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Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September 0.0% 0.1%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September -0.4% -0.4%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September -5.8% -5.5%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September -0.9% -0.9%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September -0.3% 0.4%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom PSNB, bln September -35.9 -34
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September 0.9%  
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September 0.5% 1.2%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom HICP, m/m September -0.4% 0.5%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September 0.2% 0.5%
07:30 (GMT) Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks    
10:00 (GMT) United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance October -48  
12:10 (GMT) United Kingdom MPC Member Ramsden Speaks    
12:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales YoY August 2.7%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales, m/m August 0.6% 1.1%
12:30 (GMT) Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM September 0.5% 0.5%
12:30 (GMT) Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY September 2.1%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m August -0.4% 0.9%
12:30 (GMT) Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y September 0.8%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Consumer Price Index m / m September -0.1% -0.1%
12:30 (GMT) Canada Consumer price index, y/y September 0.1% 0.4%
12:50 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks    
14:00 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks    
14:30 (GMT) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories October -3.818 -0.24
18:00 (GMT) U.S. Fed's Beige Book    
21:45 (GMT) New Zealand Trade Balance, mln September -353  
22:30 (GMT) Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
DJIA +0.82% 28,427.22 +231.80 Nasdaq +0.86% 11,578.10 +99.22 S&P +0.95% 3,459.52 +32.60
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 5,889.22 +4.57 +0.08% DAX 12,736.95 -117.71 -0.92% CAC 40 4,929.28 +0.01 +0.00%
U.S.: September marks another solid month for housing starts - TD Bank Financial Group

According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group note that U.S. housing starts increased by 1.9% month-on-month to 1.42 million units (annualized) in September. 

"The headline print came slightly below market expectations, which called for a more optimistic 2.5% jump to 1.45 million units. Today’s report also came with revisions to the August and July readings (-33k on net)."

"The improvement was concentrated in single-family starts, which advanced by 8.5% to 1.11 million units following a 2.9% increase in the month prior. By contrast, the recent softness in multi-family construction extended to September as starts in this segment fell by 16.3% to 307k units."

"Building permits advanced by 5.2% in September to 1.55 million after a 0.5% decline in August (previously reported as -0.9%). Single-family permits were up 7.8%, while multi-family permits declined by 0.9%."

"Supported by low mortgage rates, the growth in housing demand has been particularly impressive over the last few months. In fact, sales of new single-family homes are outpacing single-family starts by a historical margin according to a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) study. This suggests that there is room for additional homebuilding growth in the coming months. What is more, elevated traffic numbers have pushed builder confidence to consecutive all-time highs in September and October."

"On the other side of the ledger, binding constraints on the supply front are a thorn in the otherwise positive outlook. Notably, skyrocketing softwood lumber prices, which have surged by a record 29% month-on-month in September, are effectively adding thousands of dollars to construction costs. A fall resurgence in new COVID-19 cases as well as a labor market recovery that is losing steam are other factors that could weigh on housing demand as we near the end of the year and enter 2021."

S&P 500 Index: Current 3100-3588 trading range to stay for a while - Morgan Stanley

FXStreet reports that since returning in mid-August to highs last seen before the pandemic, the S&P 500 benchmark index of the broader US market has bounced between 3100 and a high of 3588 set on September 2. According to Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley, there are three key concerns that may keep stocks trading in a range for a while yet, giving investors time to reposition for the next phase.

“The timing and size of CARES 2.0 fiscal stimulus is a major source of uncertainty, as the Senate focuses instead on a Supreme Court nomination.”

"The outcome of key Senate races could determine the size of the next stimulus bill if control of the chamber switches parties. Many Senate races remain close. Even if Democrats manage to gain the majority in the Senate, their margin will likely be slim. However, a ‘blue wave’ result – where the Democratic Party gains control of the White House and both chambers of Congress – could lead to an economic relief package approaching $3 trillion come next year.”

“Signs of another cresting wave of COVID-19 infections could also exacerbate worries. On October 15, US daily positive cases numbered more than 62,000, the worst report since July. In Europe, new cases have surged to twice their peak in April. We continue to believe that better treatment regimes, lower mortality rates and more clarity on when vaccines will become widely available will help to limit the economic impact.”

New Zealand: PM J.Ardern faces a tough new term - UOB

FXStreet reports that Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, assesses the recent win of PM Jacinda Ardern at the October 17 national elections.

“New Zealand’s governing Labour Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern won the country’s general election on Saturday (17 October), in an unprecedented landside over the opposition National Party, led by Judith Collins. It was the first time a New Zealand political party has secured a majority government under the mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) voting system introduced since 1996.”

“But with 100% of ballots counted for the preliminary results, the Labour Party has achieved the highest percentage of the popular vote (49.1%) for any political party since the National Party won 54.0% in 1951. This election was the worst defeat for the National Party, which won nearly 27% of the vote, down on last election’s 44% and the party worst defeat since 2002.”

“Ardern's re-election was buoyed by her "go hard and go early" approach to handling the COVID-19 pandemic, which has helped the country avoid the devastating outbreaks seen elsewhere.”

“Still, Ardern looks set to face another tough term ahead, as she attempts to address issues such as inequality, child poverty, climate change and the housing market; whilst steering the economy from the COVID-19 fallout. Regardless of the election result, the New Zealand economic outlook remains bleak."

“Uncertainties surrounding border closures look set to keep business investment and household spending subdued. Whilst a substantial fiscal response has been in place, the weakening global economic outlook is likely to weigh on goods exports, and unemployment is expected to rise following the expiry of wage subsidies paid by the government. The bill for government measures has already resulted in government debt rising from below 20% of GDP earlier in the year to 27.6% in June, and it is projected to rise to 53.6% over the coming four years.”

Aluminium guns for the 200-week moving average at 1904.66 - Commerzbank

FXStreet notes that aluminium (LME) has reached the 55-month moving average at 1864.33 as well as the July 2019 high at 1866.00 and made its current October high at 1872.50. The metal still has the 200-week moving average at 1904.66 in its sights, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, briefs.

“Once exceeded, the 200-week moving average at 1904.66 would be next in line (please the weekly chart on the following page). Still further up the February and March 2019 highs can be spotted at 1936.00/1951.00.”

“Minor support can be found between the early August and early September highs at 1824.00/1792.00 and also between the 55-day moving average and late September high at 1788.44/1785.50. More significant support sits between the September and current October lows at 1726.00/1725.00.”

U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.48%, Nasdaq +0.59%, S&P +0.57%
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.37%, NASDAQ futures +0.27%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday, following Monday's market decline, supported by reports that House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had narrowed some of their differences on a new stimulus package.

Global Stocks:



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Yandex N.V., NASDAQ





U.S. housing starts and building permits increase in September

The Commerce Department reported on Tuesday the housing starts rose by 1.9 percent m-o-m in September to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.415 million, while building permits surged by 5.2 percent m-o-m to an annual rate of 1.553 million.

Economists had forecast housing starts increasing to a pace of 1.457 million units last month and building permits rising to a pace of 1.520 million units.

Data for August was revised to show homebuilding dropping to a pace of 1.388 million units, instead of decreasing at a rate of 1.416 million units as previously reported, and permits declining to a pace of 1.476 million units, instead of falling at a rate of 1.470 million units as previously reported.

According to the report, permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, jumped 7.8 percent m-o-m in September, while approvals for the multi-family homes segment declined 0.9 percent m-o-m.

In the meantime, groundbreaking on single-family homes climbed 8.5 percent m-o-m in September, while housing starts for the multi-family plunged 14.7 percent m-o-m.

U.S.: Housing Starts, September 1.415 (forecast 1.457)
U.S.: Building Permits, September 1.553 (forecast 1.52)
EUR/CHF maintains a large topping structure with next support seen at 1.0678 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that EUR/CHF maintains a large top and economists at Credit Suisse expect further weakness to unfold in due course, with pivotal support seen next at the 200-day average at 1.0678. 

“EUR/CHF fell on Monday and backed away from the ‘neckline’ to the large topping structure, which reinforces our downside bias. With daily MACD momentum also still clearly pointing lower, we see support initially at 1.0702/00, then 1.0689/88, ahead of the 200-day average at 1.0678. Whilst we would expect this to hold at first, below can see support next at 1.0650, ahead of the low of July and psychological inflection point at 1.0607/00. Beyond here would see support next at the 78.6% retracement of the May/June surge at 1.0593, ahead of the “measured top objective” seen at 1.0580.”

“Resistance is seen initially at 1.0730/36, which we ideally look for to hold to maintain the top."

Company News: Travelers (TRV) quarterly results beat analysts’ expectations

Travelers (TRV) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $3.12 per share (versus $1.43 per share in Q3 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.07 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $7.771 bln (+2.7% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $7.317 bln.

TRV rose to $115.50 (+3.27%) in pre-market trading.

Company News: Procter & Gamble (PG) quarterly results beat analysts’ forecasts

Procter & Gamble (PG) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $1.63 per share (versus $1.37 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.42 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $19.318 bln (+8.5% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $18.379 bln.

The company also issued in-line guidance for FY 2021, raising core EPS growth from 3-7% y/y to 5-8% y/y, which translates to $5.38-5.53, versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.39.

PG rose to $144.25 (+1.65%) in pre-market trading.

S&P 500 Index to move back to the 200-DMA at 3125 as the correction is not over - Morgan Stanley

FXStreet notes that financial markets have been trading in a wide range since August. For example, US equity markets have not been able to make new highs in six weeks, the longest period since this new bull market began in March. Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the US election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over, according to Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley.

“From a technical perspective, I've been closely watching a key resistance area for the S&P 500 since early September. And that comes in around 3550. Last week, the index failed to break through that level for the second time in two months. This technical failure is not the end of the bull market, but it does suggest to me that the correction that began in September probably is incomplete. In short, that means equity markets could experience another 10% correction back toward more formidable support levels. More specifically, the 200-day moving average, which comes in around 3125.”

“At today's prices, the S&P 500 is trading at an equity risk premium of 380 basis points... However, with so much uncertainty surrounding the US elections, Brexit and the arriving second wave of COVID-19, we think the equity risk premium should be about 10% higher. In short, we like our 3100-3550 range on the S&P 500 as a good guide for risk taking, both from a technical and valuation perspective.”

Company News: IBM (IBM) posts quarterly financials in line with analysts' estimates

IBM (IBM) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $2.58 per share (versus $2.68 per share in Q3 FY 2019), in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.58 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $17.560 bln (-2.6% y/y), roughly in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $17.557 bln.

IBM fell to $121.94 (-2.85%) in pre-market trading.

European Commission states willing to intensify talks with UK

  • Says in order for a deal to happen, both sides need to meet
  • Confirms that EU's chief Brexit negotiator Barnier will speak with UK's chief Brexit negotiator Frost later today

European session review: GBP mixed as investors continue to track developments in EU-UK trade talks

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
08:00EurozoneCurrent account, unadjusted, bln August25.5 21.8
09:30United KingdomMPC Member Vlieghe Speaks    

GBP traded mixed against its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday as investors continued to track developments in trade talks between the EU and the UK. The pound rose against JPY, AUD and NZD, fell against EUR, CHF and CAD, and changed little against USD.

On Monday, the UK's Cabinet Minister Michael Gove reiterated that the EU must change its approach on post-Brexit trade talks if it wants to restart negotiations. The trade talks were halted last week after the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson concluded that there was no point in continuing them and the UK should get ready for an Australia-style no-deal break with the EU. However, he added that Britain would listen if there was "a fundamental change of approach" from Brussels.

Bloomberg reported earlier today, citing an EU source, that the EU and the UK chief negotiators, Michel Barnier and David Frost, will discuss next steps in negotiations later today, after having agreed to "intensify" them at Monday's meeting. 

Despite an impasse in the EU-UK talks, investors still hope that the sides eventually will agree on some sort of an agreement.

Brexit woes remain a negative for GBP - UOB

FXStreet reports that economist Lee Sue Ann and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group reviewed the current developments around Brexit and the prospects around the British pound.

“UK PM Boris Johnson has claimed there will be no more trade and security talks with the European Union (EU). “Unless there’s a fundamental change of approach, we’re going to go to the Australia solution, and we should do it with great confidence,” he reportedly said. The “Australia solution” refers to trading on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms — in other words, without a formal trade deal.”

“Whilst the chances of a “no-deal” happening have increased, a “no-deal” scenario is not yet certain, as talks will continue. EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and UK’s chief negotiator David Frost will, however, resume technical talks on Monday.”

“Boris Johnson’s posturing towards a “no-deal” is a clear negative on the GBP. Sentiment on the currency is already dented by a new wave of coronavirus infections across the UK. So, until an eleventh-hour deal, the risk is still to the downside of GBP/USD. There is also scope for further shorts in the GBP/USD as net speculative short-positioning is only one-tenth (US$792m now vs US$7.8b in Aug 2019) of what is reached last summer when pricing for a “no-deal” Brexit was the most intense. So, we reiterate our defensive view on GBP/USD in the immediate quarter and expect the currency pair at 1.25 at end-4Q20.”

