HUF: How hawkish can the NBH be? – ING
19.11.2024, 10:27

HUF: How hawkish can the NBH be? – ING

Today's meeting of the National Bank of Hungary should be a non-event in terms of a rate decision. Central bankers have made it clear that the cutting cycle is on hold for some time due to high financial instability, meaning too high a EUR/HUF. Numbers from the economy continue to surprise on the downside, with third-quarter GDP confirming a return to technical recession and headline inflation surprisingly holding close to the central bank's target. In fact, Hungarian headline inflation is the closest to the target among Central and Estern Europe (CEE) peers at the moment. However, the central bank's focus is on EUR/HUF which has repeatedly broken above 410, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes.

EUR/HUF has repeatedly broken above 410

“Although the market was still pricing in rate hikes in late October and early November, these expectations have calmed since the US election and the market has rebuilt some rate cuts into the longer horizon of the FRA curve. Still, the NBH does not appear to have won. While market positioning is less short on the HUF than before the US election, the market still sees EUR/HUF heading more to the upside.”

“So the NBH will have to show enough hawkish rhetoric today to be able to return EUR/HUF to more acceptable levels. At the same time, the NBH will want to avoid any hints of an additional rate hike or other stronger measures. EUR/HUF briefly returned to 410 yesterday but surprised with a reversal below 407 at the end of trading.”

“Visibly the market is looking for a way to go. However, we believe 410 will remain the point of gravity in the current global environment, which the NBH does not fully control – namely the negative for the entire CEE region led by EUR/USD pushing lower.”

© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.

Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

Politika sprečavanja pranja novca

Upozorenje o rizicima

Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.

Politika poverenja

Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.

Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.

Банковни
транcфери
Feedback
Lajv čet E-mail
Povratak na vrh
Izaberi lokaciju / jezik