USD/INR gathers strength ahead of Indian CPI, US PPI data

• The Indian Rupee weakens in Friday’s early Asian session.
• The renewed demand for US Dollar and recovery of crude oil prices undermine the INR. 
• India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June will be the highlights on Friday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) loses traction on Friday amid the modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD). The demand for the Greenback from state-run banks and local importers limits the INR’s potential gains. Additionally, the rebound of crude oil prices also exerts some selling pressure on the local currency as India is the third largest consumer of crude oil in the world, after the United States and China. 

On the other hand, the positive trends in the Indian stock market, sustained foreign inflows, and India’s strong macroeconomic growth might underpin the INR. Also, the rising expectation of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September after the softer US inflation data is likely to weigh on the USD and cap the upside for the USD/INR pair in the near term.

Later on Friday, Investors will keep an eye on the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show an increase of 4.8% in June. Also, the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output will be released. On the US docket, the US June Producer Price Index (PPI) and the preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment gauge will be published.  

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains sensitive to multiple headwinds

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that shifting employment into construction, services, and manufacturing might boost India's GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points.
• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% on a yearly basis in June, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. This reading came in below the market consensus of 3.1%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.1% MoM in June, the lowest level in more than three years. 
• The annual core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 3.3% YoY in June, below the forecast and May's increase of 3.4%. The figure was up 0.1% on a monthly basis.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed on Friday that the recent inflation report was “excellent,” adding that the reports provided proof that the central bank is on track to meet its 2% target.
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly acknowledged improving inflation figures on Thursday. Daly expects further easing in both price pressures and the labor market to warrant interest rate cuts.
• Financial markets saw nearly 85% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, up from the 70% chance seen before the CPI report. Two rate cuts are anticipated this year.

Technical analysis: USD/INR goes into consolidation in the near term

The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. According to the daily chart, the USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe unchanged above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory above the 50-midline, suggesting that the EMA support is likely to hold rather than break. However, in the shorter term, the pair has remained inside its month-long range since March 21. 

Any follow-through buying above the upper boundary of the trading range at 83.65 could lead to a retest of the all-time high of 83.75. Extended gains will see a rally to the 84.00 psychological barrier. 

Sustained trading below the 100-day EMA at 83.37 could pave the way to the 83.00 round mark. The next downside target is seen at 82.82, a low of January 12.