The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining 0.45%
to 106.22 points, while the EURUSD is down 0.51% to 1.05270. This follows last
week’s 1.6% decline in the Dollar, which saw the EURUSD close at 1.05810.
Despite recent volatility, the pair has managed to hold above the critical
resistance at 1.05300-1.05500, keeping the bullish scenario toward
1.09500-1.10500 intact. A price gap at 1.05800 remains unclosed from Monday,
and its resolution—particularly after Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—could signal a
decisive move for the pair.
Geopolitical factors are adding pressure on
the Euro, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on
BRICS countries if they pursue a single currency. This has raised concerns
about a potential global trade war. However, markets appear to view the threat
as more of a negotiation tactic, with the EURUSD dipping 0.82% to 1.04980 on
the news—a less severe reaction compared to the 1.8% drop after the U.S.
elections. Political issues in Europe are also influencing sentiment, with
France’s Prime Minister Michel Barnier using special powers to pass a budget
without parliamentary approval, triggering threats of a no-confidence motion.
Given France’s significance as the EU’s second-largest economy, any instability
could have broader implications, though Barnier’s experience as a seasoned
negotiator suggests a likely resolution.
Recent macroeconomic data has shown a
divergence between the Eurozone and U.S. economies, with manufacturing PMIs
indicating a contraction in the Eurozone and the U.K., while the U.S. showed
signs of improvement. Service PMIs, due on Wednesday, and ADP Nonfarm Payrolls
data are expected to confirm this trend. The week is further highlighted by
speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, and
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, all of which could heighten market volatility.
Meanwhile, investor positioning remains unclear, with no recent updates from
the WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), although earlier data
indicated a modest $3.5 million short bet against the Dollar at
1.09000-1.09380.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD’s
ability to hold above 1.05300-1.05500 is crucial for maintaining its bullish
outlook. Closing the price gap at 1.05800 under favorable conditions would
bolster confidence in an upward move, with targets at 1.09500-1.10500 becoming
increasingly likely. While uncertainties persist, the pair’s resilience and
weakening Dollar momentum suggest the potential for further recovery.
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