- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- US Dollar gains some ground as sellers take breather, outlook tilted to downside
US Dollar gains some ground as sellers take breather, outlook tilted to downside
- DXY Index trading exhibits modest gains, rising to 104.45.
- Markets hope Fed announces early rate cut due to lower-than-expected CPI data.
- Weak Initial Job Claims, declining Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing support dovish rhetoric.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is mildly trading up at 104.45 on Thursday as sellers seem to be consolidating the sharp downward movement from Wednesday's session.
The US economy is hinting toward a slowdown, evidenced by the unexpected Initial Jobless Claims rise and a Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey contraction. Softer-than-expected inflation data reported on Wednesday supports this idea, which makes markets hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider rate cuts sooner rather than later, a thesis that weakens the USD.
Daily digest market movers: DXY under selling pressure as soft data warns markets
- Wednesday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates potential disinflation, which might speed up Fed's possible interest rate cuts.
- Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 3 rose to 222K, surpassing estimates. The figure for the previous week was also revised to a higher 232K.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (an index assessing the state of manufacturing in Philadelphia) for May depicted a contraction to 4.5, underperforming market predictions.
- CME FedWatch Tool predicts about a 75% chance of reduced fed funds rate post-September meeting, up from pre-CPI expectations of 65%.
DXY technical analysis: DXY finds some light, outlook remains bearish
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting flat in negative territory on Thursday, indicating the weakening of the buying momentum. This means that, although demand is declining, the selling momentum isn’t getting any stronger. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is exhibiting flat red bars, which suggest a similar situation - neither the bulls nor the bears seem to have a strong grip over the price momentum presently.
Looking at the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the DXY is below the 20-day SMA, which spelled a short-term bearish tone. However, the fact that the index remains above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs might be signaling a protective floor ensured by the bulls.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
