The US Dollar Index (DXY) is paring some losses on Friday’s European morning trading, with buyers returning after a four-day losing streak. A mild risk aversion ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report has increased support for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
The unexpected decline in US jobless claims and the sticky Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index failed to provide significant support to the US Dollar (USD), which hit fresh weekly lows on Thursday.
Stronger-than-expected Consumer Prices Index (CPI) in the Eurozone and some hawkish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, lifted the Euro (EUR) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), respectively, and added pressure on the USD.
The DXY index is moving within a horizontal channel, but the broader bullish trend appears to be losing steam and technical indicators show signs of a potential trend shift.
The 4-hour chart shows a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action capped below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
These negative signs keep the support area at 103.85 in play. Below here, the next target would be 103.40. To the upside, the index has some resistance at 104.20 ahead of the October peak at 104.63.
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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