Trading the BoE – TDS
06.11.2024, 15:02

Trading the BoE – TDS

TDS expects the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bps with a 7-2 majority, and leave guidance relatively unchanged, implying a cautious approach to further cuts. The MPC's treatment of the recent budget will have important consequences for the market's interpretation of future policy moves. A BoE cut is well priced in and is unlikely to be a big driver of the GBP. Markets are likely to keep digesting the results of US elections, TDS’ analysts note.

Three scenarios to consider

“Hawkish (20%, +10bp, +15bp, +0.40%). The MPC takes the OBR's estimates of the budget impact at face value, and boosts inflation and growth more than we expect. It cuts rates, leaves guidance unchanged, but the size of the upgrades to growth and inflation over the forecast horizon suggest a slower pace of rate cuts.”

“Base Case (70%, -6bp, -8bp, -0.10%). The MPC cuts rates in a 7-2 vote and maintains its cautious guidance that cuts are likely to continue, but without any clear signal for timing, leaving a December pause firmly on the table. Projections incorporate less inflation-worrying impact from the recent budget, with softer inflation in Year 1, and broadly unchanged projections elsewhere. Year 2 and Year 3 inflation remain below the 2% target.”

“Dovish (10%, -10bp, -15bp, -0.50%). The MPC cuts rates in a more definitive 8-1 or 9-0 vote, and points to the rapid recent decline in inflation as a reason to be prepared for more cuts ahead. While there's no explicit signal of a December cut, the tone opens the door wide open to a cut then, and at subsequent meetings.”

© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.

Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

Politika sprečavanja pranja novca

Upozorenje o rizicima

Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.

Politika poverenja

Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.

Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.

Банковни
транcфери
Feedback
Lajv čet E-mail
Povratak na vrh
Izaberi lokaciju / jezik