USD supported as fiscal stimulus is not expected until after US elections - MUFG

FXStreet notes that the US dollar has lost some ground at the start of this week which has helped to lift EUR/USD back towards the 1.1800-level and cable briefly back above 1.3000 on Monday as it is still holding out hope for pre-election fiscal stimulus. However, economists at MUFG Bank do not expect the bill to be passed before the US elections on November 3 and see the USD supported until then.

“The partial reversal of last week’s US dollar gains has been driven in part by renewed optimism over the prospect of US fiscal stimulus. According to reports, House speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Seven Mnuchin have ‘continued to narrow their differences’ on a pre-election COVID-19 relief package. President Trump has reportedly stated as well that he is ready to match the $2.2 trillion spending level demanded by Democrats. Nancy Pelosi has emphasized though that time is running out to reach a deal, and hopes to have clarity on whether they will be able to pass a stimulus bill before the election by the end of today.”

“There have been few signs yet that the Senate Republicans will be willing to back a larger stimulus bill. In these circumstances, we remain sceptical that a fiscal stimulus bill will be passed before the election. But remain more hopeful that a significant fiscal stimulus bill will be passed after the election especially if there is Blue Wave. It could provide the next bullish catalyst for risk assets and high beta currencies. Until then market participants are likely to remain more cautious ahead of the election supporting the US dollar.”

EU and UK's chief negotiators Barnier and Frost will discuss next steps in Brexit talks later today - Bloomberg reports, citing EU sources
USD/CHF to target recent low at 0.8998 on a slump below 0.9048 - Commerzbank

FXStreet notes that USD/CHF sellers attack 0.9100 round-figures on Tuesday as the previous breached uptrend now offers resistance at 0.9184. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, is closely watching the 0.9048 mid-September low as a break below here would open the path for further losses.

“USD/CHF yesterday failed at the breached two-month uptrend line which now acts as resistance 0.9184.” 

“Intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and for now we will maintain a negative bias below 0.9190.” 

“Attention on the 0.9048 mid-September low. Only a slide below 0.9048 will target the 0.8998 recent low. The recent low at 0.8998 guards 0.8943 (TD support). Failure at 0.8943 is needed to introduce scope to the 0.8703/0.8698 2014 lows.”

Equities: Three reasons why investing now makes sense – UBS

FXStreet reports that economists at UBS expect markets to remain more volatile than normal, notably into the US election.

“Whatever the outcome of the US election, we think new stimulus will be rolled out after the vote and lift economic growth. The second most likely outcome is the status quo in our view. This scenario presents the risk of fiscal policy gridlock, which would further contribute to volatility. But even in this scenario, we would expect some stimulus measures to pass.”

“Successful vaccine trials will increase certainty about the economic outlook. Critical Phase 3 efficacy data for the most advanced vaccines in development is likely this month or next..”

“Central bank policy is making the long-term case for equities over cash even clearer. The Fed projects that rates will remain on hold until at least the end of 2023. At the same time, the shift to average inflation targeting suggests policymakers may be willing to accept a period of moderately higher inflation. Real returns on cash are likely to remain negative, and cash lump sums can deplete quickly when we consider the possibility that personal spending may rise more rapidly than interest rates. For investors looking to draw on their savings to fund their spending, this combination of factors makes it more important to be invested in growth assets.”

Bank of England policymaker Vlieghe: It appears downside risks are starting to materialise

  • Not yet at a point where we can reach a conclusion on negative rates

  • There is a risk that negative rates end up being counterproductive

  • Outlook for monetary policy is skewed towards adding further stimulus

  • QE is probably less potent now than in March

  • Risks are skewed towards even larger job losses

  • Difficult to see a scenario where all furlough workers are reintegrated seamlessly

  • The speed of the recovery is likely to be slower while the virus remains a concern

AUD/USD to slip towards the 0.7006 September low – Commerzbank

FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, maintains a bearish bias on the aussie. 

“AUD/USD continues to weigh on the downside – a negative bias remains entrenched below the short-term downtrend at 0.7198 which continues to cap.” 

“The downtrend maintains a negative bias and the near-term risk remains for a slide to 0.7006, the September low and 0.6964, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. There is scope for this to extend towards the 200-day ma, the February high and mid-June low at 0.6791/74, which is expected to hold the downside.”

