• Análisis
  • Noticias y herramientas
  • Noticias del mercado

Noticias de mercados

ATENCIÓN: El material en la sección de noticias y analítica se actualiza automáticamente, el reinicio de la página puede hacer que el proceso de aparición del nuevo material sea más lento. Para recibir los materiales de forma operativa, recomendamos mantener la sección de noticias constantemente abierta.
Filtrar por pares de divisas
DJIA -1.72% 21,044.08 -369.36 Nasdaq -1.81% 7,351.85 -135.46 S&P -1.72% 2,483.40 -43.50
Key events for next week: UK construction PMI, RBA interest rate decision, FOMC minutes, UK GDP, Canada unemployment rate, China and US consumer price index.

On Monday, at 01:00 GMT, Australia will report inflation data from MI for March, and at 01:30 GMT, the ANZ job number index for March. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will announce changes in industrial orders for February. Also on Monday an emergency OPEC will be held. At 08:30 GMT, UK will release the PMI for the construction sector for March. Also at 08:30 GMT, the Euro zone will publish the investor confidence indicator from Sentix for April. At 14:30 GMT, in Canada the Bank of Canada's business Outlook review will be released. At 22:00 GMT, New Zealand will present the business environment sentiment indicator from NZIER for the 1st quarter. At 22:30 GMT, Australia will release the AIG services activity index for March. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will report changes in the level of wages and household spending for February.

On Tuesday, at 01:30 GMT, Australia will announce a change in the foreign trade balance for February. At 04:30 GMT in Australia, the RBA's interest rate decision will be announced. At 05:00 GMT, Japan will publish an index of leading economic indicators for February. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will announce changes in industrial production for February. At 06:45 GMT, France will announce a change in the trade balance for February. At 07:00 GMT, Switzerland will report changes in the foreign currency reserves for March. At 07:30 GMT, UK will release the Halifax house price index for March. At 14:00 GMT in the US, the JOLTs Job Openings for February will be released. Also at 14:00 GMT, Canada will publish the Ivey managers ' business activity index for March. At 19:00 GMT, the US will announce changes in the volume of consumer lending for February. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will report changes in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment and the current account balance for February.

On Wednesday, at 05:00 GMT, Japan will present the current situation index from Eco Watchers for March. At 05:45 GMT, Switzerland will announce the change in the unemployment rate for March. At 12:15 GMT, Canada will report a change in the housing starts in March, and at 12:30 GMT, a change in the building permits for February. At 14:30 GMT, the US will announce changes in oil reserves according to the Ministry of energy. At 18:00 GMT in the US, the FOMC meeting minutes will be published.

On Thursday, at 00:30 GMT, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will deliver a speech. At 01:30 GMT, in Australia the RBA's financial stability report will be released. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will announce changes in the foreign trade balance for February and the volume of orders for equipment for March. Also at 06:00 GMT, UK will report changes in GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production and the visible trade balance for February. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report changes in the unemployment rate and employment for March. Also at 12:30 GMT, the US will publish the producer price index for March and report changes in initial jobless claims. At 13:00 GMT in UK, NIESR GDP estimate will be released. At 14: 00 GMT, the US will present the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for April and announce changes in the wholesale inventories for February.

On Friday, at 01:30 GMT, China will present the consumer price index and producer price index for March. At 06:45 GMT, France will announce changes in industrial production for February. At 12:30 GMT, the US will release the consumer price index for March. At 17:00 GMT the US will release a Baker Hughes report on the number of active oil rigs.

U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, April 562
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 5,406.17 -74.05 -1.35% DAX 9,525.77 -45.05 -0.47% CAC 40 4,154.58 -66.38 -1.57%
NFP: Coronavirus showed up earlier than expected – RBC

FXStreet reports that according to Nathan Janzen, a Senior Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the beginning of US layoffs tied to the coronavirus showed up earlier than expected, but the drop in March is still far from an accurate picture of labour markets today.

“The 701K employment decline in March was already the largest since the financial crisis. The unemployment rate spiked by almost a full percentage point to 4.4% and broader measures of labour market under-utilization jumped more than that.”

“The April jobs decline will almost certainly be the biggest in recorded history, and measured in the millions rather than thousands. The April unemployment rate could well jump to 15% or more.”

“The reality is that activity is not going to bounce-back overnight, and some businesses will be forced to permanently shut their doors. The longer the current disruptions last, the longer the recovery on the back-end is likely to take.”

