Crude Oil tries to claim $70 as geopolitics supports price

• Crude Oil flirts with a weekly gain of 5%, fueled by geopolitical news. 
• Russia has put a Polish military base on top of its target list for the next retaliation. 
• The US Dollar Index broke a fresh two-year high after preliminary European PMIs cast a recession shadow over Europe.

Crude Oil price steadies on Friday and tries to claim the $70 level after surging over 4.5% so far this week, fueled by fresh escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are rushing to get the tactical upper hand ahead of possible resolution talks once President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January 2025. One of the new elements in the escalation is that Russia apparently has put a Polish (Poland is a NATO member) military base at the top of its target list for any subsequent retaliation if Ukraine attacks again, Yahoo News reports. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is firmly up after European preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers came in substantially below estimates in November. The data suggests that business activity in the Eurozone Manufacturing and Services sectors contracted, fueling the US exceptionalism with an inflow in the US Dollar. Later on Friday, the US PMI numbers are going to be released and might fuel a second round of inflow in case of an upbeat surprise.

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $69.55 and Brent Crude at $73.32

Oil news and market movers: Weight added to geopolitics

• In the next step in the escalation between Russia and Ukraine, Yahoo News reports that Russia has added a Polish military base to its list of targets for when Ukraine fires missiles again into Russia. 
• Bloomberg reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to have a security meeting later this Friday. The agenda is still yet to be confirmed. 
• OPEC+ delegates said they assume next month’s meeting on plans to restore Oil production will be held online rather than at their Vienna headquarters as originally planned, Reuters reports. The meeting is set to be held on December 1. 
• At 18:00 GMT, the weekly Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count is to be released. The previous count showed 478 rigs operational. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Is it possible to scale up further?

Crude Oil price is set to close this week on a high note, booking nearly 5% of gains. However, traders have been asking themselves if there is more upside to this tension-fueled trade. Several analysts have pointed out that these recent moves might have been the last few steps towards any deal, with both countries just trying to pick up the best possible cards to be used during any negotiations. 

On the upside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.13 was tested earlier on Friday, and we must see a daily close above it if Crude Oil prices want to head higher. Next up is the 100-day SMA at $72.77. The 200-day SMA at $76.45 is still far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further. 

On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart