Natural Gas eases as traders engage in profit-taking after steep surge

• Natural Gas prices are undergoing some profit-taking on Tuesday.
• Israel has started its ground offensive in Rafah while ceasefire talks don’t bear fruits.
• The US Dollar Index ticks up on Tuesday after closing above 105.00. 

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) retreats from the peak at $2.40 seen on Monday after markets were pricing in more risk premium on the heated-up situation in the Middle East. Although ceasefire talks are taking place again in Cairo, headlines on Monday showed that a deal is still far from near and Israel has started its ground offensive in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah. Meanwhile, Australian Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports are expected to drop substantially with Chevron’s Gorgon plant remaining offline for at least five weeks.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is heading higher on Tuesday after Monday saw US Dollar bulls salvage it from a further slide by eking out a daily close above 105.00. That level is a line in the sand on the DXY chart in terms of more upside or downside. 

Natural Gas is trading at $2.30 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas news and market movers: Hiccup does not help

• European Gas markets are whipsawing by pricing in and out a risk premium on local Gas prices while a lot of LNG volume is actually on its way to Europe. Therefore, any hiccup in supply disruption will not be felt in the first coming weeks, Bloomberg reports.
• Chevron had to reschedule several LNG deliveries for Asian buyers due to the outage at the Gorgon facility in Australia, traders reported to Reuters.
• ANZ Bank said in a note on Tuesday that a tight Asian market and Europe looking to further rebuild inventories could boost competition and prices in the Gas market, MT Newswires reported. 
• PR Newswire reports that Karpowership and Brasilia’s Petrobras have signed a letter of intent to combine their respective expertise in the Natural Gas sectors. The agreement fits in the overall plan for Karpowership to further strengthen its access and relationship in the Brazilian Gas market.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: setting sail to $2.54

Natural Gas is on the breakout, that much is clear. Day by day the question is how this rally can withstand any profit-taking moments from traders that are in for the short ride and earn a few bucks. With the drift further away from substantial support levels, traders entering at elevated levels need to keep in mind that a correction can occur, and this will become more brutal as this rally sets sail towards $2.54 as the first nearby profit target. 

On the upside, the January 25 high at $2.33 has been broken and the high of Monday at $2.40 is taking its place. Once through there, prices could steamroll towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.54.

On the downside, a double belt is awaiting to provide support with the 100-day SMA at $2.09 and the pivotal level at $2.11 (low of April 14, 2023). Should this support above $2.00 not hold, then the ascending green trendline near $1.93 together with the 55-day SMA should avoid a further downturn.  

Natural Gas: Daily Chart