Gold price bounces off one-week low; lacks bullish conviction ahead of FOMC meeting

• Gold price stages a modest recovery from a one-week low touched earlier this Monday.
• Geopolitical tensions, softer US bond yields and USD benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD.
• Bets for a less dovish Fed warrant caution for bull ahead of the FOMC meeting this week.

Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher following an Asian session downtick to the $2,644-2,643 region, or a one-week low, and for now, seems to have stalled its sharp retracement slide from over a one-month high touched last Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new week on a softer note amid a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. Adding to this, geopolitical risks and uncertainties over US President-elect Donald Trump's policies turn out to be key factors offering support to the safe-haven precious metal.

Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates next year amid signs that the progress in lowering inflation toward the 2% target has stalled. This should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD, which, in turn, cap the upside for the non-yielding Gold price. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the outcome of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.

Gold price attract some haven flows amid geopolitical risks; upside potential seems limited

• Israel agreed on plans to allocate state money to expand its presence and double its population in the occupied Golan Heights, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the region. 
• Israeli strikes in Gaza killed at least 53 Palestinians, while the Israeli military said that its air and ground forces in the north of the enclave killed dozens of militants and captured others.
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to wipe Ukraine off the map and could come after other parts of Europe next.
• The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that Israeli fighter jets targeted the missile launchers in southern Syria and carried out an air strike on radars in eastern Syria.
• The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are pricing in over a 93% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points on Wednesday. 
• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) released last week reinforced expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of its rate-cutting cycle next year. 
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond rose to a three-week high on Friday amid bets for a less dovish Fed, which should cap gains for the non-yielding Gold price. 
• Monday's economic docket features the release of global flash PMIs, which, might influence the broader risk sentiment and provide some impetus to the safe-haven precious metal.
• The focus, however, will be on the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday. Traders will also take cues from the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks.

Gold price needs to break below the $2,643 area for bears to seize near-term control

From a technical perspective, the Asian session low, around the $2,644-2,643 area, coincides with a congestion zone. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag the Gold price to the $2,625 region en route to the monthly low, around the $2,614 zone and the $2,605-2,600 pivotal support. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.

On the flip side, the $2,665-2,666 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $2,677 area, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $2,700 round figure. The subsequent move up could extend further towards the monthly swing high, around the $2,726 zone, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.