The clear victory for president Trump overnight poses significant downside risks to the growth outlook for the eurozone – and especially that of export-orientated Germany and the Netherlands, ABN AMRO’s economists note.
“Trump’s flagship policy is for a universal tariff on all US imports, with a rate that (depending on which speech you listen to) has ranged from 10-20%. We estimate that a 10% universal tariff would lead to a sharp fall in eurozone exports, and hit eurozone growth to the tune of 1.5pp over the coming years, meaning the economy would likely see a renewed stagnation instead of continuing along its recovery path.”
“While it remains highly uncertain to what degree Trump will go ahead with his tariff plans, the high likelihood that his Republican party will gain a House majority to accompany its new Senate majority significantly raises the risk that he goes ahead with the full tariff agenda. We are currently reviewing our base case for the US and eurozone economies and will have much more to say on this over the coming weeks.”
“For now, we judge the downside risks to eurozone growth and inflation to have significantly increased, which would mean the ECB cutting rates at a potentially faster pace and/or rates going even lower than our current expectation for a 1.5% terminal rate. We will give further updates in due course. In the meantime, see our previous write-up here on what Trump would mean for Europe.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.