Brent crude oil is experiencing a marginal
growth of 0.5%, bringing prices to $85.50 per barrel. This modest increase
comes as prices continue to move sideways within a narrow range, fluctuating
1.7% in either direction since June 19. Such dynamics suggest that oil prices
are poised for a significant movement.
Investor sentiment is divided, with some
anticipating a continuation towards $90.00 per barrel, while others foresee a
retreat to $80.00 per barrel. Over the past two months, prices have been
constrained between these levels, reflecting a tug of war in the market. In
May, prices fell below $80.00 per barrel due to fears of ongoing macroeconomic
cooling and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to raise oil production starting in
October. However, the situation shifted in early June when OPEC+ clarified that
the production increase would be minimal.
Standard Chartered's analysis supports this
view, predicting a Q3 2024 market deficit of 2.0 million barrels, with a
smaller deficit expected in Q4 and no surplus anticipated. The delay in
macroeconomic cooling is further evidenced by stronger-than-expected PMI data
from the United States. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 points, and Services PMI
surged to 55.1 points, both surpassing consensus estimates and indicating continued
economic expansion.
Despite a surprising rise in U.S. oil
inventories by 3.59 million barrels last week, compared to an expected decline
of 2.60 million, prices still increased by 0.5% on the same day. This
resilience is partly due to large investor actions. The United States Oil Fund
LP (USO) reported net inflows of $7.7 million last week and a substantial $31.5
million over three days this week, indicating bullish investor sentiment.
Geopolitical risks also support higher oil
prices. The potential for a ground operation by Israel in Lebanon to counter
the Hezbollah militia group could escalate tensions, involving Iran and
potentially expanding into a regional conflict. This scenario adds upward
pressure on oil prices.
Technically, oil prices might be inclined to
decline, but the influence of political factors suggests an upward momentum
towards $90.00 per barrel of Brent crude.
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