RBNZ: A high bar for a 75bps cut – Standard Chartered
01.11.2024, 14:56

RBNZ: A high bar for a 75bps cut – Standard Chartered

We think the bar is high for a 75bps OCR cut given the prevailing economic backdrop. Inflation in New Zealand is back within the target band, driven by disinflation in tradables. But non-tradables inflation remains stubbornly high; housing and insurance among the sticky components. NZD to underperform on rising odds of a Trump-Republican sweep and dovish RBNZ expectations, Standard Chartered’s economists Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia note.

Softening inflation, hard decisions

“Inflation, at 2.2% y/y in Q3-2024 (3.3% in Q2) – a touch softer than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ’s) 2.3% forecast ­– is back within the central bank’s 1-3% target band. This has led markets to anticipate more aggressive rate cuts, with latest market pricing indicating c.57bps of easing at the 27 November; this equates to around a 30% implied probability of a 75bps cut.”

“Historically, the RBNZ has tended to favour larger official cash rate (OCR) adjustments during periods of significant market shocks and economic surprises (Figure 1). During past crises, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the RBNZ responded with outsized OCR cuts of up to 150bps. Conversely, the Q3-2022 CPI that printed 0.8ppt above RBNZ forecasts led to a 75bps hike.”

“We do not think that the prevailing growth and inflation backdrop necessitates an outsized policy rate cut. While a 75bps cut cannot be ruled out at the November meeting, we think the bar for such a move is high, and we maintain our call for a 50bps cut. We expect the RBNZ to tread cautiously at this stage when contemplating further rate cuts, balancing the risks of an unintended boost to the housing market and NZD instability – both of which are key factors influencing the transmission of monetary policy to CPI inflation.”  

 

© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.

Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

Politika sprečavanja pranja novca

Upozorenje o rizicima

Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.

Politika poverenja

Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.

Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.

Банковни
транcфери
Feedback
Lajv čet E-mail
Povratak na vrh
Izaberi lokaciju / jezik