USD/CAD appreciates to near 1.3700 as Fed delays the expected timing of the rate cut

• USD/CAD broke its losing streak as higher-than-expected US PMI data supported the US Dollar.
• Fed’s Neel Kashkari argued that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%.
• Higher Crude Oil prices could limit the downside of the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

USD/CAD halts its six-day losing streak, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian session on Monday. On Friday, a higher-than-expected US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) boosted the US Dollar (USD), underpinning the USD/CAD pair.

The US Composite PMI for June surpassed expectations, rising to 54.6 from May’s reading of 54.5. This figure marked the highest level since April 2022. The Manufacturing PMI increased to a reading of 51.7 from a 51.3 figure, exceeding the forecast of 51.0. Similarly, the Services PMI rose to 55.1 from 54.8 in May, beating the consensus estimate of 53.7.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges higher due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials delaying the anticipated timing of the first interest rate cut this year. Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari argued on Thursday that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%, per Reuters.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are pricing in nearly 65.9% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, compared to 70.2% a week earlier.

On Loonie’s front, the upward correction in crude Oil prices could limit the downside of the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). Geopolitical tensions are supporting Oil prices, with Israeli troops advancing deeper into Gaza in the Middle East, while Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries persistently disrupt supply.