Brent crude prices have risen by 0.4% this
week, reaching $78.00 per barrel, though they have slightly retreated from the
$79.48 per barrel mark recorded on August 7. The recent drop below the crucial
support level of $79.00-81.00 per barrel last Friday, spurred by a weak U.S.
labor market report for July, has heightened the risk of further declines, with
prices potentially dropping to $69.00-71.00 per barrel. Although prices are
attempting to retest the former support at $79.00, they are currently
struggling, retreating to $78.00.
Despite these challenges, large investors are
capitalizing on price dips, betting on a recovery in crude prices. The United
States Oil Fund (USO) reported net inflows of $145.8 million this week, a
significant increase from $16.4 million last week, marking the largest inflow
since mid-April. Most of these inflows occurred on Monday, helping prices
recover by 4.0-5.0%.
However, the rising risk of a U.S. recession
is prompting some to close long positions, as the demand for oil appears to be
declining. On the other hand, elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
are providing some support for prices. Should these tensions escalate into a
full-scale conflict, Brent prices could potentially surge above $81.00 per
barrel.
Supporting this bullish sentiment, the U.S.
Energy Information Administration reported a decline in oil inventories by 3.43
million barrels, compared to the expected 1.60 million, marking the sixth
consecutive week of declining inventories. Additionally, Libya’s National Oil
Corporation declared force majeure on all crude loadings from the Sharara oil
field due to a strike by residents, further contributing to a 2.8% price
increase.
Despite these supportive factors, recession
fears remain dominant, likely preventing Brent prices from rising above $81.00.
The geopolitical situation, particularly regarding potential Iranian
retaliation against Israel, adds further uncertainty. While a full-scale attack
by Iran seems possible, ongoing diplomatic efforts by the U.S., China, Russia,
and other nations might prevent such an escalation. If these diplomatic efforts
succeed, Brent prices could continue to decline towards $70.00 per barrel.
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