GBP/USD crosses 1.34 for the first time since March of 2023

• GBP/USD continues Pound rally on Greenback weakness.
• US consumer sentiment data shows US consumer still fear inflation.
• Markets have leaned into higher expectations of further outsized Fed cuts.

GBP/USD extended the ongoing Pound Sterling rally for another consecutive day, crossing the 1.3400 handle and chalking in fresh 30-month highs after the US Dollar broadly weakened on Tuesday. The Greenback’s market-wide withering gave Cable exactly what it needed to keep the current Pound Sterling bull run on-balance.

Wednesday will be a quiet showing for the Pound Sterling on the data docket, although GBP traders will be keeping one eye out for statements from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene. MPC Member Greene will be speaking at the North East Chamber of Commerce in England.

The American side of Tuesday’s economic data docket is similarly under-weighted for the midweek market session. August’s New Homes Sales MoM figure is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction, and will be followed by a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler, who will be speaking at the Harvard Kennedy School in Cambridge.

Consumer confidence deteriorated across the board on Tuesday, and consumer expectations of 12-month inflation accelerated to 5.2%. Consumers also reported a general weakening of their six-month family financial situation outlook, and consumer assessments of overall business conditions have turned negative.

Backsliding consumer confidence results sparked a renewed bid in rate markets for a follow-up jumbo cut in November. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in nearly 60% odds of a second 50 bps rate cut on November 7, and only 40% odds of a more reasonable 25 bps follow-up rate trim. Rate traders were pricing in roughly even odds of a 50 or 25 bps rate cut at the beginning of the week.

GBP/USD price forecast

CAble buyers continue to shrug off all near-term warning signs, pushing GBP/USD deeper into overbought territory. The pair has gained over 3% over the last two weeks, rallying from the last swing low on daily candlesticks into the 1.3000 handle.

With price action trading north of 1.3400, short sellers are faced with difficult choices; while Cable looks increasingly appetizing for a snap play to the low side, a lack of technical resistance means timing a short entry carries excessive risks to bid directly against still-healthy bullish momentum.

GBP/USD daily chart