Crude Oil extends recovery, WTI tests $75.50
06.06.2024, 22:36

Crude Oil extends recovery, WTI tests $75.50

  • WTI continues to recover ground as rate cut hopes bolster appetite.
  • Crude Oil markets face further challenges as oversupply risks remain.
  • OPEC+ expected to phase out production limits, adding to supply woes.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil recovered to $75.50 per barrel in thin market trading on Thursday, regaining recently-lost ground as energy traders try to shake off looming oversupply threats to focus on rising hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in the third quarter.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed another sharp buildup in US Crude Oil supplies this week, with barrel counts rising steeply from previous drawdowns that failed to stem the flow of US-produced barrels. Domestic demand, which was broadly expected to rise heading into the Memorial Day holiday driving season, failed to materialize. Consumer markets were broadly unable to sop up excess production at US refining facilities, and refined petroleum products have built up downstream from raw Crude Oil production.

After years of trying to bolster global Crude Oil prices using voluntary production limits, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its extended network of allied non-member states, OPEC+, are poised to phase out voluntary production caps that have kept north of 2.2 million barrels per day out of global supply lines. OPEC+ members that have shouldered the majority of the burden of limiting Crude Oil output rely heavily on selling Crude Oil in order to balance government budgets, and OPEC+ members have grown weary of sacrificing government receipts. OPEC+ assured markets that the phase out would be data dependent, but energy markets still balked at the prospect of additional oversupply in global barrel markets, sending Crude Oil prices into the lowest levels since February.

Broader market sentiment is planted firmly into hopes of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Rate markets are pricing in around 70% odds of at least a single quarter point cut from the Fed in September.

WTI technical outlook

WTI has extended into a two-day recovery, climbing from a near-term bottom of $72.45, but US Crude Oil remains steeply off of recent levels, trading on the low side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.78.

US Crude Oil bulls are aiming to drag WTI bids back into a recent consolidation zone around the $78.00 handle, though an exhaustion play could be on the cards with the 50-day EMA declining through the long-term MA.

WTI daily chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price 75.39
Today Daily Change 1.26
Today Daily Change % 1.70
Today daily open 74.13
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 77.65
Daily SMA50 80.71
Daily SMA100 79.08
Daily SMA200 79.46
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 74.15
Previous Daily Low 72.74
Previous Weekly High 80.41
Previous Weekly Low 76.52
Previous Monthly High 81.25
Previous Monthly Low 76.04
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 73.61
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 73.28
Daily Pivot Point S1 73.19
Daily Pivot Point S2 72.26
Daily Pivot Point S3 71.78
Daily Pivot Point R1 74.6
Daily Pivot Point R2 75.08
Daily Pivot Point R3 76.02

 

 

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