- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- U.S.: Trough in growth is still to come – ABN AMRO
U.S.: Trough in growth is still to come – ABN AMRO
Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that Fed rate cut expectations declined further last Friday, with pricing for a January cut falling from around 50% to just 30% following the better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls print.
- “Alongside the upside surprise in the headline print (a gain of 128k vs expectations of 85k, despite the GM strike-related distortions), there were net positive revisions to the past two months of +95k – pointing to a rather stronger labour market than would be expected considering how subdued business confidence is. However, as if to remind markets of the persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector, September factory orders (excluding lumpy aircraft items) showed a contraction of -0.1% mom, with August revised down to -0.2% from an earlier flat reading.
- The forward-looking indicators for employment also remain weak, with the ISM manufacturing employment index still in contraction territory at 47.7 in October, with services not much better at 50.4 as of September (sharply down from the average of 56.0 in H1 2019). Indeed, we expect payrolls growth to continue softening in the coming months.
- With private consumption growing at well-above trend rates in Q2 (+4.6%) and Q3 (2.9%), we, therefore, expect payback in the fourth quarter, with overall GDP growth potentially dipping below 1.0% annualiяed. Such a weak outturn would come as a reality check to markets that have grown accustomed to a resilient US economy, and could even raise fears of a recession once again.”
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
