US Dollar steadies  ahead of the summer kickoff

• The US Dollar trades relatively flat despite USD/JPY near 160.00. 
• All eyes will be on US Q1 GDP and PCE data for May as focal points this week. 
• The US Dollar index pivots around June’s high. 

The US Dollar (USD) is going sideways to a touch lower in the European trading session on Monday, with markets seeing headlines on the political difficulties around Europe fading into the background. This means some fading in the safe-haven flows into the Greenback. Some counterweight, though, comes from the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is devaluing further against the Greenback and has the 160.00 level in reach, where the Ministry of Finance of Japan intervened last time.  

On the economic data front, there are some lighter numbers to start the week with, such as the Chicago Fed Activity Index for May and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June. Besides that, the US Treasury is heading back to markets to allot some US debt while US Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will close off this Monday with some comments. 

Daily digest market movers: Some minor optimism 

• At 12:30 GMT, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May is set to be released. April’s number came in at -0.23, with no forecast available for the May number.
• At 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June will be unleashed. Previous print was at -19.4, with no forecast available. 
• The US Treasury is set to auction a 3-month and a 6-month bill at 15:30 GMT. 
• At 18:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly delivers remarks and participates in a Q&A session with Deidre Bosa, "TechCheck" Anchor at CNBC.
• Equities are not breaking any pots on Monday, with minor gains and losses on the quote board. There are no real outliers to report during the European trading session. 
• The CME Fedwatch Tool is backing a rate cut in September, with odds now standing at 59.5% for a 25 basis point cut. A rate pause stands at a 34.1% chance, while a 50-basis-point rate cut has a slim 6.4% possibility. 
• The US 10-year benchmark rate is trading at 4.25%, rather steady since the end of last week.  

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Watch out for USD/JPY

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is easing a touch on Monday, and while economic data will be very important again, as always, traders will need to have a hawkeye on the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) this week. With that forex pair trading near 160.00, markets are gearing up for possible intervention risk from the Japanese government. The last time the Japanese government intervened, the USD/JPY dove 5% lower, and the DXY dropped lower to 104.52.

On the upside, there are no significant changes to the levels traders need to watch out for. The first level to watch is 105.88, which triggered a rejection at the start of May and on Friday last week. Further up, the biggest challenge remains at 106.51, the year-to-date high from April 16. 

On the downside, the 105.52 level is the first support ahead of the trifecta of Simple Moving Averages (SMA). First is the 55-day SMA at 105.20, safeguarding the 105.00 round figure. A touch lower, near 104.64 and 104.48, both the 100-day and the 200-day SMA form a double layer of protection to support any declines. Should this area be broken, look for 104.00 to salvage the situation.