Ekonomske vesti sa finansijskih tržišta od 2 децембар 2020

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02.12.2020
08:20
AUD/USD now focused on 0.7330 – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group said that a breakdown of 0.7330 would indicate that the positive phase in AUD/USD could be over.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday that a break of 0.7413 would shift the focus to 0.7455. However, AUD retreated quickly from high of 0.7408. Upward momentum has been dented and a break of 0.7330 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started in mid-November has run its course. Barring a sudden surge above 0.7413 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 0.7330 would not be surprising.”

08:03
Asian session review: the dollar has stabilized against the euro

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:00AustraliaRBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks    
00:30AustraliaGross Domestic Product (YoY)Quarter III-6.3%-4.5%-3.8%
00:30AustraliaGross Domestic Product (QoQ)Quarter III-7%2.5%3.3%
05:00JapanConsumer ConfidenceNovember33.6 33.7
07:00GermanyRetail sales, real adjusted October-2.2%1.2%2.6%
07:00GermanyRetail sales, real unadjusted, y/yOctober7%5.9%8.2%
07:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) November0%-0.1%-0.2%
07:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)November-0.6%-0.5%-0.7%


During today's Asian trading, the US dollar traded steadily against the euro and rose against the yen.

The exchange rate of the US currency against the euro has been at a minimum since April 2018. The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (the euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell to its lowest level since April 2018 at the end of trading on Tuesday, given that the euro's weight in the index is about 60%. On Wednesday, the ICE index fell 0.21%.

Growing investor optimism about the economic outlook, driven by the success of a number of pharmaceutical companies in developing COVID-19 vaccines, is contributing to the outflow of investor funds from safe haven assets, which include the dollar, to riskier assets.

In addition, investors are confident that the Federal reserve system will continue to pour money into the economy both by buying assets and by providing cheap loans to banks, given that the situation in the US economy remains difficult amid the second wave of the pandemic, and there are no hopes for the adoption of a new fiscal stimulus package before January.

07:45
Swiss сonsumer prices fell by 0.2% in November

According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in November 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.0 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. 

The 0.2% decrease compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays. Hotel accommodation also recorded a price decrease, as did fruiting vegetables. In contrast, prices for housing rentals and foreign red wine increased.

In November 2020, the Swiss Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) stood at 100.09 points (base 2015 = 100). This corresponds to a rate of change of –0.4% compared with the previous month and of –0.8% compared with the same month the previous year. Due to the effects of the pandemic, the same missing price imputation techniques used for the CPI were introduced for the HICP.

07:37
Options levels on wednesday, December 2, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2203 (661)

$1.2157 (1191)

$1.2116 (1718)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2078

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1986 (293)

$1.1944 (260)

$1.1897 (893)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 4 is 106746 contracts (according to data from December, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6560);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3526 (2769)

$1.3494 (911)

$1.3469 (974)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3425

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3316 (865)

$1.3235 (798)

$1.3100 (1080)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 4 is 23159 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2769);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 4 is 42835 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (11992);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.85 versus 1.77 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 1

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:30
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (MoM) , November -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)
07:30
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (YoY), November -0.7% (forecast -0.5%)
07:15
German retail sales rose more than expected in October

According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in October 2020 was in real terms as well as in nominal terms 2.6% (both adjusted for calendar and seasonal influences) higher than in September 2020. Economists had expected a 1.2% increase in real terms.

In October 2020, the turnover in retail rose by 8.2% (real) and 9.4% (nominal) compared to the same month of the previous year. Economists had expected a 5.9% increase in real terms. In comparison to February 2020, the month before the outbreak of Covid 19 in Germany, the turnover in October 2020 was 5.9% (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted) higher.

Retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco were in real terms 7.3% and 10.3% in nominal terms higher in October 2020 than in October 2019. Turnover in retail sale in supermarkets, self-service department shops and hypermarkets was in real terms 7.9% and in nominal terms 10.9% higher than in the same month last year. 

In the non-food retail sector, sales in October 2020 rose in real terms by 9.0% and in nominal terms by 9.4% compared with the same month of the previous year. The largest increase in turnover compared with the previous year's month in real terms by 29.8% and 31.1% in nominal terms was achieved by the internet and mail order business. Trade in furniture, household appliances and building materials also increased, with a real plus of 14.2%.

