- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- HUF: Will MNB have to intervene? – Commerzbank
HUF: Will MNB have to intervene? – Commerzbank
The Hungarian forint’s depreciation is accelerating relative to eastern European peers, especially after a negative Q3 GDP reading. Against the euro, the forint has surpassed the 405 level and seems headed towards the 410 mark. Commerzbank’s EUR/HUF forecast is 415.0 for end-2025. But, this current development does not seem to be just an orderly progression towards such a target, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.
MNB’s hawkish stance is justified
“The forint is prone to greater volatility and high-beta swings during risk-off episodes, and can get somewhat out of hand, needing emergency responses by MNB. In such scenarios, exchange rate pass-through can become a dominant inflation driver – hence, MNB should like to arrest developments early.”
“What we mean by intervention is that MNB might have to come out and further tweak its monetary policy guidance verbally – possibly warning about a reversal into rate hikes in case the situation worsens.”
“If things were to progress in this direction, government backing in the media would be crucial. Any contradictory remarks by government officials could have a rapidly destabilising effect. Thereafter, in the event that market conditions continued to worsen for external reasons, and EUR/HUF reached say 420, actual rate hikes would become necessary. Even if they would not be strictly necessary for inflation targeting, they would be necessary for the exchange rate – because this would be the market’s way of testing the central bank.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
