Opiniones de mercado

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09.10.2025
Gold prices rose 3.8% to $4,033 per troy ounce this week, though such gains have almost become routine as the metal continues setting fresh all-time highs nearly every other day over the past six weeks. The latest record was reached on Wednesday at $4,059 per ounce. The rally accelerated sharply from October 1, following the start of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of weak ADP Nonfarm Payrolls data for September. Gold broke above resistance at $3,780, jumping 2.0% to $3,835 in a single session, which confirmed a move toward the next target at $3,860–$3,880 per ounce.
07.10.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.65% to 98.38 points this week, while the EURUSD declined by 0.55% to 1.16740. This Dollar rally amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown appears counterintuitive, as such periods typically weaken the Greenback. Indeed, following the shutdown on Wednesday last week, the EURUSD initially climbed 0.68% to 1.17780, approaching resistance at 1.17600–1.17800, a breakout above which would have confirmed a renewed rally toward the 1.19500–1.20500 zone.
02.10.2025
Brent crude prices declined by 4.7% to $65.95 per barrel, returning to the support zone of $65.00–$67.00 and erasing last week’s attempt to break higher. The brief rally had been fuelled by speculation over potential new sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, with the U.S. and EU exchanging proposals. Europeans sought tougher restrictions, while Washington conditioned its support on a full European phase-out of Russian energy imports alongside higher tariffs on China and India to curb their purchases of Russian oil. Fundamentals temporarily reinforced the move after U.S.
30.09.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.44% to 97.71 points this week, while the EURUSD rose by 0.48% to 1.17560. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell briefly pressured the Euro last Tuesday. Although his tone was slightly more dovish than in his post-meeting comments on September 17, he still admitted that earlier Fed forecasts had overestimated the inflationary effects of U.S. president Donald Trump’s tariffs. The following day, the EURUSD dropped by 0.59% to 1.17370, and after stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data revised upward to 3.8% QoQ from 3.3%, the pair fell another 0.
25.09.2025
Gold surged 2.0% this week to $3,759 per troy ounce, setting another all-time high at $3,791. The breakout confirms the start of an extreme rally toward the $3,850–$3,950 target zone. The rally was already in motion before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, as bullion cleared the critical $3,610–$3,630 resistance. A textbook retest followed when Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a hawkish tone, briefly pushing prices down to $3,627. The dip proved short-lived, with investors dismissing Powell’s stance as political posturing rather than an economic necessity.
23.09.2025
The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.28% this week to 97.36, while the EURUSD advanced 0.51% to 1.18010. The pair accelerated toward its extreme target of 1.19500–1.20500, closing last Tuesday at 1.18600 and surging to 1.19180 the next day following a 25 bps Fed rate cut. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickly turned the tide with a sharply hawkish tone. He stressed inflation risks, expressed concern about the labour market, and emphasised the Fed’s independence from the White House, which overshadowed the updated dot plot chart showing two more cuts in 2025.
18.09.2025
Brent crude prices gained 1.4% to $68.02 per barrel this week, though the move remains confined to the $66.00–$68.00 support zone, suggesting little more than volatility within an extended sideways range. Investor positioning reflects the lack of conviction. Large investors sold $700,000 worth of shares in the United States Oil Fund (USO) last week, only to buy back $6.6 million this week, underscoring uncertainty about the next directional move. Monetary developments have had limited influence.
16.09.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.31% to 97.14 points, while the EURUSD advanced 0.50% to 1.17910. The recent upside momentum suggests a long-awaited acceleration toward the extreme target zone of 1.19500–1.20500. Since August 6, the pair had been confined within a sideways range of 1.16000–1.17000. The breakout above resistance, triggered by weak Nonfarm Payrolls data, was followed by a week-long retest. With this week’s move toward 1.18000, the breakout now appears confirmed, leaving the path higher open.
11.09.2025
Gold prices climbed 1.1% to $3,627 per troy ounce this week, setting a new all-time high at $3,674 — the fifth record in the past eight trading sessions. This pace of gains is forcing investors to weigh the possibility of further upside. A sustained hold above $3,600 could extend the rally toward the extreme target of $3,850–$3,950. On a three- to six-month horizon, however, current levels appear overstretched. Bullion has not been this extremely overbought since 1975. Yet in the near term, momentum remains strong and the news backdrop continues to support higher prices.
09.09.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.39% to 97.38 this week, while the EURUSD advanced 0.31% to 1.17590. Gains in the Euro were tempered by political instability in France, where the government was dismissed, marking the fourth resignation in two years. Market reaction was relatively muted, although 10-year French government bond yields edged higher to 3.48% from 3.40%. Investors, however, remain more focused on U.S. macroeconomic signals than European political risk. The spotlight is on the U.S. labour market.
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