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- ‘Big uncertainty’ over US oil output in 2020 will be critically important to oil prices - analyst
‘Big uncertainty’ over US oil output in 2020 will be critically important to oil prices - analyst
The question of how much crude U.S. producers may be able to add this year could be pivotal for oil prices in 2020, analysts told CNBC, while warning of the potential for "vicious corrections" in the coming months.
Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Macro-Advisory, suggested three "critical factors" were set to have the greatest influence over crude futures this year. The first two factors were identified as oil demand growth and the current deal between OPEC and its allied partners.
"The big uncertainty this year - and it is already beginning to be talked about - is: Can or will U.S. producers be able to continue to add as much extra volume as they have been for the last seven or eight years?" "This is a huge question," Weafer said.
The International Energy Agency projected last month that total U.S. oil production growth will slow to 1.1 million b/d in 2020, down from 1.6 million b/d in 2019.
In such a scenario, Weafer said that, assuming the OPEC+ deal remains in place, oil prices should trade in the $60 to $70 price range.
Nonetheless, he warned many were becoming concerned that U.S. production growth might have passed its peak, amid speculation the industry will not be able to increase production at the same rate in 2020 as it has done in previous years.
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