Germany's finance minister Scholz: Planning to allocate EUR 50 billion to stimulus programme designed to get economy moving again after coronavirus crisis ends - Reuters reports, citing Der Spiegel magazine

  • We are planning also to make use of a reserve earlier set aside for integrating refugees as part of stimulus package, which will also involve measures to spark private sector investment
  • Says worst possible thing would be to save against crisis in middle of a crisis; We must do precisely opposite

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: U.S. needs fourth stimulus bill

  • $2 trillion stimulus bill was just a down payment
  • Small businesses need additional money
  • We need more money for states, cities
  • We have a good model for future programs
  • U.S. must address capabilities to make drugs

White House economic advisor Kudlow says banks are ready to go on coronavirus small business loan program

  • Does not see any roadblocks on small business loan program
  • Leading bankers talking to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on relief lending
  • May seek relief loans expansion if needed
  • Does not expect tariff rollback due to virus
  • Individual tariff exemption cases could still be examined
  • Pulling tariffs would send the wrong signal on trade policy
  • U.S. is talking to Russia, Saudis on oil. No need to go via OPEC
  • President Trump talks with Russia, Saudis will yield results
  • U.S. cannot dictate decisions on oil production to U.S. companies
  • President Trump will stand up to any efforts to collude in energy markets that impacts U.S. industry

NFP: The USD is still the best of a bad lot – TDS

FXStreet reports that in the opinion of economists at TD Securities, nonfarm payrolls much weaker than expected, but still not nearly as weak as seems likely for the April report in early May.

“Payrolls were -701K in March, much weaker than the -100k consensus; the TD Securities forecast was -200k. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% from 3.5%, well above the 3.8% consensus.”

“The foreign exchange market is fairly well-kept following this awful number. Unfortunately, the jobs data will only get materially worse for April.”

“Once the dust settles and the recessionary mindset is now afoot, the USD is still the best of a bad lot. We struggle to think that any of the majors poses a threat to the depth and liquidity of the world's reserve currency.”

U.S. non-manufacturing sector’s growth decelerates in March - ISM

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Friday its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 52.5 in March, which was 4.8 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.3 percent. The March reading pointed to the slowest expansion in the services sector since August 2016.

Economists forecast the index to decrease to 44.0 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 9 reported growth last month, the ISM said, adding that the respondents were concerned about the coronavirus impact on the supply chain, operational capacity, human resources and finances, as well as the ramifications for the overall economy.

According to the report, the ISM's non-manufacturing business activity measure fell to 48 percent, 9.8 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.8 percent. That reflected contraction for the first time since July 2009. The new orders gauge came in at 52.9 percent, 10.2 percentage points below the reading of 63.1 percent in February. The Employment Index fell by 8.6 percentage points to 47 percent from the February reading of 55.6 percent. The Prices Index of 50 percent was 0.8 percentage point lower than the February reading of 50.8 percent, indicating that prices were unchanged in March. Meanwhile, the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 62.1 percent, up 9.7 percentage points from the February reading of 52.4 percent, and limited the drop in the composite NMI.

Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for March (52.5 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

U.S. services sector activity declines less than initially estimated in March - IHS Markit

The latest report by IHS Markit revealed on Friday the seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index (PMI) stood at 39.8 in March, sharply down from 49.4 in February but up from the earlier released "flash" figure of 39.1. Nonetheless, the latest reading pointed to the quickest decline in output since data collection began in October 2009.

The reading signaled the fastest business activity expansion across the U.S. service sector since April.

Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 39.1.

According to the report, business activity fell markedly following a steep drop in new orders, largely stemming from the outbreak of COVID-19. New orders received by service providers fell at the sharpest rate since the survey began, as customer and business closures led to client cancellations. The pace of job shedding was the joint-fastest since December 2009, as firms stated that lower new business inflows resulted in redundancies and enforced hiring freezes.

U.S.: ISM Non-Manufacturing, March 52.5 (forecast 44)
U.S.: Services PMI, March 39.8 (forecast 39.1)
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.30%, Nasdaq -0.22%, S&P -0.41%
IEA says OPEC+ cut of 10 million barrels per day is not enough to stabilize oil market
  • Even with the cut they see a potential build of 15 million barrels per day in supplies
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.50%, NASDAQ futures -0.54%

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday after the U.S. government reported a plunge in nonfarm payrolls for last month. However, the decline was mitigated by a continuing rally in crude oil.

Global Stocks:



Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %





Hang Seng
























Crude oil






Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

3M Co















Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ





American Express Co










Apple Inc.





AT&T Inc





Boeing Co





Caterpillar Inc





Chevron Corp





Cisco Systems Inc





Citigroup Inc., NYSE





Exxon Mobil Corp





Facebook, Inc.





FedEx Corporation, NYSE





Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE





Ford Motor Co.





General Electric Co





General Motors Company, NYSE





Goldman Sachs





Google Inc.





Hewlett-Packard Co.





Home Depot Inc










Intel Corp





International Business Machines Co...





Johnson & Johnson





JPMorgan Chase and Co





McDonald's Corp





Merck & Co Inc





Microsoft Corp










Pfizer Inc





Procter & Gamble Co





Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ





Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ





The Coca-Cola Co





Twitter, Inc., NYSE





UnitedHealth Group Inc





Verizon Communications Inc










Wal-Mart Stores Inc





Walt Disney Co





Yandex N.V., NASDAQ





Upgrades before the market open

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; target lowered to $35

Altria (MO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Panmure

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank; target lowered to $43

U.S. nonfarm payrolls decrease much more than expected in March

The U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 701,000 in March after an upwardly revised 275,000 gain in the prior month (originally an increase of 273,000). That was the first decline in payrolls since September 2010 and reflected the effects of the coronavirus and efforts to contain it.

According to the report, significant job drops in March occurred in leisure and hospitality (-459,000 jobs, mainly in food services and drinking places), health care and social assistance (-61,000), professional and business services (-52,000), retail trade (-46,000), and construction (-29,000).

The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent in March from 3.5 percent in February. That was the highest level since August 2017.

Economists had forecast the nonfarm payrolls to decrease by 100,000 and the jobless rate to rise to 3.8 percent.

The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 62.7 percent in March, while hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 0.4 percent m-o-m (+11 cents) to $28.62, following an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m gain in February. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in the average hourly earnings. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent, following an unrevised 3.0 percent rise in February.

The average workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.2 hours in March, exceeding economists' forecast for 34.1 hours.

U.S.: Government Payrolls, March 12
U.S.: Manufacturing Payrolls, March -54 (forecast -20)
U.S.: Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March -713 (forecast -163)
U.S.: Average workweek, March 34.2 (forecast 34.1)
U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, March -701 (forecast -100)
U.S.: Unemployment Rate, March 4.4% (forecast 3.8%)
U.S.: Labor Force Participation Rate, March 62.7% (forecast 63.3%)
U.S.: Average hourly earnings , March 0.4% (forecast 0.2%)
Russia is ready to agree to oil output cuts together with other major producers to halt decline in oil prices - Bloomberg reports, citing five people familiar with the matter
UK's PM Johnson says he must continue self-isolation as he still has minor symptoms
Eurozone: Mechanisms to prevent a continuation of the corona crisis – Natixis

FXStreet reports that according to economists at Natixis, the economic policy conducted in response to the coronavirus crisis should prevent the same mechanisms as those seen after the 2008-2009 crisis in the eurozone. 

“The ECB need to monetise fiscal deficits, to prevent the rise in public debt from worsening the countries’ fiscal solvency; if the ECB buys government bonds and keeps them irreversibly on its balance sheet, these bonds held by the ECB no longer have any effect on the countries’ fiscal solvency.”

“There is a need to prevent corporate bankruptcies (to prevent a banking crisis and capital destruction), hence the importance of measures to support companies decided by all countries in 2020.

“The necessity to prevent the rise in corporate debt from leading to a decline in corporate investment after the coronavirus crisis, hence the importance of trying to strengthen companies’ equity capital and implementing investment support measures.”

European session review: GBP weakens against most major counterparts after gloomy UK’s PMI data

Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast Actual
07:50 France Services PMI March 52.5 29.0 27.4
07:55 Germany Services PMI March 52.5 34.3 31.7
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI March 52.6 28.4 26.4
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services March 53.2 34.8 34.5
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February 0.7% 0.1% 0.9%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 2.2% 1.7% 3%

GBP depreciated against most other major currencies in the European session on Friday, weighed down by UK's March PMI data. The sterling weakened against USD, EUR, JPY, CHF and CAD, but it rose against AUD and NZD.

The report from IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) showed on Friday that the final UK Composite Output Index, covering the country's manufacturing and service sectors, dropped sharply from 53.0 in February to 36.0 in March, the lowest level since this series began in January 1998. The latest figure was below the earlier "flash" reading of 37.1 in March and also pointed to a slightly quicker decrease in the UK's private sector output than that recorded at the height of the global financial crisis (index at 38.1 in November 2008). According to the report, the slump in overall business activity was driven by a record fall in service sector activity, alongside the fastest drop in manufacturing production since July 2012.

The UK's March PMI data added to the increasingly grim economic statistics reported recently across the developed world as the countries' measures to fight the COVID-19 pandemic hurt business operations and trigger job losses.

UK's heath secretary Hancock says Easter Sunday could be peak for coronavirus outbreak in UK
Equity Markets: Another leg lower is coming – Nordea

FXStreet notes that a perfect bear market rally may have just concluded. Equities should head lower, in the opinion of analysts at Nordea.

“A perfect bear market rally may have just concluded. It was set up by oversold conditions and underpinned by a plethora of policy measures from central banks and authorities and by rebalancing of pooled portfolios needing to buy equities to revamp the allocation.” 

“Smart money likely sold equities into the final hours of the quarter-end and to us it looks like another leg lower in equities could be coming now.”

“It is by the way not unusual to see these kinds of rallies during a bear market. We had similar rallies post dotcom and Lehman and for some reason the larger the rebound, the deeper the subsequent setback on average.”

