With another trade war looming, China is going to dig deeper into its pockets to stimulate demand and likely to keep its growth target at c.5% for 2025; budget deficit may be widened to 3.5% of GDP. 2025 growth forecast is maintained at 4.5%, as stimulus should partially offset higher tariffs, Standard Chartered’s economists note.
“President-elect Trump announced higher tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China even before his inauguration. We think it is now unrealistic for China to continue to count on external demand to ride out the housing market correction. Net exports’ contribution to GDP growth could turn negligible in 2025 from over 1ppt in 2024, according to our estimate. We do not think the authorities will respond to tariff increases with substantial CNY devaluation, and expect consumption-enabling policy stimulus to mitigate the tariff impact.”
“The December Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) will likely set a pro-growth policy tone. An ambitious growth target is likely to be adopted to anchor market expectations and change the deflationary mindset. We expect the official budget deficit to be widened to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 from 3.0% in 2024, and a 25-30% increase in central and local special bond issuance to finance additional spending and facilitate bank recapitalisation and the local debt swap programme. We estimate that a positive fiscal impulse would boost growth by 0.3-0.5ppt. The central bank appears prepared to inject sufficient liquidity to absorb the expected surge in government bond supply, and moderately cut policy rates to prevent a rise in real interest rates.”
“We expect the government to introduce more measures to boost housing demand and contain supply, including deploying additional resources to support ‘whitelist’ projects and curtail housing inventory. We estimate that a moderation in the property investment decline to 5% in 2025 from c.10% in 2024 would reduce the growth drag by c.0.3ppt.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.