Gold prices are rising by 2.2% to $2440 per
troy ounce. Prices reached $2458 per ounce this week, nearing the all-time high
of $2483. New records could be imminent for several reasons.
First, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has confirmed
potential interest rate cuts in September. “A rate cut could be on the table in
the September meeting,” Powell told reporters after the central bank decided to
keep rates stable in August. He also noted progress in combating inflation.
This dovish shift is a significant upside factor for gold prices. Bets on
interest rate cuts by the Fed in September are at 100%, according to the CME
FedWatch Tool. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.029%, the lowest since
January 28, providing solid support for rising bullion prices.
Additionally, large investors are increasing
their stakes in gold. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) reported $1.1 billion in net
inflows over the past four weeks. This could translate into a 4-5% upside,
potentially reaching new historic records of $2500-2520 per ounce.
Rising tensions in the Middle East are also
pushing prices up. Hamas's political chief Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated
in Tehran, prompting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to order a
retaliation strike against Israel. The last significant strike by Iran on
Israel in early April caused gold prices to surge by 4% two days before the
event. A similar jump to $2500 per ounce is possible this time.
The U.S. labor market report, expected this
Friday, is anticipated to show further cooling. The Fed has acknowledged the
risk of rising unemployment. If the report indicates a decline, the Fed might
consider a 0.50 basis point interest rate cut in September.
Technically, gold prices have limited upside
above $2500 per ounce, as overbought conditions could increase the risk of a
downturn without a significant correction.
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