“The equity market will have to look for clues on how long a curfew/recession the world economy will be faced with. Saying that Q2 will be historically poor is just so old news by now. Smart thoughts on Q3 and Q4 are much scarcer.”

Labour Market: The European model is superior to the American – Natixis

FXStreet notes that the traditional functioning of the labour market in a recession is that in the US, companies lay off workers suddenly and rapidly while in the euro zone, the adjustment in employment is far slower, per Natixis.

“The European model of employment adjustment in a recession (slow, cushioned as much as possible) is superior to the US model (drastic adjustment of employment) because it prevents a worsening of the crisis through a decline in household demand and a loss of human capital.”

“The flaw of the European model is that the slow and cushioned adjustment in employment leads to a decline in companies’ profitability and capacity to invest. However, a new European model is emerging with the coronavirus crisis.”

“Efforts are being made to limit the fall in corporate earnings as much as possible: government coverage of the wages of employees on short-time working schemes, deferral of taxes and certain charges, which limits the disadvantage of the European model compared with the US model.”

Coronavirus: Japan’s capital records 89 new coronavirus cases on Friday

This is below 97 new cases reported on Thursday, which was the biggest daily increase in Tokyo, and brings the Japanese capital's total tally to 773 cases.

Tokyo's governor Yuriko Koike again asked residents to refrain from non-essential outings, especially at night and on weekends.

AUD/USD: Global recession not reflected in the Aussie – ANZ

FXStreet notes that despite improvements in the risk environment, it’s not clear that the increased default risk is adequately reflected in the AUD/USD pair. The resilience of the Aussie appears premised on a V-shaped recover, per ANZ Bank.

“The market is underweighting the duration of the shock to global commerce and overweighting the prospects of a V-shape recovery.”

“We think AUD/USD current levels are towards the top of the trading range and hold a downside bias for the next quarter.”

“We are comfortable retaining a forecast for the Aussie in the low 0.50s, but note that bottom is likely to come in the latter part of the second quarter.”

Kremlin spokesman: Won't confirm if Russia will join OPEC+ meeting on April 6
  • Says Russia's president Putin is to meet with officials and oil industry executives today
OPEC+ delegate said to see a global output cut of 10 mil bpd as a realistic goal - Bloomberg, citing an OPEC+ delegate on the matter

  • OPEC+ wants global oil producers meeting as soon as possible

  • OPEC+ encouraging other producers to join the meeting

Gold: Maintaining its safe-haven status – OCBC

FXStreet reports that gold seems to have lost its safe-haven allure in the past weeks. Logically, this makes little sense and is highly counter-intuitive, according to economists at OCBC Bank.

"As Covid-19 started to invoke fears of a dollar liquidity crunch, gold became a ripe candidate for a selloff as was a highly liquid asset and one of the few markets still posting year-to-date gains."

"Gold properties - rare, inert and high density - still makes it one of the top choices as an alternative asset to stocks and bonds."

"The current liquidity crunch highlights inherent failings within the economic system and does not suggest gold has lost its status as a safe-haven."

Euro zone retail sales rose sharply in February

According to estimates from Eurostat, in February 2020 - the month before COVID-19 containment measures began to be widely introduced by Member States -, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU, compared with January 2020. In January 2020, the retail trade volume increased by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU. In February 2020 compared with February 2019, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 3.0% in the euro area and by 3.2% in the EU.

In the euro area in February 2020, compared with January 2020, the volume of retail trade increased by 2.4% for food, drinks and tobacco and 0.2% for non-food products, while automotive fuels fell by 0.1%. In the EU, the volume of retail trade increased by 2.1% for food, drinks and tobacco, by 0.2% for non-food products and by 0.1% for automotive fuels.

In the euro area in February 2020, compared with February 2019, the volume of retail trade increased by 3.2% for food, drinks and tobacco, by 2.9% for non-food products and by 0.3% for automotive fuel. In the EU, the retail trade volume increased by 3.6% for non-food products, by 3.1% for food, drinks and tobacco and by 0.6% for automotive fuel.

Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), February 3% (forecast 1.7%)
Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), February 0.9% (forecast 0.1%)
UK Services PMI showed a record fall in March - IHS Markit/CIPS

According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, March data indicated the steepest downturn across the UK service sector for more than two decades. The slump in activity was almost exclusively linked by survey respondents to business shutdowns and cancelled orders in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Final UK Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 34.5 in March, below the earlier 'flash' reading of 35.7 and down sharply from 53.2 in February. This reading exceeded the previous record low seen at the height of the global financial crisis and signalled by far the fastest downturn in service sector output since the survey began in July 1996. The latest survey data were collected between 12-27 March.

Sharp reductions in activity were broad-based across the sector during March, with only the technology services subcategory recording pockets of continued business expansion. Mirroring the trend for output volumes, latest data indicated a survey-record drop in new work received by service providers. The rate of decline was also much sharper than the previous record seen in November 2008. Survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed lower demand to a slump in business and consumer spending amid emergency public health measures to halt the spread of COVID-19. New business from abroad fell at an even faster pace than that signalled for total orders during March, reflecting international travel restrictions and widespread business closures across Europe.

Employment numbers fell for the first time in five months and at the fastest rate since June 2009. Service providers commented on a mixture of hiring freezes and forced redundancies amid the slump in business activity seen during March.

Meanwhile, business expectations for the next 12 months dropped to the lowest in more than twenty years of data collection. Survey respondents overwhelmingly cited the public health crisis and uncertainty about the likely length of disruption to business operations.

United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services, March 34.5 (forecast 34.8)
Singapore tightens restrictive measures, to go into effect from next Tuesday

  • Singapore to close schools and most workplaces except for essential services

  • To move to full home-based learning for schools

  • To tighten restrictions on movements, gatherings

  • Calls for citizens to stay at home as much as possible

Eurozone economy suffers record fall in activity during March - IHS Markit

According to the report from IHS Markit, the Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index recorded its biggest ever single monthly fall in March to hit a survey record low of 29.7. Not only was the index down from February's 51.6, it was also notably weaker than the earlier flash estimate of 31.4 as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic impacted heavily on the euro area's private sector economy.

Both sectors covered by the survey recorded notable falls in output during March, with the greater decline seen in services where a series record fall in activity was registered. Goods producers saw production decline for a fourteenth successive month, and at the sharpest rate since April 2009.

Country level data indicated that falls in activity were considerable and wide-reaching across the eurozone during March. The four largest nations covered by the survey all registered record declines in activity, with Italy and Spain experiencing the sharpest reductions.

Confidence about the future was the lowest recorded by the survey since data were first available in July 2012. Worries over COVID-19 and the various measures designed to contain the outbreak, plus the uncertainty over how long these could be in place for, weighed heavily on sentiment. Confidence deteriorated to record lows across all nations during March. Such uncertainty led many companies to reduce their employment levels. According to the March data, job losses were registered for the first time in over five years. Moreover, the rate of contraction was the sharpest since June 2009 with job losses registered across all nations covered by the survey. Spain recorded the sharpest contraction in employment.

Eurozone: Services PMI, March 26.4 (forecast 28.4)
Germany: Services PMI, March 31.7 (forecast 34.3)
France: Services PMI, March 27.4 (forecast 29.0)
Japan may declare state of emergency at 'any day' now, the Nikkei reports citing a senior LDP official
Oil: Any agreement on production cuts will have minimal impact – ANZ

FXStreet reports that Crude oil prices soared higher after reports major producers would cut production. Volatility in the oil market is likely to remain high as the market contemplates possible production cuts, per ANZ Bank.

"President Trump tweeted that he has spoken with Russia and Saudi Arabia and that a 10-15mb/d production cut had been agreed to."

"Saudi Arabia did hold out an oil branch, calling for an urgent meeting of the OPEC+ alliance to reach a fair deal that would restore balance to the oil markets. However, we believe any agreement on production cuts will have minimal impact on the oil market."

"The closing of borders and lockdowns has had a precipitous impact on oil demand. Overall we calculate world crude oil demand has fallen by about 20mb/d."

ECB's Rehn: Euro area needs strong fiscal policy response

  • PEPP is the central pillar of ECB crisis response to the virus outbreak

  • OMT is part of our toolbox

  • Doesn't want to speculate about the use of OMT

  • Most urgent thing is coordinated fiscal policy response

France says that will likely extend lockdown measures

  • Not considering to loosen lockdown measures next week

NZD/USD still seen within a consolidative range – UOB

FXStreet reports that following the recent price action in NZD/USD, FX Strategists at UOB Group expect the pair to remain side-lined for the time being.

24-hour view: "NZD traded between 0.5881 and 0.5973 yesterday, relatively close to our expected range of 0.5890/0.5990. The underlying tone has weakened and a dip below the strong support at 0.5880 would not be surprising. That said, 0.5850 is another strong support and this level may not yield as easily. On the upside, 0.5980 is likely strong enough to cap any intraday recovery (minor resistance is at 0.5950)."

Next 1-3 weeks: "While our 'strong support' level of 0.5880 'survived' for the second straight day (overnight low of 0.5881), the price action is enough to indicate that last Friday's (27 Mar) high of 0.6067 is a short-term top. From here, the immediate risk is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.5820/0.6020 range (a sustained decline below 0.5820 appears unlikely for now). In other words, NZD is likely to trade within a broad range a period."

ADB cuts developing Asia's growth outlook sharply on Covid-19 impact

In the Asian Development Outlook, released Friday, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that regional economic growth in developing Asia will decline sharply in 2020 due to the effects of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, before recovering in 2021.

The report forecasts regional growth of 2.2% in 2020, a downward revision of 3.3 percentage points relative to the 5.5% ADB had forecast in September 2019. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021, assuming that the outbreak ends and activity normalizes. Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China, developing Asia is forecast to grow 2.4% this year, compared to 5.7% in 2019, before rebounding to 6.7% next year.

"The evolution of the global pandemic-and thus the outlook for the global and regional economy-is highly uncertain. Growth could turn out lower, and the recovery slower, than we are currently forecasting. For this reason, strong and coordinated efforts are needed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and minimize its economic impact, especially on the most vulnerable," said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.

In the People's Republic of China (PRC), a sharp contraction in industry, services, retail sales, and investment in the first quarter due to the COVID-19 outbreak will pull growth down to 2.3% this year. Growth will rebound to an above normal 7.3% in 2021 before reverting back to normal growth.

Underpinning much of the weakness across Asia is a deteriorating external environment, with growth stagnating or contracting in the major industrial economies of the United States, Euro area, and Japan. Some commodity and oil exporters, such as those in Central Asia, will be hit by a collapse in commodity prices. Brent oil prices are expected to average $35 per barrel this year, down from $64 in 2019.

EUR/USD: A test of 1.0635 remains off the table in the near term – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD stays weak although a move to YTD lows looks unlikely in the short-term horizon.

24-hour view: "We expected EUR to weaken yesterday but held the view that it is 'unlikely to threaten the strong support at 1.0840'. The subsequent weakness exceeded our expectation as EUR slumped to an overnight low of 1.0819. The breach of the strong support coupled with improved downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to weaken further towards 1.0785. For today, the next support at 1.0750 is likely out of reach. Overall, the current downward pressure in EUR is deemed intact unless it can recover back above 1.0900 (minor resistance is at 1.0870)."

Next 1-3 weeks: "The ease by which EUR took out the strong support at 1.0840 came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.0819). The rapid decline and the subsequent weak daily closing in NY (1.0856, -0.96%) suggest there is room for EUR to weaken further in the coming days. At this stage, it is premature to expect EUR to revisit last month's low at 1.0635 (there is a relatively strong support at 1.0700). Meanwhile, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.0980 ('strong resistance' level)."

Coronavirus: South Korea cases top 10,000, Singapore reports fifth death
  • CNBC reports that the death toll from the fast-spreading coronavirus rose and at least 52,863 people have lost their lives to COVID-19, according to the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University.

  • South Korea reported 86 new coronavirus cases, taking the country's tally to 10,062 so far, according to the latest data by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  • Germany's death toll crossed 1,000 after the country reported another 145 fatalities relating to the coronavirus, latest data by the Robert Koch Institute showed.

  • Global cases: More than 1,016,000.

  • Global deaths: At least 53,100.

  • Top 5 countries: United States (245,540), Italy (115,242), Spain (112,065), Germany (84,794), and China (82,456).

OPEC+ said to be preparing for meeting, possible to happen next week - Russia’s TASS news agency
USD: Too early to buy into the negative USD story - Nordea

eFXdata reports that Nordea Research discusses the USD outlook and adopts a bearish bias in the medium-term but warns that it's too early to position structurally for such weakness.

"The launch of the QE-ternity program from the Fed will likely prove to be a material negative USD game-changer down the road. A LOT of new USDs will be printed, which is usually a USD negative story, but we are not sure that QE matters a lot in the short term, if curfews are prolonged and disinflationary risks remain high. So far, the price action since the Fed launched the QE-bazooka has been supportive of inflation expectations, which is a negative USD story. Ultimately, we remain firm that a negative USD bias is very warranted over the next 6-12 months (10% weaker USD is not out of the question), but we think it is too early to really buy into the negative USD story," Nordea notes.

"In a complete meltdown globally, we would reckon that EUR/USD could go to parity or even below (Cable would like also go to parity), but we are not ready to call for such a scenario, but consider the tail risk very fat on the global scenario - also in FX space," Nordea adds.

Options levels on friday, April 3, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD


Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1102 (2603)

$1.1052 (1401)

$1.1003 (4298)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0848

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0793 (3418)

$1.0746 (2374)

$1.0698 (4035)


- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 3 is 85877 contracts (according to data from April, 2) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4298);


Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2651 (399)

$1.2555 (393)

$1.2471 (605)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2388

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2245 (366)

$1.2197 (90)

$1.2099 (42)


- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 3 is 20132 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (2376);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 3 is 23055 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2837);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, April 2, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 27.94 20.12
WTI 23.72 18.84
Silver 14.45 3.66
Gold 1610.997 1.21
Palladium 2209.4 -0.21
China: Markit/Caixin Services PMI, March 43.0
Stocks. Daily history for Thursday, April 2, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -246.69 17818.72 -1.37
Hang Seng 194.27 23280.06 0.84
KOSPI 39.4 1724.86 2.34
ASX 200 -104.3 5154.3 -1.98
FTSE 100 25.65 5480.22 0.47
DAX 26.07 9570.82 0.27
CAC 40 13.72 4220.96 0.33
Dow Jones 469.93 21413.44 2.24
S&P 500 56.4 2526.9 2.28
NASDAQ Composite 126.73 7487.31 1.72
Australia: Retail Sales, M/M, February 0.5% (forecast 0.4%)
Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, April 2, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.60576 -0.15
EURJPY 117.055 -0.12
EURUSD 1.08514 -0.84
GBPJPY 133.701 0.78
GBPUSD 1.23934 0.06
NZDUSD 0.59126 0.06
USDCAD 1.41258 -0.4
USDCHF 0.97245 0.73
USDJPY 107.826 0.69


El concepto de mercado de divisas tiene varias definiciones:

  • el mercado de divisas es el área de las relaciones económicas que se manifiestan en la compraventa de valores de divisas (monedas extranjeras, títulos de valor en moneda extranjera), así como las transacciones relacionadas con la inversión de capital en moneda extranjera;
  • el mercado de divisas es un centro financiero donde se concentran las operaciones de compraventa de divisas basadas en la oferta y la demanda;
  • el mercado de divisas es un conjunto de bancos autorizados, empresas de inversión, casas de corretaje, bolsas de valores, bancos extranjeros que realizan transacciones monetarias;
  • el mercado de divisas es un conjunto de sistemas de comunicación que conectan a los bancos de diferentes países que realizan transacciones monetarias internacionales.

En términos simples, el mercado de divisas es un mercado en el que se realizan transacciones monetarias, es decir, se realiza el cambio de la moneda de un país a la moneda de otro país según un determinado tipo de cambio. El tipo de cambio es el precio relativo de las monedas de dos países o la moneda de un país expresada en unidades monetarias de otro país.

El mercado de divisas es parte del mercado financiero global, en el que se llevan a cabo muchas operaciones relacionadas con el movimiento de capitales a nivel mundial.

El mercado de divisas puede ser internacional o nacional.

El mercado de divisas nacional — es el mercado que funciona dentro de un país.

El mercado monetario internacional — es un mercado global que abarca los mercados de divisas de todos los países del mundo. No tiene una plataforma específica donde se realicen las licitaciones. Todas sus operaciones se llevan a cabo a través de un sistema de canales por cable y satélite que proporcionan la comunicación entre los mercados regionales de divisas a nivel mundial. Entre los mercados regionales actualmente se pueden distinguir los siguientes: Asiático (con centros en Tokio, Hong Kong, Singapur, Melbourne), Europeo (Londres, Fráncfort del Meno, Zurich), Estadounidense (Nueva York, Chicago, Los Ángeles).

Las licitaciones de divisas en el mercado internacional de divisas se realizan según los tipos de cambio del mercado, determinados en función de la oferta y la demanda en el mercado y bajo la influencia de diversos datos macroeconómicos. El mercado Forex es el mercado internacional de divisas.

Asimismo, los mercados de divisas se pueden dividir en bursátil y OTC (extrabursátil). El mercado de divisas bursátil es un mercado organizado donde las operaciones se realizan a través de la bolsa de valores, una empresa especial que establece las reglas de negociación y proporciona todas las condiciones para la organización de las licitaciones según dichas reglas.

El mercado OTC — es el mercado en el que no se establecen ciertas reglas de negociación y las operaciones de compraventa se llevan a cabo sin estar vinculadas a un lugar de negociación específico, como es el caso de la bolsa de valores.

Como norma general, el mercado OTC está organizado por empresas especiales que brindan servicios de compraventa de divisas, que pueden o no ser miembros de la bolsa de divisas. Actualmente las operaciones comerciales en este tipo de mercado se realizan en la mayoria de los casos a través de Internet.

En términos de volumen de comercio, el mercado OTC es muy superior al mercado bursátil. El mercado extrabursátil internacional de Forex se considera el más líquido del mundo. Funciona las 24 horas del día y en todos los centros financieros del mundo (desde Nueva York hasta Tokio).

El mercado de divisas — es la plataforma más importante para garantizar el curso normal de todos los procesos económicos mundiales.

Las principales funciones macroeconómicas del mercado de divisas son:

  • crear condiciones para que las entidades monetarias realicen pagos internacionales oportunos por las cuentas corrientes y de capital y, gracias a ello, contribuir al desarrollo del comercio exterior;
  • proporcionar condiciones y mecanismos para la implementación de la política monetaria y económica del estado;
  • diversificar la reserva de divisas;
  • formar el tipo de cambio bajo la influencia de la oferta y la demanda;

Las diferentes monedas son la herramienta principal de negociación en el mercado. Los tipos de cambio se forman en función de la oferta y la demanda en el mercado.