BOJ сonsiders сhanging inflation forecasts

Bloomberg reports that according to people familiar with the matter the Bank of Japan is likely to consider changing its inflation forecasts to reflect the short-term impact on prices of a government travel campaign at a policy meeting next week, .

The central bank will probably discuss cutting its price projection for this fiscal year ending in March to account for the downward pressure on prices of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Go To Travel campaign, the people said. The campaign offers subsidized domestic travel. A downgrade of the projection wouldn’t trigger any additional action by the BOJ, the people added.

CNY to take a breather from its appreciation – HSBC

FXStreet reports that economists at HSBC think the Chinese yuan can still outperform many other currencies in its basket, supported by bond inflows.

“Markets may be starting to have concerns about a slowdown in China’s recovery from here. That said, we believe the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will keep the overall monetary policy stance accommodative.”

“For the CNY, the current situation looks quite similar to 4Q17. In September 2017, as the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) RMB Index rose to around 95 and China’s growth data showed signs of peaking momentum, the PBoC lowered the foreign exchange (forex) risk reserve ratio for forward forex trading from 20% to 0%. The first removal of the forex reserve requirement in September 2017 did not lead to a complete reversal for the downward trend in USD/CNY, but there was a pause in 4Q17 before the CNY resumed appreciating in 1Q18. Similarly, this time around, we think there could also be a pause in the CNY’s appreciation for similar reasons, as well as due to potential uncertainty around the US elections.”

Eurozone current account surplus increased in August

According to the report from ECB, the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €20 billion in August 2020, increasing by €3 billion from the previous month. Surpluses were recorded for goods (€32 billion) and services (€2 billion). Deficits were recorded for secondary income (€11 billion) and primary income (€4 billion).

In the 12 months to August 2020, the current account recorded a surplus of €224 billion (1.9% of euro area GDP), compared with a surplus of €265 billion (2.2% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to August 2019. This decline was driven by reductions in the surpluses for services (down from €68 billion to €25 billion) and for primary income (down from €67 billion to €24 billion). These developments were partly offset by a larger surplus for goods (up from €294 billion to €323 billion) and a smaller deficit for secondary income (down from €164 billion to €148 billion).

In financial account, euro area residents’ net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities totalled €549 billion and non-residents’ net acquisitions of euro area portfolio investment securities totalled €446 billion in 12 months to August 2020

Eurozone: Current account, unadjusted, bln , August 21.8
S&P maintains Australia's sovereign ratings

RTTNews reports that S&P Global Ratings retained the sovereign ratings of Australia at 'AAA' with a negative outlook.

The agency said the Covid-19 pandemic dealt Australia a severe economic and fiscal shock, which has substantially deteriorated the government's fiscal headroom at the 'AAA' rating level.

The general government deficit is forecast to peak at 14 percent of GDP in fiscal 2021 before narrowing, and net general government debt to reach more than 40 percent of GDP by fiscal 2023.

However, with strong institutions, a credible monetary policy, and floating exchange-rate regime, Australia's typically strong fiscal performance remains credit strength for the rating, the agency said.

Asian session review: the US dollar traded stable against the euro

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:30AustraliaRBA Meeting's Minutes    
06:00GermanyProducer Price Index (YoY)September-1.2%-1.4%-1%
06:00GermanyProducer Price Index (MoM)September0%-0.1%0.4%

In today's Asian trading, the US dollar traded without significant fluctuations against the euro and the Japanese yen. Investors continue to follow the news regarding the approval of new economic incentives in the United States.

House speaker Nancy Pelosi on Saturday night called on the White house to reach an agreement on the remaining outstanding issues within 48 hours. Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were scheduled to hold regular discussions on Monday.

Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported, citing sources, that a deal between Pelosi and the administration of US President Donald Trump does not "sound like an imminent one."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has kept its benchmark loan interest rate (LPR) unchanged for the sixth consecutive month as the economy continues to recover from the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The annual LPR is left at 3.85% per annum. The last time this rate was lowered in April this year.

The Australian dollar is declining. The Reserve Bank of Australia discussed the possibility of additional monetary easing to support the labor market and the economy as a whole, according to the minutes of the October meeting of the RBA.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.03%.

USD/CNH now looks to 6.6450 – UOB

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/CNH could grind lower and tests the 6.6450 level in the next weeks.

