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- Christine Lagarde likely to be the next ECB president - Nordea Markets
Christine Lagarde likely to be the next ECB president - Nordea Markets
Nordea Markets' analysts believe that the next ECB President will most likely be Christine Lagarde, the French IMF Managing Director.
- “It was expected that the nationality of a candidate played a more important role in the nomination this time than in the previous rounds because the ECB nomination took place at the same time as the other high-level nominations in the EU and Germany and France were expected to have a top-level post each.
- Ms. Lagarde was on the list of candidates, but not among the favorites. After the question on the gender-balance was brought to the table, Lagarde’s nomination should not be a big surprise after all.
- We do not know much about Lagarde’s views on monetary policy. She’s a lawyer and many analysts expect her to rely very much on the analysis that the Eurosystem staff will provide. The system of collective decision-making at the ECB Governing Council further strengthens the view that Lagarde will probably not change the general line of the ECB at the first meetings, at least if economic surprises remain small.
- Lagarde’s nomination does not change our view on the future steps of the ECB. This means that we expect the ECB to add stimulus in September when Draghi is still in place and to be ready to do more if needed soon after Lagarde has taken over.
- The fact that not much is known about Lagarde’s views on monetary policy implies that the markets will be extremely careful in analyzing her comments in the coming months.”
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