Crude Oil struggles to hold $70.00 as markets become more bearish

• Crude Oil struggles to hold $70.00, with more downside expected. 
• Traders expect longer sluggish demand as markets reprice Fed rate cut prospects. 
• The US Dollar Index broke above 103.80 and tested 104.00, primed for more upside.

Crude Oil struggles to hold ground and orbits around the $70.00 level on Tuesday. The pressure on Oil’s price comes from markets repricing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut projections in the near future. With decreasing odds of an aggressive rate cut path by the Fed, economic growth and energy demand might be killed, which means a bleak outlook for Oil in the coming months. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against six other currencies, consolidates near an 11-week high of 104.00 on Tuesday. With the surge in US yields, the rate differential sees the US overshadow other main continents, such as Europe or Asia. This supports the DXY, which may rise further in the coming weeks to 105.00. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $69.78 and Brent Crude at $73.76

Oil news and market movers: Rates hurting Oil demand

• Money managers have cut their net-long speculative positions in ICE Brent futures for the first time in five weeks, Bloomberg reports. 
• Additionally, the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that WTI Crude futures saw their net-long position fall for a third week in a row, Bloomberg reported. 
• Norway rose its Oil output in September, up 1.5% above its forecast, Reuters reports. 
• At 20:30 GMT, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release the weekly Crude Stockpile Change data for the week ending October 18. There is no forecast, with a small draw of 1.58 million barrels seen the prior week. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Markets strip away geopolitics

Crude Oil price is facing more and more pressure to trade at more discount. Markets are stripping away geopolitics in the Middle East, with nearly all external parties not willing to get involved in a proxy war, while Israel and Iran are escalating tensions at a very slow pace. While supply is richly flowing, the markets look flooded with Oil for the rest of 2024, according to the recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report.

There is a challenging path to recovery for Crude Oil in the coming days. First, the pivotal level at $71.46, which was strong enough to catch the falling knife on October 14, must be regained again with a daily close above it. Once from there, the hefty technical level at $75.13, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a few pivotal lines, is possibly the first big hurdle ahead. 

On the downside, traders need to look much lower, at $67.12, a level that supported the price in May-June 2023. In case that level breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75 followed by $64.38, the low of 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart