The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady at
105.55 this week. The EURUSD is rising by 0.1% to 1.07180, with the American
currency consolidating after a strong performance last week, during which it
added 0.8%.
The critical development is that EURUSD
declined below the support at 1.08000, which had been holding the pair from
downside moves for more than a month. Shortly after this barrier was breached,
the pair slipped to 1.06670, marking the lowest level since May 1. The
breakthrough of this major support was significant. The price gap at 1.08000
was closed on June 12 following weaker inflation data in the United States. However,
the pair was then reversed by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook on
interest rate cuts in 2024. Policymakers now expect only one rate cut this year
compared to three cuts forecasted in March. Additionally, inflation
expectations were raised to 2.8% YoY from the previous 2.6% forecast in March.
These hawkish signals pushed the EURUSD below 1.08000, and the Dollar continued
to strengthen for the rest of the week. These developments suggest a likely
continuation of the downside movement of the pair towards 1.05000 by the
beginning of July.
This week, the nearest support level would
decline to 1.06000, more than 1.0% to the downside. However, the Greenback may
reach this level only next week following the results of the parliamentary
elections in France.
The WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish
Fund (USDU) reported net fund outflows of $6.7 million last week, compared to
$38.5 million during the previous week. Given these outflows, the recovery of
the EURUSD could potentially be much less significant than it was last week,
when the pair jumped to 1.08520 from 1.07190. This rebound might already be
reflected when the pair climbed to 1.07400 on Monday.
Business activity readings in the United
States will be released this Friday. Wall Street analysts expect both
manufacturing and services PMIs to decline. If these indicators rise instead,
the EURUSD could fall back to the 1.06670 lows, setting the pair up for
continued downside.
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