Pero además, los tipos de cambio están bajo la influencia de muchos factores fundamentales relacionados con la situación económica mundial, con los acontecimientos en las economías nacionales, con las decisiones políticas.

Varias fuentes ofrecen noticias relacionadas con estos factores:

  • Informes que muestran el nivel de desarrollo económico del estado.

Cuanto más estable es el desarrollo de la economía, más estable es su moneda. En consecuencia, según los datos estadísticos publicados en las fuentes oficiales de los países con cierta regularidad, es posible predecir cómo se comportará la moneda en un futuro próximo.
estos datos incluyen:

  • PIB
  • paro;
  • rentabilidad capital;
  • IPC;
  • índice de los precios industriales;
  • propensión al consumo;
  • salarios fuera de la agricultura;
  • construcción de viviendas etc.

Otro índice igual de importante es el nivel de las tasas de interés de las autoridades nacionales reguladoras de la política crediticia. En la Unión Europea es el BCE (European Central Bank) – Banco Central Europeo, en los Estados Unidos - Sistema de la Reserva Federal (FRS), en Japón - el Banco Central de Japón (Bank of Japan), en el Reino Unido – el Banco Central de Inglaterra (Bank of England), en Suiza - el Banco Nacional Suizo (Swiss National Bank) etc.

El nivel de las tasas de interés se determina en las reuniones del banco central nacional. A continuación, la decisión sobre la tasa se publica en las fuentes oficiales. Si el banco central del país reduce la tasa de interés, la oferta monetaria en el país aumenta y hay una depreciación de la moneda nacional en relación con otras monedas mundiales. Si la tasa de interés aumenta, se produce el fortalecimiento de la moneda nacional.

  • Discursos de líderes de países, destacados economistas y analistas.

Un discurso e incluso una declaración del líder del país puede fomentar seriamente una tendencia. Temas de discursos que pueden influir en el tipo de cambio:

  • análisis de la situación en el mercado de divisas;
  • cambios en la política monetaria o económica;
  • adopción de la política presupuestaria;
  • pronósticos de la situación económica, etc.

Todas estas noticias se publican en varias fuentes. Pero si resulta más o menos fácil de encontrar grandes noticias internacionales en ruso, pues las noticias relacionadas con la política económica interna y la economía de los países extranjeros son mucho menos comunes en la prensa rusa. La mayoría de estas noticias se publican en los medios nacionales de información y en el idioma del país donde ha salido la noticia.

Es muy dificil para una persona seguir todas las noticias al mismo tiempo y es muy probable perderse algún evento importante que pueda cambiar toda la situación en el mercado. Nosotros, guiados por nuestro principio básico - crear para nuestros clientes las mejores condiciones comerciales - tratamos de seleccionar las noticias más importantes de todo el mundo y publicarlas en nuestra página web.

El departamento de analítica de TeleTRADE monitorea diariamente las noticias de la mayoría de las fuentes de información nacionales e internacionales y destaca las que podrían afectar a los tipos de cambio. Son noticias importantes las que aparecen en nuestra sección de noticias.

Además, todos nuestros clientes tienen acceso gratuito a la sección de noticias Dow Jones. Este es un proyecto conjunto de la agencia de noticias más grande del mundo, Dow Jones Newswires y la principal agencia de noticias rusa Prime-TASS. La sección de noticias está creada especialmente para los traders y aquellos que están interesados en obtener información sobre los mercados mundiales de divisas.

©2000-2020. Todos los derechos reservados.

El sitio es administrado por Teletrade D.J. Limited 20599 IBC 2012 (First Floor, First St. Vincent Bank Ltd Building, James Street, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

La información presentada en el sitio, no es una base para tomar decisiones de inversión y es proporcionada sólo con fines informativos.

Resumen del sitio web AML

Advertencia de riesgo

La realización de operaciones comerciales en los mercados financieros con instrumentos financieros de margen, abre grandes oportunidades y permite a los inversores que estén dispuestos a correr riesgos a obtener altos rendimientos, pero al mismo tiempo conlleva un nivel de riesgo de pérdidas potencialmente alto. Por lo tanto, antes de comenzar a comercializar, se debe tomar de manera responsable a la cuestión de elegir la estrategia de inversión correspondiente, teniendo en cuenta los recursos disponibles.

Política de privacidad

}Uso de información: al usar completamente o parcialmente los materiales del sitio, el enlace a TeleTrade como fuente de información es obligatorio. El uso de materiales en Internet debe ir acompañado de un hipervínculo al sitio teletrade.mx. Importación automática de materiales e información del sitio está prohibida.

Para cualquier duda o pregunta, póngase en contacto con pr@teletrade.global.

Chat en linea Correo electrónico
Escoge tu idioma / localización