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- Fed work is not even close to done - Rabobank
Fed work is not even close to done - Rabobank
"The Fed thinks it has everything under control," Philip Marey, Rabobank's senior US strategist, wrote in a note to clients.
But the same forecasting model that led Rabobank to correctly pinpoint the end of the Fed's recent rate hiking cycle is now signaling that the central bank will need to "cut rates all the way back to zero before the end of 2020," Marey said.
"The three insurance cuts [this year] will not be enough to prevent the economy from sliding into a recession," he wrote. "While the Fed is still convinced that they have made a mid-cycle adjustment, we think that it is more likely that we are late in the cycle."
Rabobank predicts the Fed will keep rates steady at the current range of 1.5% to 1.75% until April. That's when the firm anticipates that the Fed will launch the first of six-straight "recession" cuts.
Markets are pricing in just a 15% chance that the Fed will cut rates more than once in 2020, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are signaling there in no chance of rates dropping to zero.
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