“While we expected USD to weaken yesterday, we held the view that ‘any weakness is likely limited to a test of the month-to-date low of 6.6788’. The subsequent weakness exceeded our expectation as USD plummeted to a low of 6.6700. The rapid decline is oversold, but we see room for another down-leg towards 6.6580 before the current weakness should stabilize. Resistance is at 6.6850 followed by 6.6930.”

US Dollar Index to trade on the higher side of the 93.5-95 range – Westpac

FXStreet reports that economists at Westpac expect the US Dollar Index to trade at the upper boundary of the 93.50-95 range in the short-term. 

“DXY should continue to trade on the higher side of recent ranges while new COVID-19 cases in Europe surge, activity restrictions tighten, and Brexit and US fiscal stimulus prospects remain uncertain. 

“Blue wave election expectations and associated hopes for a larger US fiscal deal early 2021 likely prove more decisive for the USD multi-week, sustaining the medium-term bear trend.”

JPY: Stuck in the slow lane - NAB

eFXdata reports that NAB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook.

"Japans’ economic recovery remains stuck in the slow lane. Deflationary pressures add to our expectations for a lower USD/JPY. A post mortem on the Q3 Tankan survey has left us comfortable with our expectations of a slow economic recovery in Japan and lower USD/JPY over the coming year,"  

"USD/JPY now trades around the ¥105 mark suggesting exporter profits look set to remain under pressure. On its own, the collapse in profits doesn't bode well for USD/JPY. Our medium-term view on USD/JPY sees the pair slowly but surely heading towards a lower trading range of ¥100 to ¥105 in 2021,"NAB adds. 

German producer price index fell less than expected in September

According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in September 2020, the index of producer prices for industrial products decreased by 1.0% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. Economists had expected a 1.4% decrease. In August the annual rate of change all over had been –1.2%/ Compared with the preceding month August the overall index increased by 0.4% in September 2020 (unchanged in August). Economists had expected a 0.1% decrease.

Energy prices as a whole decreased by 3.3%. On an annual basis, prices of petroleum products were down 17.9%, prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 8.2%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 0.2% down in September 2019.

Prices of intermediate goods decreased by 1.3% compared to September 2019. Prices of non-durable consumer goods decreased by 0.1% compared to September 2019. Prices of capital goods increased by 0.9% compared to September 2019, durable consumer goods by 1.4%.

China left benchmark lending rates unchanged

RTTNews reports that China's central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month.

The one-year loan prime rate was retained at 3.85 percent and the five-year loan prime rate was maintained at 4.65 percent.

The one-year and five-year loan prime rates were last reduced in April. The one-year loan prime rate was lowered by 20 basis points and five-year rate by 10 basis points in April.

The interest rates were expected to be retained today as the rate on its medium-term lending facility or MLF, which serves as a guide for the LPR, was maintained this month.

With the PBoC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed amid a broadening economic recovery, we think the next move in the LPR will be an increase early next year, economists at Capital Economics said.

Germany: Producer Price Index (YoY), September -1.0% (forecast -1.4%)
Germany: Producer Price Index (MoM), September 0.4% (forecast -0.1%)
Options levels on tuesday, October 20, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD


Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1873 (4048)

$1.1848 (484)

$1.1828 (505)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1775

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1709 (977)

$1.1684 (1546)

$1.1654 (2049)


- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 53727 contracts (according to data from October, 19) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4048);


Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3060 (265)

$1.3024 (1681)

$1.2999 (213)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2946

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2862 (244)

$1.2816 (567)

$1.2788 (771)


- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 6 is 32336 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3950 (3694);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 24101 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2050 (2391);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.75 versus 0.74 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 19


* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Commodities. Daily history for Monday, October 19, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 42.32 -0.87
Silver 24.34 1
Gold 1903.302 0.24
Palladium 2340.36 0.66
Stocks. Daily history for Monday, October 19, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 260.5 23671.13 1.11
Hang Seng 155.47 24542.26 0.64
KOSPI 5.21 2346.74 0.22
ASX 200 52.6 6229.4 0.85
FTSE 100 -34.93 5884.65 -0.59
DAX -54.33 12854.66 -0.42
CAC 40 -6.59 4929.27 -0.13
Dow Jones -410.89 28195.42 -1.44
S&P 500 -56.89 3426.92 -1.63
NASDAQ Composite -192.68 11478.88 -1.65
Schedule for today, Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 (GMT) Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes    
06:00 (GMT) Switzerland Trade Balance September 3.4  
06:00 (GMT) Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) September -1.2% -1.4%
06:00 (GMT) Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) September 0% -0.1%
08:00 (GMT) Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln August 25.5  
09:30 (GMT) United Kingdom MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks    
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Housing Starts September 1.416 1.45
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Building Permits September 1.47 1.505
17:00 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, October 19, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.70627 -0.18
EURJPY 124.045 0.47
EURUSD 1.17665 0.43
GBPJPY 136.412 0.29
GBPUSD 1.29394 0.26
NZDUSD 0.66021 -0.01
USDCAD 1.31863 -0.04
USDCHF 0.90992 -0.53
USDJPY 105.422 0.03
New Zealand: NZIER Business Confidence, Quarter III -40%


Conceptul de piață valutară are mai multe definiții:

  • piața valutară este domeniul de aplicare al relațiilor economice care se manifestă în cumpărarea și vânzarea valutei (monede străine, hârtii de valoare în valută străină), precum și operațiuni relaționate cu investiții de capital în valută străină;
  • piața valutară este un centru financiar în care se concentrează operațiunile de cumpărare și vânzare a monedelor pe baza cererii și ofertei lor;
  • piața valutară este totalitatea băncilor autorizate, companiilor de investiții, birourilor de brokeraj, burselor, băncilor străine, care realizează tranzacții valutare;
  • piața valutară este totalitatea sistemelor de comunicații care leagă între ele băncile din diferite țări, care efectuează operațiuni valutare internaționale.

Spus mai simplu, piața valutară este piața în care se efectuează tranzacțiile valutare, adică se face schimbul monedei unei țări contra monedei altei țări la o anumită rată valutară. Rata de schimb este prețul relativ al monedelor din două țări sau moneda unei țări, exprimată în unități monetare ale altei țări.

Piața valutară face parte din piața financiară globală la nivel mondial, în care au loc o serie de operațiuni legate de mișcarea globală a capitalului.

Piața valutară poate fi internațională sau internă.

Piața valutară internă este piața care funcționează în interiorul unei țări.

Piața valutară internațională este o piață globală care include piețele valutare din toate țările lumii. Nu are o anumită locație platformă în care se realizează negocierile. Toate operațiunile de pe acesta sunt efectuate prin intermediul sistemului de canale prin cablu și prin satelit, care asigură comunicarea piețelor valutare regionale mondiale. Printre piețele regionale de astăzi se numără piața asiatică (cu centre în Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapur, Melbourne), europeană (Londra, Frankfurt am Main, Zurich), americană (New York, Chicago, Los Angeles).

Tranzacțiile valutare pe piața valutară internațională se efectuează pe baza cursurilor de schimb de piață stabilite pe baza cererii și ofertei de pe piață și sub influența diferitelor date macroeconomice. Piața valutară internațională este piața Forex.

De asemenea, piețele valutare pot fi împărțite în bursiere și OTC. Piața valutară bursieră este o piață organizată în care tranzacțiile sunt efectuate prin bursă - o întreprindere specială care stabilește regulile comerțului și oferă toate condițiile pentru organizarea tranzacționării în conformitate cu aceste reguli.

Piața valutară extrabursieră — este piața în care nu se specifică anumite reguli de tranzacționare și operațiunile de vânzare-cumpărare au loc fără a se lega de un anumit loc de tranzacționare, ca și în cazul cu bursa.

În general, piața valutară extrabursieră este organizată de companii speciale care oferă servicii de cumpărare și vânzare a monedelor, care pot fi sau nu membri ai bursei valutare. Acum operațiunile de tranzacționare pe o astfel de piață sunt efectuate în principal prin Internet.

În ceea ce privește volumul comerțului, piața valutară extrabursieră (OTC) depășește cu mult cea bursieră. Piața valutară internațională OTC Forex se socoate cea mai lichidă din lume. Funcționează non-stop și în toate centrele financiare ale lumii (de la New York la Tokyo).

Piața valutară — este o platformă esențială pentru asigurarea unei desfășurări normale a tuturor proceselor economice mondiale.

