- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- EUR: ECB decoupling to be tested – ING
EUR: ECB decoupling to be tested – ING
The EUR/USD drop this morning appears largely USD-driven, although admittedly the euro does look on less stable ground when considering the room for European Central Bank dovish repricing compared to the Fed’s, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.
A retest of the 1.110 support is possible
“The two-year OIS USD:EUR spread tightened again below 100bp after Powell’s speech (now at 96bp). That could argue for EUR/USD above 1.12 but the softer risk environment is favouring some profit-taking, and there may be some speculation that some rewidening in that rate differential is due.”
“Indeed, markets are pricing in one 50bp move by the Fed by year-end (100bp in total), but only 64bp by the ECB over the last three meetings of 2024. The investor community may not be consistently at ease with this decoupling of Fed-ECB rate expectations, and the risks are probably that some easing is priced back into the ECB curve to realign it with the Fed. Germany’s return to recession in the second quarter is a narrative that can contribute to that realignment.”
“EUR/USD may struggle to trade back closer to 1.120 in the next few days as the lack of key US data probably favours the dollar on the margin, and a retest of the 1.110 support is possible. But we don’t see the conditions for the recent EUR/USD rally to be substantially unwound. From tomorrow, eurozone CPI figures will start pouring in, which will be a key test for that ECB-Fed decoupling story.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
