FOMC meeting preview: New birds in the nest unlikely to change policy path - Wells Fargo

The report provided by ActionForex reveals that analysts at Wells Fargo Securities note the FOMC's first meeting of the year means that there will also be new voting members as part of its regular rotation of regional presidents. 

"Rotating off as voting members will be two “hawks” – Eric Rosengren (Boston) and Esther George (Kansas City). The committee is also losing two “doves,” however, in Charles Evans (Chicago) and James Bullard (St. Louis).

On balance, the new crop of voters looks to be slightly more hawkish. Loretta Mester (Cleveland) and Patrick Harker (Philadelphia) tend to be on the “hawkish” end of the spectrum, although neither dissented in their last steads as voters, albeit then the Fed was raising rates (Mester in 2018 and Harker in 2017). Neel Kashkari, probably the most “dovish” member of the FOMC, will also be a voter this year, but the fourth new voter, Robert Kaplan (Dallas) tends to be fairly middle-of-the-road in his policy views.

It is worth noting that the regional Fed presidents who rotate on and off as voters account for only four of the ten votes that are currently cast at each meeting.3 In other words, they remain a minority and are unlikely to sway the final vote outcome. Moreover, all of the regional Fed presidents are always part of FOMC discussions, giving them the chance to influence the direction of policy even if they are not currently voters. We therefore do not see the makeup of voters in 2020 as a significant factor in our outlook for FOMC policy this year, and we continue to expect the FOMC to remain on hold not just at its January meeting, but for the foreseeable future."