Principalele caracteristici macroeconomice ale pieței valutare sunt:

  • Crearea pentru subiecții relațiilor valutare a condițiilor pentru efectuarea la timp a plăților internaționale privind calculele curente și capitale și datorită acestui fapt facilitarea dezvoltării comerțului exterior;
  • asigurarea condițiilor și mecanismelor de implementare a politicii monetare și economice a statului;
  • diversificarea rezervelor valutare;
  • formarea ratei de schimb sub influența cererii și ofertei;

Principalul instrument de tranzacționare pe piața valutară sunt tot felul de valute. Ratele de schimb se formează sub influența cererii și ofertei de pe piață.

Dar, în afară de aceasta, ratele de schimb sunt influențate de mulți factori fundamentali, relaționați cu situația economică mondială, evenimentele din economiile naționale, deciziile politice.

Știrile cu privire la acești factori le puteți afla din diverse surse:

  • Rapoarte care arată nivelul de dezvoltare economică a statului.

Cu cât economia se dezvoltă mai stabil, cu atât moneda ei este mai stabilă. În consecință, potrivit statisticilor care apar în sursele oficiale ale țărilor cu o anumită regularitate, se poate prevedea modul în care se va comporta moneda în viitorul apropiat.
Aceste date includ:

  • PIB
  • șomajul;
  • randamentul capitalului;
  • indicele prețurilor de consum;
  • indicele prețurilor industriale;
  • tendința de a consuma;
  • salariile în afara agriculturii;
  • construirea locuințelor etc.

Un alt indicator la fel de important este nivelul ratelor dobânzii stabilit de către autoritățile naționale de reglementare a politicii de credit. În Uniunea Europeană aceasta este BCE (European Central Bank) - Banca Centrală Europeană, în SUA - Sistemul Federal de Rezerve (FRS), în Japonia - Banca Centrală a Japoniei (Bank of Japan), în Marea Britanie - Banca Centrală a Angliei (Bank of England), în Elveția - Banca Națională a Elveției (Swiss National Bank) etc.

Nivelul ratelor dobânzilor este determinat la ședințele băncii centrale naționale. Decizia privind rata este apoi publicată în sursele oficiale. Dacă banca centrală a țării reduce rata dobânzii, atunci masa monetară din țară crește și se produce deprecierea monedei naționale în raport cu alte monede mondiale. Dacă rata dobânzii crește, se produce consolidarea monedei naționale.

  • Discursuri ale liderilor țărilor, economiștilor și analiștilor de frunte.

Un discurs și chiar o declarație separată a șefului țării pot schimba brusc tendința. Subiectele discursurilor, după care se poate modifica rata de schimb valutar:

  • analiza situației de pe piața valutară;
  • modificări în politica monetară sau economică;
  • adoptarea politicii bugetare;
  • previziuni privind situația economică etc.

Toate aceste știri sunt publicate în diferite surse. Dar dacă știrile internaționale majore pot fi găsite relativ ușor în limba rusă, știrile cu privire la politica economică internă și economia statelor străine sunt mult mai puțin frecvente în presa rusă. În general, astfel de știri sunt publicate în mass-media națională și în limba țării, unde iese știrea.

Unei persoane îi vine foarte dificil să urmărească toate noutățile simultan și e foarte probabil să pierdă vreun eveniment important, care poate schimba întreaga situație pe piață. Ghidați de principiul nostru de bază - de a crea cele mai bune condiții de tranzacționare pentru clienții noștri - încercăm să selecționăm cele mai importante știri din întreaga lume și să le publicăm pe site-ul nostru.

Departamentul de analiză TeleTRADE monitorizează zilnic știrile de pe majoritatea surselor naționale și internaționale de informare și evidențiază cele care ar putea afecta ratele de schimb valutar. Aceste știri principale se încadrează în fluxul nostru de știri.

În plus, toți clienții noștri au acces gratuit la fluxul de știri Dow Jones. Acesta este un proiect comun al celei mai mari agenții de știri din lume Dow Jones Newswires și al principalei agenții ruse de știri Prime-TASS. Fluxul de știri este creat special pentru comercianții valutari și cei interesați să obțină informații despre piețele valutare mondiale.

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Politica AML

Managementul riscurilor

Tranzacționarea la bursă cu instrumente financiare în marjă oferă oportunități mari și permite investitorilor care sunt dispuși să își asume riscuri să obțină profituri pe măsură, purtând în același timp un risc potențial ridicat de pierderi. Prin urmare, ar trebui să abordați în mod responsabil problema alegerii strategiei adecvate de investiții, luând în considerare resursele disponibile, înainte de a începe tranzacționarea.

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