07:00
Germany: Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y, October 8.2% (forecast 5.9%)
07:00
Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , October 2.6 (forecast 1.2%)
05:00
Japan: Consumer Confidence, November 33.7
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, December 1, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 47.18 -1.19
Silver 23.985 6.14
Gold 1815.126 2.16
Palladium 2409.95 1.49
00:30
Australia: Gross Domestic Product (YoY), Quarter III -3.8 (forecast -4.5%)
00:30
Australia: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ), Quarter III 3.3 (forecast 2.5%)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, December 1, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 353.92 26787.54 1.34
Hang Seng 226.19 26567.68 0.86
KOSPI 42.91 2634.25 1.66
ASX 200 70.7 6588.5 1.08
FTSE 100 118.54 6384.73 1.89
CAC 40 63.09 5581.64 1.14
Dow Jones 185.28 29823.92 0.63
S&P 500 40.82 3662.45 1.13
NASDAQ Composite 156.37 12355.11 1.28
00:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, December 2, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:00 (GMT) Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks    
00:30 (GMT) Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III -6.3% -4.5%
00:30 (GMT) Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III -7% 2.5%
05:00 (GMT) Japan Consumer Confidence November 33.6  
07:00 (GMT) Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October -2.2% 1.2%
07:00 (GMT) Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October 6.5% 5.9%
07:30 (GMT) Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0% -0.1%
07:30 (GMT) Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November -0.6% -0.5%
10:00 (GMT) Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM October 0.3% 0.2%
10:00 (GMT) Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) October -2.4% -2.4%
10:00 (GMT) Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 8.3% 8.4%
13:15 (GMT) U.S. ADP Employment Report November 365 500
13:30 (GMT) Canada Labor Productivity Quarter III 9.8%  
14:00 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
15:00 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks    
15:00 (GMT) U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
15:30 (GMT) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November -0.754 -2.272
18:00 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
19:00 (GMT) U.S. Fed's Beige Book    
21:30 (GMT) Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 52.7  
21:45 (GMT) New Zealand Building Permits, m/m October 3.6%  
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, December 1, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.73707 0.4
EURJPY 125.895 1.22
EURUSD 1.20683 1.19
GBPJPY 140.022 0.79
GBPUSD 1.34225 0.78
NZDUSD 0.70639 0.76
USDCAD 1.29391 -0.52
USDCHF 0.89991 -0.73
USDJPY 104.314 0.04

NOVOSTI SA DEVIZNOG TRŽIŠTA

CURRENCY MARKET DEFINITION
The concept of currency market has several definitions:

  • Currency market is the sphere of economic relations that are manifested in the purchase and sale of currency values (foreign currency, securities in foreign currency), as well as operations related to the investment of capital in foreign currency;
  • Currency market is a financial center where currency purchase and sale transactions based on supply and demand for them are concentrated;
  • Curency market is a whole of authorized banks, investment companies, brokerages, exchanges, and foreign banks that perform foreign exchange operations.
  • Currency market is a whole of communications systems that link banks in different countries that conduct international currency transactions.

Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.

Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.

TYPES OF MARKETS. RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKETS
There are international and domestic currency markets.

Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.

The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.

Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.

Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.

Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.

As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.

The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).

CURRENCY MARKET FUNCTIONS
Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.

The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:

  • creating conditions for the subjects of foreign exchange relations to make timely international current and capital payments and thereby promoting the development of foreign trade;
  • providing conditions and mechanisms for the implementation of monetary and economic policy of the state;
  • diversifying foreign exchange reserves;
  • forming the exchange rate under the influence of supply and demand;

NEWS IMPACT
Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.

In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.

News about these factors can be found in various sources:

  • Reports showing a country´s level of economic development.

The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:

  • GDP
  • unemployment;
  • return on equity;
  • consumer price index;
  • industrial price index;
  • propensity to consume;
  • salaries outside of the agricultural sector;
  • residential construction, etc.

Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.

The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.

  • Speeches of country leaders, leading economists and analysts.

A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:

  • analysis of the situation on the currency market;
  • changes in monetary or economic policy;
  • adoption of a budget policy;
  • forecasts of the economic situation, etc.

All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.

It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.

The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.

In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.

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