WTI extends gains to near $75.50 on hopes of Fed rate cuts following the ECB’s decision

• WTI price gains ground due to rising speculation of a Fed rate cut in September.
• ECB implemented a 25-basis point rate cut on Thursday.
• Oil prices appreciate as the lower US employment data spark hopes for two rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the third session, trading around $75.50 per barrel during the Asian session on Friday. The appreciation in crude Oil prices can be attributed to rising speculation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, following a 25-basis points rate cut implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

A Reuters poll conducted from May 31 to June 5 has indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists now predict an interest rate cut in September. Additionally, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests the probability of a Fed rate cut in September by at least 25 basis points has increased to nearly 70.0%, up from 51.0% a week earlier.

The lower employment data from the United States (US) fueled hopes for two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Lower interest rates in the United States (US), the largest Oil consumer country, could stimulate economic activity and boost Oil demand.

The ADP US Employment Change report indicated that 152,000 new workers were added to payrolls in May, the lowest in four months and significantly below the forecast of 175,000 and the downwardly revised figure of 188,000 for April. Initial Jobless Claims in the US increased by 8,000 to 229,000 for the week ending May 31, surpassing market expectations of 220,000. This marks the highest reading since the eight-month high of 232,000 recorded in early May. Traders await the release of US employment data releases on Friday, including the Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to extend most of their supply cuts into 2025. However, the group allowed for voluntary cuts from eight member countries to be gradually unwound starting in October. By December, more than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) are expected to re-enter the market, with a total of 1.8 million bpd returning by June 2025, according to Reuters.