USD/CAD advances to 1.3650 as US Dollar recovers, BoC policy in focus

• USD/CAD rises to 1.3660 due to the US Dollar’s recovery and firm speculation BoC’s rate-cut on Wednesday.
• The BoC is expected to announce a rate-cut move for the first time after two year-long policy-tightening stance.
• The next move in the US Dollar will be guided by US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May

The USD/CAD pair jumps to 1.3660 in Monday’s European session. The Loonie asset strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends recovery due to uncertainty among market participants ahead of a United States (US) data-packed week.

Market sentiment has improved due to stronger-than-expected China’s Caixin PMI data for May. However, an asset-specific action is recorded in the global economy. While risk-perceived currencies are facing pressure, S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the London session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers to 104.70 but is still stuck inside Friday’s trading range.

10-year US Treasury yields tumble to 4.48% as market speculation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting improves. Positive change in Fed rate-cut prospects for September is driven by slower growth in the US Personal Spending data. In April, the consumer spending grew at a slower pace of 0.2% from the estimates of 0.3% and the former release of 0.7%.

This week, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May. In today’s session, investors will focus on the Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The PMI is estimated to have improved to 49.8 from the former reading of 49.2. However, a figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered as contraction.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar will dance to the tunes of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The BoC is expected to announce an interest rate-cut decision for the first time since March 22 as it maintained a restrictive policy framework due to Covid-led inflation. Investors will also focus on fresh cues about the BoC’s rate-cut path beyond June’ meeting.