Gold prices declined by 2.5% to $2,355 per
troy ounce this week, hitting their lowest level since May 15. This drop
follows a sharp reversal after reaching an all-time high of $2,450 per ounce on
Monday. The initial surge to record levels was driven by fears of potential
Middle East conflict escalation after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a
helicopter crash. However, these fears subsided when Iranian authorities
attributed the crash to bad weather conditions. Gold closed Monday at $2,425
and remained close to this level on Tuesday.
By Wednesday, gold lost ground after the
publication of the FOMC Minutes, which revealed a more hawkish stance from the
Federal Reserve than the immediate post-meeting decisions had suggested. The
Fed maintained interest rates but cut its quantitative tightening program
further. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly stated that no further interest
rate hikes were planned. However, the Minutes indicated disappointment with Q1
2024 inflation slowdown and emphasized the need to maintain high interest rates
until clear evidence of declining inflation appears. Hawkish Fed members are
even open to another rate hike if inflation remains stubborn in May and June.
Despite this hawkish tone, the U.S. debt
market largely ignored the FOMC Minutes, with 10-year government debt yields
staying around 4.42% throughout the week. Bets on a Fed rate cut in September
remained stable at 49.50-50.50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) saw $504.9 million
in net inflows last week, the largest since mid-March when $1.2 billion flowed
into the fund. While large investors can be wrong, their March investments
preceded a 13% rise in gold prices. Their current stake suggests expectations of
a dovish Fed stance, with geopolitical tensions potentially pushing gold prices
higher.
Weak macroeconomic data in the United States
also support an upside scenario for gold, though technical analysis points to
limited upside opportunities. Gold has already hit extreme upside targets at
$2,400-2,500 per ounce, indicating that a bold correction might be necessary
for prices to go higher. This scenario seems likely in the coming weeks,
especially if prices dip below the support range of $2,290-2,310 per ounce.
Upcoming U.S. GDP or PCE index data could help determine the next market move.
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