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11.08.2020

10:23

Asian session review: the dollar stabilized against the euro, rose against the yen

Time	Country	Event	Period	Previous value	Forecast	Actual
01:30	Australia	National Australia Bank's Business Confidence	July			-14
05:00	Japan	Eco Watchers Survey: Current	July	38.8	46.6	41.1
05:00	Japan	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook	July	44	48.2	36
06:00	United Kingdom	Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y	June	0.7%	-0.1%	-0.2%
06:00	United Kingdom	Average Earnings, 3m/y	June	-0.3%	-1.1%	-1.2%
06:00	United Kingdom	ILO Unemployment Rate	June	3.9%	4.2%	3.9%
06:00	United Kingdom	Claimant count	July	-28.1	10	94.4

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar traded steadily against the euro and rose against the yen. Investors continue to monitor the process of adopting a new package of measures to support the US economy. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday said he hopes to reach an agreement between the White house and Congress on new measures to support the country's economy this week.

The day before, the US dollar was supported by the decision of US President Donald Trump to sign four executive orders at once to extend measures to support the economy, bypassing Congress. One of the decrees, in particular, provides for partial restoration of additional payments to unemployment benefits.

The pound is slightly cheaper against the dollar and euro. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the UK in July fell by 28.1 thousand, as well as a month earlier, according to data from the National statistics office. Experts predicted an increase in the number of applications in June by 10 thousand. Unemployment in the UK in July was 3.9%, as in June. The consensus forecast of experts provided for an increase in unemployment to 4.2%.

This week, investors are also waiting for the publication of preliminary data on the change in UK GDP in the second quarter and data on the country's industrial production in June.

The Australian dollar rose against the dollar. The National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index for the Australian economy fell to -14 points in July 2020 from 0 a month earlier. The index assessing business conditions rose to zero points from -8 points in June. The terms of trade subindex rose to 1 point from -6 points.

10:00

El-Erian says the biggest threat to stock market rally is wave of corporate bankruptcies

CNBC reports that Mohamed El-Erian told that he considers a wave of corporate bankruptcies as the biggest risk to the stock market’s rally from coronavirus-era lows.

“I think what derails this market isn’t more China-U.S. tension, isn’t more political differences. It would be if we get then large-scale bankruptcies,” the chief economic advisor at Allianz said on “Squawk Box.” “That is what derails this market. Otherwise, you have a very strong technical supporting this marketplace.”

El-Erian’s comments come as Democrats and Trump administration negotiators have been unable to strike a deal on a broad coronavirus relief package, prompting President Donald Trump to issue a series of executive actions this weekend on issues that include federal unemployment supplements and student loan payments.

Tensions between the U.S. and China also have been rising, particularly regarding Beijing’s sweeping national security law in Hong Kong, and Trump’s recent executive orders involving the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and Tencent’s popular messaging app WeChat.

El-Erian, formerly co-CEO of investment powerhouse Pimco, contended that the market’s rally in recent weeks has really been about technical indicators, allowing for equities to continue moving higher even in spite of the coronavirus pandemic and other headwinds.

“It’s all been about technicals and that allows the market to over and over again to shrug off fundamentals,” he said. “Do I think there’s a limit to technicals supporting markets on their own? Yes. It just can go on for quite a while.”

El-Erian, who correctly predicted the coronavirus sell-off would continue until a bear market was reached but has been cautious about the recovery, said he worries about the “structurally embedded” economic damage that significant bankruptcies may usher in.

“Bankruptcies go from short-term liquidity problems to long-term solvency problems. If you get that, then unemployment becomes more problematic, and you get capital impairment,” he said. “Believe me, if there’s one thing Federal Reserve money cannot help markets through, it’s capital impairment events.

He added that a plateauing in the U.S. economic recovery from worst of the coronavirus-related carnage would still leave bankruptcies on the table. “We need growth to pick up again,” he said. “We need to get back to this notion of ‘V’ [shaped recovery] as opposed to a square root, where we come up and then level off.”

09:40

NZD/USD could re-visit 0.6520 in the near-term – UOB

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD could attempt a move to the 0.6520 area in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “After dropping sharply last Friday (07 Aug), NZD traded in a relatively quiet manner between 0.6578 and 0.6611 yesterday (10 Aug). While downward momentum is lackluster, there is room for NZD to edge lower towards 0.6560. For today, the next support at 0.6540 is not expected to come into the picture. Resistance is at 0.6610 but the stronger level is at 0.6625.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest update for NZD from last Friday (07 Aug, spot at 0.6685), we noted that ‘while upward momentum has improved a tad but the prospect for a sustained break of 0.6710 Is not high’. We added, ‘only a daily closing above 0.6755 would indicate that NZD has moved into a fresh positive phase’. While our doubt about the start of a fresh positive was not wrong, we did not quite anticipate the subsequent sharp sell-off that sent NZD plunging by -1.29% on Friday, its biggest 1-day decline in 2 months. For now, it is too early to expect a major reversal but the late July peak of 0.6716 is likely a short-term top and this level may not come back into the picture for the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade with a downward bias towards 0.6520. On the upside, a break of 0.6660 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

09:21

UK unemployment rate has unexpectedly stabilised

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, early indicators for July 2020 suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down around 730,000 compared with March 2020. Flows analysis suggests that the falls in May, June and July are mainly because of fewer people moving into payrolled employment.

Survey data show employment is weakening and unemployment is largely unchanged because of increases in economic inactivity, with people out of work but not currently looking for work.

The decrease in employment on the quarter was the largest quarterly decrease since May to July 2009 with both men and women seeing decreases on the quarter. The quarterly decrease in employment was also driven by workers aged 65 years and over, the self-employed and part-time workers. Meanwhile full-time employees largely offset the decrease.

A large number of people are estimated to be temporarily away from work, including furloughed workers; approximately 7.5 million in June 2020 with over 3 million of these being away for three months or more.

Vacancies are showing increases in the latest period, driven by the smaller businesses, some of which are reporting taking on additional staff to meet COVID-19 guidelines.

The Claimant Count reached 2.7 million in July 2020, an increase of 116.8% since March 2020.

Pay fell for all measures in the three months to June 2020. However, for the sectors of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants and construction where the highest percentage of employees returned to work from furlough, there is a slight improvement in pay growth for June 2020.

April to June figures show weakening employment rates, with numbers of self-employed and part-time workers seeing reductions; despite these falls, unemployment was not rising, because of increases in people out of work but not currently looking for work; the reduction in total hours worked is a record both on the year and on the quarter, with the whole period covering a time since the introduction of coronavirus measures.

The Claimant Count increased in July 2020, reaching 2.7 million; this includes both those working with low income or hours and those who are not working.

Vacancies in the UK in May to July 2020 were at an estimated 370,000; this is 10% higher than the record low in April to June 2020.

The three months to June 2020 saw strong falls in pay; total nominal pay fell by 1.2% on the year and regular nominal pay fell by 0.2% (the first negative pay growth in regular nominal earnings since records began in 2001).