USD: A Republican clean sweep to fuel dollar strength, higher yields – MUFG
06.11.2024, 13:47

USD: A Republican clean sweep to fuel dollar strength, higher yields – MUFG

Former President Donald Trump is on his way to the White House again with remaining votes in Pennsylvania not enough to lead to Harris taking a state that is looking essential for a road to the White House for the Democrats. With Pennsylvania lost Associated Press has just called the election for Trump, MUFG’s FX analysts note.

Trump wins with FX reaction as expected so far

“EUR/USD is now 1.9% lower and we see scope for this drop to extend further lower from here. If anything this election result is looking closer to a landslide relative to how close this election was anticipated to be. The figures look to be showing Trump winning over 300 electoral college votes that will be a huge endorsement of the policies he has been campaigning on. Trump won 304 electoral college votes in 2016 but a key difference in 2024 is that Trump is on track to win the popular vote which will reinforce Trump’s determination to implement the policies he campaigned on.”

“We are reportedly going to hear from Tump soon which may come prior to an official call on his victory but that won’t matter on this occasion. Harris has indicated she will not speak to the nation until tomorrow when she will of course be conceding defeat. We indicated in our FX Outlook in October and November that a Trump victory would lead to a potential 7-8% stronger US dollar relative to the forecasts if Harris won. That implied EUR/USD dropping below the 1.0500-level (to around 1.0300-1.0400) by the end of this year.”

“We also suggested a possible initial gain for the dollar over the first 24hrs of 2-3% and the DXY as of now is up close to 1.9%. What kind of speech Trump gives when he speaks this evening may provide some sign of initial policy focus but there is no reason not to believe that he will focus on tax cutting policies (if the Republicans win the House); trade tariffs and deportations. All inflationary and all therefore likely to lift yields and the US dollar.”

© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.

Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

Politika sprečavanja pranja novca

Upozorenje o rizicima

Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.

Politika poverenja

Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.

Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.

Банковни
транcфери
Feedback
Lajv čet E-mail
Povratak na vrh
Izaberi lokaciju / jezik