The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following a retracement of its intraday gains. This downside may be linked to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, who said on Wednesday, “We won’t raise rates when markets are unstable,” according to Reuters.
The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 30 and 31 showed that several members believe economic activity and prices are progressing as anticipated by the BoJ. The members are targeting a neutral rate of "at least around 1%" as a medium-term goal.
BoJ’s Summary of Opinions: Members see prices and growth developing in line with outlook, read more.
The downside for the safe-haven Yen could be restrained due to the increased risk-off mood amid rising tensions in the Middle East. According to two US intelligence officials, Iran and its allies are preparing for possible retaliation against Israel following the recent killings of a top military commander of Iran’s Hezbollah in Lebanon and a senior Hamas leader in Tehran, as reported by CNN.
The US Dollar (USD) faces challenges as traders expect a deeper rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 72.0% probability of a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September, up from 11.8% a week earlier.
USD/JPY trades around 146.50 on Thursday. The daily chart analysis shows that the pair consolidates within a descending channel, suggesting a bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is remaining below 30, signaling a short-term rebound.
Regarding support, the USD/JPY pair may test the lower boundary of the descending channel around a throwback support at the 140.25 level, which was recorded in December.
In terms of resistance, the USD/JPY pair tests the upper boundary of the descending channel, aligned with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around the 148.15 level. A breakout above this level could reduce bearish momentum and enable the pair to test the "throwback support turned resistance" at 154.50.
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.09% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.65% | -0.15% | -0.13% | |
EUR | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.14% | -0.57% | -0.06% | -0.04% | |
GBP | 0.06% | -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.19% | -0.62% | -0.13% | -0.09% | |
JPY | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.22% | -0.63% | -0.17% | -0.13% | |
CAD | 0.21% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.22% | -0.43% | 0.07% | 0.09% | |
AUD | 0.65% | 0.57% | 0.62% | 0.63% | 0.43% | 0.50% | 0.52% | |
NZD | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.17% | -0.07% | -0.50% | 0.02% | |
CHF | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.09% | -0.52% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds.
The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. With wage inflation becoming a cause of concern, the BoJ looks to move away from ultra loose policy, while trying to avoid slowing the activity too much.
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