Mexican Peso strengthens on positive market sentiment

• The Mexican Peso rises as sentiment improves due to gains for tech giants and the easing of real-estate regulations in China.
• Microsoft and Alphabet stock prices soared at the end of last week, lifting the whole market higher. 
• Speculation of the Chinese authorities easing property market regulations helps soothe investor fears, further supporting sentiment. 

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades higher against its key counterparts on Monday morning on the back of a wave of positive market sentiment. Asian stock indices noted gains at the end of their session, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index up 1.6% and China’s Shanghai Composite closing up 0.79% at the time of writing. 

USD/MXN is trading down 0.30% at 17.10, EUR/MXN is down over 0.10% at 18.34 and GBP/MXN is down a similar amount at 21.43, at the time of publication during the European session. 

Mexican Peso rises on wave of positive risk sentiment

The Mexican Peso makes gains at the start of the week as risk sentiment turns positive on speculation the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee's Political Bureau will meet in late April to discuss loosening property policies, according to Reuters. 

Market sentiment is being further buoyed by the strong gains seen in US stocks on Friday as a result of expectation-beating first quarter results from Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).

On the data front, the Mexican labor market showed resilience after the release of the Unemployment Rate, which came in lower-than-expected at 2.3% in March from 2.5% previously, according to figures from INEGI. Analysts had been expecting a lesser decline to 2.4%. 

Balance of Trade data, released at the same time, showed a higher-than-expected surplus of $2.098 billion in March from $1.195B in the same month of the previous year, and February’s 0.585B deficit, according to data from INEGI. The result was above expectations of a 0.700B surplus. 

The data is more likely than not to lead the Banxico to delay further interest-rate cuts. The central bank reduced interest rates from 11.25% to 11.00% at its March meeting, however, it said future cuts would be data dependent. Maintaining higher interest rates for longer is likely to support the Mexican Peso going forward as higher interest rates attract more capital inflows.

Technical Analysis: USD/MXN extends sideways trend

USD/MXN extends its sideways trend over the short-term horizon as it continues to seesaw between tepid gains and losses between range lows in the 16.80s and highs in the 17.40s. 

USD/MXN 4-hour Chart 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has just crossed below its signal line, giving a sell signal and indicating the likelihood that USD/MXN will continue falling to the range floor. The signal is enhanced by the fact that MACD is more reliable in sideways market conditions. 

A decisive breakout of the range, either below the range floor at 16.86 or range ceiling at 17.40, would change the directional bias of the pair. 

A break below the floor could see further downside to a target at 16.50, followed by the April 9 low at 16.26.

On the other side, a breakout higher would activate an upside target first at 17.67, piercing a long-term trendline and then possibly reaching a further target at around 18.15. 

A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green or red daily candlestick that pierces above or below the range high or low, and that closes near its high or low for the period; or three green/red candlesticks in a row that pierce above/below the respective levels.