Dow Jones were split roughly down the middle on Wednesday, but concentrated losses in key stocks are dragging the average to the low side. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) tumbled to a new yearly low despite reaching ‘Fast Track’ status with the Food & Drug Administration for several of its new pharmaceutical offerings. JNJ is now down around 3% on the day and pushing below $142 per share.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones’ bearish tilt, which began in late November, continues to weigh on the major equity index. The DJIA is on pace to close in the red for a sixth consecutive week and remains down nearly 6% from its all-time peak of 45,071 in November. Of the last 19 consecutive trading days, the Dow Jones has closed flat or in the red for all but three of them, including a record-setting run of 11 straight bearish sessions.

Despite a near-term bearish swing, downside momentum still faces significant headwinds. The DJIA is still trading north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,200, and bidders are still trying to get their feet under them and muscle price action back above the 50-day EMA near 43,150.

Dow Jones daily chart