- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- EUR: Building risk premium – ING
EUR: Building risk premium – ING
The wide short-term swap rate spread between USD and EUR is justifying a good deal of the ongoing EUR/USD selloff. However, with other market factors added to estimating the near-term fair value of EUR/USD – such as equities and commodity prices – there are signs of a growing risk premium in excess of 1.5%. Does that imply a 1.5%+ correction higher in EUR/USD is due? Not necessarily, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD upside correction is plausible
“We strongly believe that since 5 November we have entered a phase where a euro-negative risk premium will become the new normal given the risks to the eurozone associated with Trump’s foreign/trade agenda. From that perspective, and looking at historical dynamics, a 1.5% risk premium would still be rather contained, as that can easily amount to 4%+ should markets price in more geopolitical and/or protectionism-related risks.”
“For now, we believe some sort of EUR/USD upside correction is plausible, but we still believe markets will take the opportunity to sell the rallies in the pair, and a long-lasting return above 1.070 does not seem likely.”
“Today’s eurozone calendar includes the first revision of 3Q EZ GDP and employment figures, as well as the minutes of the October ECB meeting. Those could include a few dovish hints, although markets may still want to see more evidence of a slowdown in data or a lower inflation print before pricing in a 50bp cut in December.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
