USD/NOK remains steady as cautious remarks by Fed officials underpin the USD

• USD/NOK registers a slight uptick in Monday's session, settling at 10.693, with buyers making measured strides.
• With the Fed displaying resistance against premature easing, the USD finds solid support.
• Markets will look for further clues on the Fed’s stance on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

The USD/NOK pair is trading with mild gains, with the USD holding its ground against its peers. The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to send cautious messages about future policy decisions, causing traders to wait for the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes scheduled for Wednesday to gain further insights into the bank's stance.

The Fed's unified voice cautioning on easing, despite a softening in recent data, remains one of the influential factors of the pair which is limiting the downside of the pair. The views are aligned with the market bets of a 10% possibility of a rate cut in June which rises to 30% and 80% in July and September according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On the data front, the economic calendar remained empty on Monday, and the week’s highlights include the FOMC minutes from May’s meeting on Wednesday, S&P PMI readings from May on Thursday, and Durable Goods figures from April on Friday.

USD/NOK technical analysis

Examining the daily graph, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides within negative territory, increasing slightly to 43, indicating a sluggish recovery from a negative trend. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a flat tendency with persistent red bars, suggesting that negative momentum is still prevalent among investors.

USD/NOK daily chart

From the broader perspective, the USD/NOK is at a critical juncture, positioned below the 20 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggesting a negative outlook. Still, the losses will be limited if the pair holds above the 100-day average at 10.652.