- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- Gold: Nearly half of trend followers positions to be liquidated – TDS
Gold: Nearly half of trend followers positions to be liquidated – TDS
For the first time in months, CTAs could start liquidating Gold in a downtape over the coming week, reinforcing the set-up for our tactical short. Alternative takes on the positioning set-up are of the view that Western money managers can continue to increase their length, underscored by a naked read of CFTC positioning data which suggests speculator positioning is only a touch frothy and well below its historical maximum, TDS commodity analyst Daniel Ghali notes.
Possible CTA selling activity to start over the coming week
“Our advanced positioning analytics, however, provide an edge on this read. Our point of contention: accounting for the leverage context suggests it is already effectively maxed out. CTAs' and risk parity portfolios' positioning is constrained by the leverage environment, which explains why we believe the CFTC data has already effectively reached a local maximum even though it remains below its historical max.”
“Macro fund positioning is also effectively maxed out. This positioning remains statistically consistent with more than 400bps of Fed cuts over the coming year, and is at levels that marked local highs in several previous cycles, followed by drawdowns in the 7%-10% range.”
“With several cohorts simultaneously vulnerable, a continued downtape in Gold can finally start to catalyze CTA selling activity over the coming week, reinforcing our view that the first cohort to blink can snowball subsequent selling activity. After all, we estimate that nearly half of trend followers positions will be liquidated in a revisit towards $2400/oz. Downside risks are now more potent.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
