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Opiniones de mercado
Por tipo de mercado
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19.12.2024
Gold prices are down 1.4% this week, trading
at $2,615 per troy ounce, recovering from a steep 2.4% decline on Wednesday
that brought prices to $2,582, their lowest level since November 18. The market
is at a critical juncture, with the potential for further declines to
$2,300-$2,500 or a renewed rally towards $3,100-$3,200. This delicate balance
follows the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which has put downward pressure
on the yellow metal.
The Fed implemented a quarter-point interest
rate cut to 4.50% but maintained a strongly hawkish outlook.
17.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar index is trading neutrally
around 107.00 points this week, with EURUSD down by 0.68% to 1.04800. The major
currency pair failed to hold above the resistance at 1.05400-1.05600, despite
several attempts at the start of the previous week. However, the Dollar resumed
its climb following the release of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data for
November.
Consumer prices rose to 2.7% YoY in November,
up from 2.6%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at
3.3% YoY. The EURUSD closed last Wednesday within the resistance zone at
1.05400-1.
12.12.2024
Brent crude prices rose by 3.0% to $73.48 per
barrel this week, recovering from a support zone at $69.00-71.00 per barrel.
While this bounce offers a slight safety margin, it does not eliminate the risk
of a sharp decline toward $60.00 per barrel. The technical outlook remains
bearish, as the recovery attempts are becoming increasingly short-lived,
signaling intensifying pressure on oil prices. A decisive move above $76.00 per
barrel is necessary to improve the chances of an upside scenario and mitigate the
risk of a drop to $59.00-61.00 per barrel.
10.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.19% this
week, reaching 106.27 points, while the EURUSD pair is down 0.20% to 1.05370.
The pair has repeatedly failed to break above the 1.05400-1.05600 resistance
zone. However, its continued higher lows suggest an "ascending
triangle" pattern, often indicative of a potential upside breakout. While
this is worth noting, the situation remains inconclusive for now.
The WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish
Fund (USDU) showed neutral capital flows last week after $7.
05.12.2024
Gold prices have remained neutral at $2,644
per troy ounce this week, with the market appearing to pause ahead of an
anticipated sharp move. The potential for a correction toward $2,300–$2,500 or
a surge to $3,100–$3,200 per ounce is backed by compelling arguments on both
sides.
Last week, geopolitical developments
influenced gold prices significantly. The nomination of billionaire hedge fund
manager Scott Bessent as Secretary of the Treasury by U.S. President-elect
Donald Trump signaled potential tariff easing on China, calming investor fears.
03.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining 0.45%
to 106.22 points, while the EURUSD is down 0.51% to 1.05270. This follows last
week’s 1.6% decline in the Dollar, which saw the EURUSD close at 1.05810.
Despite recent volatility, the pair has managed to hold above the critical
resistance at 1.05300-1.05500, keeping the bullish scenario toward
1.09500-1.10500 intact. A price gap at 1.05800 remains unclosed from Monday,
and its resolution—particularly after Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—could signal a
decisive move for the pair.
Geopolitical factors are adding pressure on
the Euro, as U.S.
28.11.2024
Brent crude oil is down 3.8% this week,
trading at $72.35 per barrel and hovering near key support at $69.00–71.00 per
barrel. This marks the fifth test of this level since mid-September and the
third since late October, with the frequency of these attempts increasing. Each
bounce from support has been weaker, signaling waning buyer interest and
growing vulnerability to a breakdown. Should prices breach this level, a deeper
decline toward $59.00–61.00 per barrel seems likely.
26.11.2024
The U.S. Dollar is
weakening this week, with the Dollar Index (DXY) losing 0.63% to 106.83 points,
while the EURUSD is rising by 0.9% to 1.05100. Last week, the EURUSD traded
sideways around 1.05000 before the release of Eurozone business activity data. Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.2 points, below the consensus of 46.0,
while Services PMI dropped into contraction territory at 49.2 points, down from
51.6 points.
This disappointing data sent the Euro down by
1.6% to 1.03310 against the Dollar. In contrast, U.S. business activity has
shown signs of improvement.
21.11.2024
Gold prices are up 4.0% this week, reaching
$2,667 per troy ounce, marking their strongest weekly gain since late March.
This rally has nearly erased the previous week’s record decline of 4.3%, a move
not seen in the past three years. The earlier drop in gold was largely driven
by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, following an
uptick in U.S. inflation data for October. Headline inflation rose to 2.6% YoY,
while producer prices increased to 2.4% YoY, prompting Powell to state that there
is no urgency to cut interest rates. This stance pushed U.S.
19.11.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.18% to 106.46
points, while EURUSD is rising, gaining 0.25% to 1.05560. The U.S. presidential
election victory of Donald Trump halted EURUSD’s ascent at 1.09380, leading to
a 1.0% decline last week to 1.07180. This downward trend extended with another
1.7% drop to 1.05270, driven by rising U.S. inflation and hawkish rhetoric from
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
October’s headline inflation increased to 2.6%
YoY from 2.4%, while producer prices surged to 2.4% YoY from 1.9%.
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