Crude Oil ticks up rumours picking up on OPEC+ discussions

• Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire deal. 
• OPEC+ has started discussions on its production restart plans. 
• The US Dollar Index edges slightly lower ahead of a chunky economic data calendar ahead. 

Crude Oil ticks up on Wednesday, flirting with a 1% gain on the day. The move comes with several Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) delegates confirming talks are underway for another delay of plans for its production normalization. The postponement could take months, with even talks of a pushback to the second quarter of 2025, Bloomberg reports. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of currencies, is struggling again ahead of Thursday and Friday's Thanksgiving festivities. The release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes on Wednesday was the cue for traders to start taking profit in the Greenback rally, with only a rate cut pause or an actual rate cut under consideration for the upcoming Fed meeting in December. 

With the shortened trading week, all main economic data releases, such as a revised reading for the third quarter of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), and the Durable Goods Orders reading for October, will be unleashed this Wednesday. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.81 and Brent Crude at $72.45.

Oil news and market movers: OPEC+ rumours buzzing

• A ceasefire deal has been signed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and should see tensions in the Middle East fade from now, with a risk premium to be further priced out of Crude Oil.
• Key OPEC+ nations began discussions on Tuesday to delay the Oil production restart planned for January, potentially for several months, delegates said, reported by Bloomberg. 
• Goldman Sachs joins RBC in its latest investor note, pointing to signs of increasing compliance with OPEC+ production quotas making it likely the alliance will decide to extend output cuts set to end in January when it meets this weekend, Reuters reports.
• The weekly Crude Stockpile release from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday came in at a drawdown of 5.935 million barrels compared to the previous build of 4.753 million.
• At 15:30 GMT, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly Crude Stockpile Change findings. Expectations are for a draw of 1.3 million barrels in the week ending on November 22 compared to the previous build of 0.545 million. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Whenever, wherever will OPEC+ normalize

Crude Oil price is attempting to recover again this week after a failed attempt on Tuesday. The question at hand is when OPEC+ could be able to control the Crude price action again, with markets already pricing in another delay towards the March statement and later dates in 2025. Without additional measures to limit supply, a return for Crude to higher prices is out of the question. 

On the upside, the pivotal level at $71.46 and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.40 are the two main resistances. The 200-day SMA at $76.32 is still far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further. In its rally towards that 200-day SMA, the pivotal level at $75.27 could still slow down any upticks. 

On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart