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21.10.2020
21:03
DJIA +0.19% 28,363.02 +54.23 Nasdaq +0.50% 11,574.56 +58.07 S&P +0.44% 3,458.27 +15.15
18:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 5,776.50 -112.72 -1.91% DAX 12,557.64 -179.31 -1.41% CAC 40 4,853.95 -75.33 -1.53%
17:03
Base Metals: Investor sentiment remains warry - ABN Amro

FXStreet notes that current trends in the base metals markets are complex and rely more on macro-economic developments rather than fundamental drivers. The economic recovery expected in the coming months is set to support a strengthening of the sector in 2021, according to strategists at ABN Amro. 

“Recent positive macro-economic trends in China and its massive infrastructure stimulus package underpins market sentiment. Chinese imports of metals has remained relatively strong, implying a high need for raw materials for its manufacturing sector.”

“The uncertainty over the ultimate economic impact of the second wave of coronavirus remains high. Next to that, there are no deficits in base metals markets anymore and inventories are relatively high. This also overhangs the base metals complex and increases price volatility.”  

“A further increase in this Chinese demand and solid macro-economic data going forward is likely to keep a floor under most base metals markets.”  

“For 2021, global economic growth will show a recovery from current lows and base metals prices will strengthen further on this. Prices will also find support the trend in the dollar. A weaker dollar during 2021 makes metals cheaper for non-dollar holders and supports prices.”

16:43
U.S. crude oil inventories drop roughly in line with forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 1.001 million barrels in the week ended October 16. Economists had forecast a drop of 1.021 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 1.895 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.829 million barrels. Distillate stocks tumbled by 3.832 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.743 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. plunged by 600,000 barrels a day to 9.900 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.1 million barrels per day last week, down by 167,000 barrels per day from the previous week. 

16:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, October -1.001 (forecast -1.021)
16:18
White House economic adviser Kudlow: Moving closer on stimulus deal
  • Says "optimistic morning" at White House on stimulus talks
  • Things are moving in "favourable direction"
16:05
Canada’s new housing prices increase more than anticipated in September

Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) surged 1.2 percent m-o-m in September, following a 0.5 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month. This was the largest monthly jump in home prices in 14 years.

Economists had forecast the NHPI to increase 0.5 percent m-o-m in September.

According to the report, new home prices rose in 24 out of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed in September, with Victoria (+2.5 percent m-o-m) and Hamilton (+2.3 percent m-o-m) recording the largest monthly gains, as both CMAs offer affordable and large properties relative to larger city centers and are becoming more attractive choices for potential homebuyers who are able to work from home.

On the contrary, Regina (-0.3 percent m-o-m) and Saskatoon (-0.2 percent m-o-m) were the only two CMAs with decreased new home prices in September.

In y-o-y terms, NHPI climbed 3.2 percent in September, following a 2.1 percent gain in the previous month. This was the largest y-o-y advance since January 2018.

15:52
Canada’s retail sales rise less than expected in August

Statistics Canada announced on Wednesday that the Canadian retail sales rose 0.4 percent m-o-m to CAD53.19 billion in August, following an unrevised 0.6 percent m-o-m increase in July.

Economists had forecast a 1.1 percent m-o-m advance for August.

According to the report, sales at gasoline stations (+1.2 percent m-o-m) rose for the fourth straight month in August, while sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers edged down (-0.1 percent m-o-m) following three consecutive monthly increases.

Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales grew 0.5 percent m-o-m in August compared to an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m drop in July and economists’ forecast for a 0.9 percent m-o-m gain. Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations, retail sales went up 0.4 percent m-o-m in August after decreasing 0.8 percent m-o-m in July, bolstered by higher sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+4.5 percent m-o-m) and food and beverage stores (+0.8 percent m-o-m).

In y-o-y terms, Canadian retail sales climbed 3.5 percent in August, following a revised 2.9 percent increase in July (originally a 2.7 percent rise).

15:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.18%, S&P -0.02%
15:29
Fed's Governor Brainard: Premature withdrawal of fiscal aid risks entrenching recessionary dynamics

  • Aside from virus, biggest downside risk is no fiscal support
  • U.S. recovery highly uneven and highly uncertain
  • Q3 GDP has likely recovered more than half of its H1 decline
  • Financing conditions favorable for large businesses, tight for small businesses
  • Labor market improvement rapid but uneven, easiest gains behind us
  • U.S. rates likely to stay below neutral for a period after liftoff
  • In the months ahead Fed to clarify how asset purchases to best work with forward guidance
  • Premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk allowing recessionary dynamics to become entrenched, holding back employment and spending, increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells, leading more businesses to shutter, and ultimately harming productive capacity

15:25
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.05%, NASDAQ futures +0.05%

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Wednesday, as investors continued to monitor talks on a new stimulus package in Washington.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

23,639.46

+72.42

+0.31%

Hang Seng

24,754.42

+184.88

+0.75%

Shanghai

3,325.02

-3.08

-0.09%

S&P/ASX

6,191.80

+7.20

+0.12%

FTSE

5,809.40

-79.82

-1.36%

CAC

4,882.83

-46.45

-0.94%

DAX

12,639.91

-97.04

-0.76%

Crude oil

$40.97


-1.75%

Gold

$1,928.00


0.66%

15:07
BoE's Deputy Governor Ramsden: Negative rates would be a particular concern for UK banking system

  • BoE committed not to tighten policy until we are confident that it is appropriate to do so
  • QE is BoE's marginal policy tool
  • BoE could push UK yields lower
  • While there might be appropriate time to use negative rates, that time is not right now
  • MPC's earlier statement that negative rates at this time could be less effective still applies
  • Burden of proof for any future tightening is high
  • Negative rates certainly in toolbox for potential use in future as assessment of effectiveness changes
  • Lower bound is likely to be different across different countries
  • In some countries lower bound could be positive

15:02
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

12.89

0.09(0.70%)

3722

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,219.00

1.99(0.06%)

28084

American Express Co

AXP

102.78

-0.36(-0.35%)

3011

Apple Inc.

AAPL

117.19

-0.32(-0.27%)

875784

AT&T Inc

T

26.84

0.08(0.30%)

149618

Boeing Co

BA

167

-0.24(-0.14%)

45769

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

169.1

0.11(0.07%)

1108

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

39.03

-0.17(-0.43%)

54798

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

43.62

0.10(0.23%)

56994

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

33.59

-0.11(-0.33%)

22286

Facebook, Inc.

FB

279.76

12.20(4.56%)

637728

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

287.99

0.59(0.20%)

4395

Ford Motor Co.

F

7.78

0.04(0.52%)

252488

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

17.84

0.23(1.31%)

43966

General Electric Co

GE

7.29

-0.05(-0.68%)

2002530

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

36.48

0.88(2.47%)

437786

Goldman Sachs

GS

208

-0.03(-0.01%)

8263

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,566.00

10.07(0.65%)

10816

Home Depot Inc

HD

286.25

0.21(0.07%)

465

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

172.61

-0.65(-0.38%)

381

Intel Corp

INTC

53.27

-0.16(-0.30%)

87092

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

117.41

0.04(0.03%)

33940

International Paper Company

IP

46.42

0.02(0.04%)

521

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

144.9

0.35(0.24%)

5255

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

100.53

0.16(0.16%)

51174

McDonald's Corp

MCD

226.99

-0.46(-0.20%)

33871

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

78.55

0.28(0.36%)

89728

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

214

-0.65(-0.30%)

163847

Nike

NKE

128.59

0.10(0.08%)

2683

Pfizer Inc

PFE

37.58

0.09(0.24%)

30300

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

142.5

0.02(0.01%)

3921

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

88.56

0.05(0.06%)

4415

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

421.22

-0.72(-0.17%)

305177

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

50.19

-0.06(-0.12%)

17698

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

48.93

2.58(5.57%)

302975

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

324.5

1.09(0.34%)

3662

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

57.75

0.50(0.87%)

173924

Visa

V

198.15

0.45(0.23%)

7318

Walt Disney Co

DIS

124.6

-0.35(-0.28%)

6212

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

55.56

-0.57(-1.02%)

27405

15:01
S&P 500 Index: Recent weakness to hold above the base at 3428/18 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that S&P 500 posted a relatively neutral session on Tuesday, completing an “inverted hammer” candlestick reversal, which reinforces the conviction that the “neckline” to its “head & shoulders” base and the 38.2% retracement of the recent recovery at 3428/18 will hold for a turn back higher, as per Credit Suisse.

“The S&P 500 posted a relatively neutral session on Tuesday, completing a potentially bullish ‘inverted hammer’ candlestick reversal above the “neckline” to its recently completed base at 3428/27 and the 38.2% retracement of the recent recovery at 3420/18. This reversal pattern reinforces our view that 3428/18 will provide a solid floor for the uptrend to resume.” 

“Resistance moves to 3477, above which would bullishly confirm yesterday’s session for strength back to 3516/18, then 3550, above which would trigger a move back to the 3588/94 high, which is also the upper end of its ‘typical’ extreme (15% above the 200-day average). Whilst this should clearly be respected, we look for a break in due course, with our ‘measured base objective’ at 3653.”

14:59
Canada’s annual inflation accelerates more than forecast in September

Statistics Canada announced on Wednesday the country’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1 percent m-o-m in September, the same pace as in the previous two months.

On the y-o-y basis, Canada’s inflation rate increased 0.5 percent last month, following a 0.1 percent advance in August.

Economists had predicted inflation would decrease 0.1 percent m-o-m but gain 0.4 percent y-o-y in September.

According to the report, price changes in transportation (+0.1 percent y-o-y compared to -1.3 percent y-o-y in August), recreation, education and reading (-1.2 percent y-o-y compared to -3.1 percent y-o-y), and shelter (+1.7 percent y-o-y compared to +1.5 percent y-o-y) components contributed the most to the September acceleration in the CPI. Meanwhile, the drop in gasoline prices (-10.7 percent y-o-y) in September was comparable to the August decrease (-11.1 percent y-o-y), while food price growth (+1.6 percent y-o-y) slowed slightly compared with last month (+1.8 percent y-o-y).

Overall, prices rose in six of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis in September.

The closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index rose 1.0 percent y-o-y in September after a 0.8 percent gain in August.

14:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index, YoY, September 3.2%
14:31
Canada: Retail Sales YoY, August 3.5%
14:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index, MoM, September 1.2% (forecast 0.5%)
14:31
Canada: Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y, September 1.0%
14:30
Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, August 0.4% (forecast 1.1%)
14:30
Canada: Consumer price index, y/y, September 0.5% (forecast 0.4%)
14:30
Canada: Consumer Price Index m / m, September -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)
14:30
Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, August 0.5% (forecast 0.9%)
14:15
Company News: Verizon (VZ) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimate

Verizon (VZ) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $1.25 per share (versus $1.25 per share in Q3 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.22 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $31.500 bln (-4.2% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $31.603 bln.

The company also issued raised guidance for FY 2020, projecting EPS of +0-2%, up from -2% to +2%, to $4.81-4.90 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.77.

VZ rose to $57.93 (+1.19%) in pre-market trading.

14:03
European session review: GBP strengthens, supported by upbeat comments on UK-EU trade deal by the block’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Output (MoM)September0.1%0.1%-0.1%
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Input (MoM)September-0.2%-0.4%1.1%
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Input (YoY) September-5.6%-5.5%-3.7%
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Output (YoY) September-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
06:00United KingdomRetail Price Index, m/mSeptember-0.3%0.4%0.3%
06:00United KingdomHICP ex EFAT, Y/YSeptember0.9% 1.3%
06:00United KingdomRetail prices, Y/YSeptember0.5%1.2%1.1%
06:00United KingdomPSNB, blnSeptember-30.1-33.6-36.1
06:00United KingdomHICP, m/mSeptember-0.4%0.5%0.4%
06:00United KingdomHICP, Y/YSeptember0.2%0.5%0.5%
07:30EurozoneECB President Lagarde Speaks    

GBP strengthened against its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday, supported by upbeat comments on the UK-EU trade deal by the block’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

While speaking to the European Parliament this morning, Barnier said that a trade deal with the UK “is within reach if both sides are willing to work constructively, if both sides are willing to compromise, and if we’re able to make progress in the next few days, on the basis of legal texts, and if we’re ready in the next few days to resolve the sticking points, the trickiest subjects”  He also pointed out that over the past few weeks progress had been made with on law enforcement cooperation, including protecting human rights, Europol, Eurojust, data protection and other areas and that “an outline is emerging for this deal on these points.” 

“Our door remains open - it will remain open right up until the last day where we can work together. We’re willing to do intense work, to intensify talks day and night if that’s what needed to reach a draft agreement that will leave enough time for democracy”, he concluded. 

In response to Barnier’s speech, the UK’s government said that they noted “with interest” his significant comments on the issues behind the current difficulties in talks and they are studying carefully what was said. They also promised that the UK’s chief negotiator David Frost will discuss the situation when he speaks to Michel Barnier later today.

Apart from Brexit-related headlines, investors also continued monitoring the coronavirus-related news as the UK is struggling to fight Covid-19 resurgence. UK prime minister Boris Johnson stated today that the government is pursuing a local and regional approach to restrictions, adding that he does think that national lockdown is not the right policy.

Market participants also received the UK’s inflation data for September. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the UK’s consumer price inflation accelerated to 0.5 percent y-o-y last month from a near five-year low of 0.2 percent y-o-y in August. That was in line with economists’ forecast. Nonetheless, inflation remained well below the BoE's 2-percent target.

13:21
UK's PM Johnson: Government pursuing a local and regional approach to restrictions
  • National lockdown is not the right policy
  • Areas with Tier 3 restrictions are already making progress
  • Tier 3 restrictions will be lifted if R rate falls below 1; but other factors are also taken into account, like hospital admissions
  • Tier 3 decisions will be reviewed every 28 days
13:10
U.S. weekly mortgage applications decrease 0.6 percent

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 0.6 percent in the week ended October 16, following a 0.7 percent decline in the previous week.

According to the report, refinance applications increased 0.2 percent, while applications to purchase a home declined 2.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate edged up to 3.02 percent from record-low 3.00 percent.

“Despite the uptick in rates, refinance activity held steady, with FHA refinance applications posting a 17.6% increase, helping to offset declines in the other loan types,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

12:58
Gold: More weakness in the near-term before soaring to $2,000 next year - ABN Amro

FXStreet notes that gold prices have struggled lately. A weaker dollar has supported the yellow metal somewhat but more investors have taken profit recently. Investors are now less convinced of another rise above $2,000 per ounce and are set to continue taking profits. However, economists at ABN Amro expect XAU/USD to race higher towards $2,100 in 2021. 

“The US elections are approaching and we think that it is likely that more investors will take profit in gold for two reasons: First, more uncertainty could result in a more risk-off behaviour and thus liquidating long gold positions. Second, expectations of higher economic growth if Biden wins could temporarily support the dollar. As a result, gold prices will probably decline.” 

“As the Fed will keep rates low for the coming years, US real yields will continue to be negative. This will support gold prices again in 2021.” 

“Next year, we expect gold prices to move towards $2,000 per ounce again.”

12:48
Company News: Snap (SNAP) posts surprise quarterly profit

Snap (SNAP) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $0.01 per share (versus -$0.04 per share in Q3 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of -$0.05 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $0.679 bln (+52.1% y/y), solidly beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.551 bln.

SNAP rose to $35.32 (+24.15%) in pre-market trading.

12:38
EUR/JPY maintains a mild downside bias while below 125.11 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that EUR/JPY moved sharply higher again on Tuesday, however, only a break above 125.11 would end the corrective risks for the core bull uptrend to resume, in the opinion of the Credit Suisse analyst team. Support stays at 123.03/01, then 122.38/23. 

“EUR/JPY rebounded further on Tuesday after essentially holding above the potential uptrend from May earlier in the week. We stay biased towards further ranging here with a mild downside bias whilst below 125.11.”

“An eventual break below the October low at 123.03/01 would reassert the correction and warn of a retest of the 122.38 late September low, then more likely we think key retracement supports seen at 122.27/23 – including the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from the May low – which we continue to look to remain a stronger floor. A break though would instead raise the prospect of a deeper setback to the ‘neckline’ to the June/July base at 121.35, with scope for the 200-day average at 121.10.” 

12:33
Company News: Netflix (NFLX) quarterly earnings miss analysts’ expectations

Netflix (NFLX) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $1.74 per share (versus $1.09 per share in Q3 FY 2019), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.14 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $6.436 bln (+22.7% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $6.381 bln. 

It also reported global streaming paid net adds of 2.20 mln versus its prior guidance of 2.50 mln and 10.09 mln in Q2 FY 2020.

The company issued mixed guidance for Q4 FY 2020, projecting EPS of $1.35 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.94 and revenues of $6.572 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $6.59 bln. It also guided Q4 FY 2020 global streaming net adds of 6.00 mln.

NFLX fell to $497.99 (-5.22%) in pre-market trading.

12:27
ECB’s vice president de Guindos: Early stimulus removal may harm recovery

  • Warns that debt build up a financial stability risk

12:23
UK PM Johnson’s spokesman confirms that UK's Frost and EU's Barnier will speak again later today

  • We note with interest that EU's negotiator Barnier, speaking to EP this morning, has commented in significant way on issues behind the current difficulties in our talks
  • We are studying carefully what was said

12:19
European Commission vice president Šefčovič: No fair deal on trade with UK without fair deal on fisheries

  • New agreement is not possible unless the last one is properly respected
  • Now is the time for responsibility

11:57
A ‘blue wave’ in U.S. elections could bring forward Fed rate hikes - Morgan Stanley

CNBC reports that according to Morgan Stanley portfolio manager a Democratic sweep in the coming U.S. elections will likely unleash more fiscal stimulus, but it could also cause the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates earlier than expected.

The first rate hike by the Fed could be brought forward from around 2024-2025 to 2023-2024 — depending on how other policies, such as taxation, turn out in the event of a “blue wave,” said Jim Caron, a senior member of Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s global fixed income team.

Caron said that the U.S. economy, under pressure from the coronavirus pandemic this year, was already expected to rebound in 2021. Additional stimulus that’s likely to come with a “blue wave” would boost that growth potential further, he added.

11:42
US Elections: Biden win to be positive for commodities – ABN Amro

FXStreet reports that according to the strategists at ABN Amro, the most likely outcome is that Biden wins the presidency and this result is set to benefit the commodity market.

“We expect that Democratic policies would probably result in a considerably stronger US economy in the coming years. This is positive for commodities in general overall, especially if Chinese growth is resilient.”  

“We also expect US real rates to remain negative or to decline further in 2021. This supports commodity prices due to the historical negative relationship between the two.”  

11:21
China will balance need for stabilising growth and preventing risks - central bank governor

Reuters reports that central bank governor Yi Gang said China will strike a balance between stabilising economic growth and preventing risks, even as debt was allowed to temporarily rise this year to support the coronavirus-hit economy.

Yi told that he expected China's macro leverage ratio to stabilise next year as the economy expands, after the debt gauge rose in 2020.

"Monetary policy needs to guard the 'gates' of money supply, and properly smooth out fluctuations in the macro leverage ratio, and keep it on a reasonable track in the long run," Yi said.

The Institute for International Finance (IIF) said in July that China's debt-to-GDP ratio was on track to hit 335%, from nearly 318% in the first quarter.

10:59
Gold to extend the consolidation phase ahead of new highs – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that gold consolidation extends, but with new highs eventually expected as the yellow metal holds the $1837 support, strategists at Credit Suisse apprise.

“Gold extends its consolidation/correction following the move to our base case objective of $2075/80 in August, but is still holding flagged support at $1837, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from March.” 

“We look for the $1837 support to continue to hold to maintain the sideways range ahead of a break above $1993 for a fresh look at $2075. An eventual move above here stays looked for a resumption of the core bull trend with resistance seen next at $2175, then $2300, although we continue to believe this will not be seen until next year.”

10:40
UK house price index rises more than forecast in August

According to the report from the UK Government, UK house prices increased by 2.5% in the year to August 2020, up from 2.1% in July 2020. Economists had expected a 2.4% increase. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.7% between July 2020 and August 2020, compared with a rise of 0.3% during the same period a year earlier (July 2019 and August 2019).

House price growth was strongest in England where prices increased by 2.8% in the year to August 2020. The highest annual growth within the English regions was in the East Midlands where average house prices grew by 3.6%. The lowest annual growth was in the North East, where prices increased by 0.2% in the year to August 2020.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) August 2020 UK Residential Market Survey results reveal that the sales market continues to show strong momentum, even if the longer term view remains cautious. National house price growth indicator hits a four-year high and most respondents foresee demand increasing for homes with gardens over the next two years.

10:21
EU's Barnier says trade deal with UK 'within reach'

Reuters reports that the European Union's Brexit negotiator said that a new trade deal with Britain was "within reach" if both sides work hard to overcome the sticking points in the coming days.

"An agreement is within reach if both sides are willing to work constructively, compromise and working to make progress on the basis of legal texts and if we are able in the coming days to resolve the sticking points," Michel Barnier said.

09:59
USD/CNH: Further pullbacks remain in the pipeline – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group remain bearish on USD/CNH but a drop to 6.6030 looks unlikely in the short-term.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘downward momentum in USD has improved further; next level to focus on is at 6.6450’. USD dropped to a low of 6.6563 during NY hours and closed on a soft note at 6.6647 (-0.21%). While we continue to expect further USD weakness, oversold shorter-term conditions suggest a slower pace of decline. A break of 6.6450 would not be surprising but the next major support at 6.6030 may not come into the picture so soon. Overall, USD is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 6.6980 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 6.7050 yesterday).”

09:40
British finance minister says of soaring borrowing: things could have been far worse

Reuters reports that after statistics showed state borrowing had soared while tax receipts had fallen, British finance minister Rishi Sunak said that things could have been far worse.

“Whilst it’s clear that the coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on our public finances, things would have been far worse had we not acted in the way we did to protect millions of livelihoods,” Sunak said.

“Over time and as the economy recovers, the government will take the necessary steps to ensure the long-term health of the public finances,” he said.

09:20
Asian session review: the US dollar declined against the euro and the yen

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Output (MoM)September0.1%0.1%-0.1%
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Input (MoM)September-0.2%-0.4%1.1%
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Input (YoY) September-5.6%-5.5%-3.7%
06:00United KingdomProducer Price Index - Output (YoY) September-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
06:00United KingdomRetail Price Index, m/mSeptember-0.3%0.4%0.3%
06:00United KingdomHICP ex EFAT, Y/YSeptember0.9% 0.6%
06:00United KingdomRetail prices, Y/YSeptember0.5%1.2%1.1%
06:00United KingdomPSNB, blnSeptember-30.1-33.6-36.1
06:00United KingdomHICP, m/mSeptember-0.4%0.5%0.4%
06:00United KingdomHICP, Y/YSeptember0.2%0.5%0.5%


During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined against the euro and the yen, while the yuan rose against the dollar to the highest in more than 2 years.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (Euro, Swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish Krona), fell by 0.28%.

Investors continue to follow the news about the package of new economic incentives in the United States. Speaker of The House of representatives Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday announced progress in negotiations with the White house.

The focus was also on UK data. Consumer prices in the UK in September 2020 increased by 0.5% compared to the same month last year, the Office for National Statistics reported. Thus, inflation accelerated compared to August's 0.2%. Analysts on average also expected prices to rise by 0.5% year-on-year.

09:00
US dollar’s safe-haven currency function is now markedly weakened – Natixis

FXStreet reports that analysts at Natixis seek to determine whether the USD still plays this safe-haven currency role when risk aversion is high nowadays, and what factors could have changed this role. 

“When risk aversion has become high, the dollar has traditionally played a safe-haven currency role, appreciating against the euro. A rise in risk aversion (1998, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, 2018-19) has led to an appreciation of the dollar against the euro. The dollar’s safe-haven role stems from the fact that when risk aversion is high (2008, 2012, 2014, 2018-19): Capital flows to the US from OECD countries, particularly from the Eurozone; but capital also flows to the US (the dollar) from emerging countries due to capital outflows.”

“The COVID-19 crisis has not given rise to a lasting appreciation of the dollar against the euro. This can be explained by: An economic reason, concern about the rising US external debt; a political reason, the end of dollar purchases by many countries (China, Russia, OPEC).”

08:45
EU ready to approve new measures for economies if necessary - European Commission Vice-President

Reuters reports that European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said that the European Union will be ready to approve new measures to support its member states should the economies suffer further after a new surge in COVID-19 cases.

"We will certainly keep monitoring the situation closely and we are ready to react with new proposals, if necessary," Dombrovskis told when asked whether there would be a new Recovery Fund.

Dombrovskis added that a new wave of coronavirus infections would "certainly have an effect" on the Commission's upcoming autumn economic forecasts.

08:30
GBP/USD: 1.2860 should provide solid support - TD

eFXdata reports that TD Research discusses GBP outlook.

"For now, we think that 1.2860/65 should provide solid support in cable. The next major reassessment point to the upside does not come in until last week’s high at 1.3083, suggesting we have plenty of room to extend higher — as long as sentiment remains firm."

"We note, however, that with the final days running down to a whole host of top-tier risk events and still a lot at stake, we are in a particularly mercurial and capricious time right now. This suggests the potential for sharp reversals and abrupt swings in the market’s mood are higher than usual," TD adds. 

08:17
UK consumer price growth accelerated in September

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 0.5% in September 2020, up from 0.2% in August.  

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 0.7% in September 2020, up from 0.5% in August 2020.

The largest contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate in September 2020 came from recreation and culture (0.31 percentage points).

Transport costs, and restaurant and café prices, following the end of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, made the largest upward contributions (of 0.23 and 0.21 percentage points, respectively) to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate between August and September 2020.

This was partially offset by smaller downward contributions from furniture, household equipment and maintenance; games, toys and hobbies; and food and non-alcoholic beverages.

08:14
Options levels on wednesday, October 21, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1928 (3359)

$1.1904 (4047)

$1.1885 (484)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1845

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1762 (1050)

$1.1736 (975)

$1.1705 (1545)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 54721 contracts (according to data from October, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4047);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3107 (2632)

$1.3058 (266)

$1.3022 (1681)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2983

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2923 (460)

$1.2905 (826)

$1.2878 (325)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 6 is 32360 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3950 (3784);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 25436 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2050 (2391);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.79 versus 0.75 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 20

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

08:05
United Kingdom: Retail Price Index, m/m, September 0.3% (forecast 0.4%)
08:04
United Kingdom: HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y, September 0.6%
08:04
United Kingdom: Retail prices, Y/Y, September 1.1% (forecast 1.2%)
08:03
United Kingdom: HICP, m/m, September 0.4% (forecast 0.5%)
08:02
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), September 1.1% (forecast -0.4%)
08:02
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , September -3.7% (forecast -5.5%)
08:02
United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, September -36.1 (forecast -33.6)
08:01
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), September -0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
08:01
United Kingdom: HICP, Y/Y, September 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)
08:01
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) , September -0.9% (forecast -0.9%)
04:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 42.58 0.59
Silver 24.63 1.23
Gold 1907.354 0.21
Palladium 2399.67 2.54
02:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -104.09 23567.04 -0.44
Hang Seng 27.28 24569.54 0.11
KOSPI 11.67 2358.41 0.5
ASX 200 -44.8 6184.6 -0.72
FTSE 100 4.57 5889.22 0.08
DAX -117.71 12736.95 -0.92
CAC 40 0.01 4929.28 0
Dow Jones 113.37 28308.79 0.4
S&P 500 16.2 3443.12 0.47
NASDAQ Composite 37.61 11516.49 0.33
02:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September 0.0% 0.1%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September -0.4% -0.4%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September -5.8% -5.5%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September -0.9% -0.9%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September -0.3% 0.4%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom PSNB, bln September -35.9 -34
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September 0.9%  
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September 0.5% 1.2%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom HICP, m/m September -0.4% 0.5%
06:00 (GMT) United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September 0.2% 0.5%
07:30 (GMT) Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks    
10:00 (GMT) United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance October -48  
12:10 (GMT) United Kingdom MPC Member Ramsden Speaks    
12:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales YoY August 2.7%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales, m/m August 0.6% 1.1%
12:30 (GMT) Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM September 0.5% 0.5%
12:30 (GMT) Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY September 2.1%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m August -0.4% 0.9%
12:30 (GMT) Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y September 0.8%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Consumer Price Index m / m September -0.1% -0.1%
12:30 (GMT) Canada Consumer price index, y/y September 0.1% 0.4%
12:50 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks    
14:00 (GMT) U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks    
14:30 (GMT) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories October -3.818 -0.24
18:00 (GMT) U.S. Fed's Beige Book    
21:45 (GMT) New Zealand Trade Balance, mln September -353  
22:30 (GMT) Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
02:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.7046 -0.24
EURJPY 124.67 0.5
EURUSD 1.18219 0.47
GBPJPY 136.442 0.02
GBPUSD 1.29401 0.01
NZDUSD 0.65759 -0.4
USDCAD 1.31262 -0.46
USDCHF 0.90638 -0.39
USDJPY 105.452 0.03

NOTICIAS DEL MERCADO DE DIVISAS

DEFINICIÓN DEL MERCADO DE DIVISAS
El concepto de mercado de divisas tiene varias definiciones:

  • Mercado de divisas, es el área de relaciones económicas, que se manifiestan en la compraventa de valores de divisas (monedas extranjeras, títulos de valor en moneda extranjera), así como operaciones, relacionadas con la inversión de capital en divisa extranjera;
  • Mercado de divisas, es un centro financiero, donde se concentran operaciones de compraventa de divisas, basadas en la oferta y la demanda;
  • Mercado de divisas, es un conjunto de bancos autorizados, compañías de inversión, casas de brokers, bolsas de valores, bancos extranjeros, que realizan operaciones en divisas;
  • Mercado de divisas, es un conjunto de sistemas de comunicación, que conectan entre sí a los bancos de diferentes países, que realizan operaciones internacionales en divisas.

En términos simples, el mercado de divisas, es un mercado en el que se realizan transacciones en divisas, es decir, se realiza cambio de divisa de un país a divisa de otro país, según un tipo de cambio determinado. Tipo de cambio, es un precio relativo de divisas de dos países o la divisa de un país, expresada en unidades monetarias de otro país.

Mercado de divisas, es parte del mercado financiero global, en el que se realizan muchas operaciones, relacionadas con el movimiento de capitales a nivel mundial.

TIPOS DE MERCADOS. MERCADO DE DIVISAS MEXICANO E INTERNACIONAL.
Mercado de divisas puede ser internacional o nacional.

Mercado de divisas nacional, es el mercado que funciona dentro de un país.

Mercado de divisas internacional, es un mercado global, que abarca los mercados de divisas de todos los países del mundo. No tiene una plataforma específica, donde se realice el comercio. Todas las operaciones se llevan a cabo a través de un sistema de canales de cable y de satélite, que proporcionan la comunicación entre los mercados regionales de divisas a nivel mundial. Entre los mercados regionales actualmente, hoy en dia se puede distinguir los siguientes: asiático (con centros en Tokio, Hong Kong, Singapur, Melbourne), europeo (Londres, Fráncfort del Meno, Zurich), estadounidense (Nueva York, Chicago, Los Ángeles).

Comercio de divisas en el mercado internacional de divisas se realice según los tipos de cambio del mercado, determinados en función de la oferta y la demanda en el mercado y bajo la influencia de diversos datos macroeconómicos. El mercado internacional de divisas, es el mercado Forex.

Mercados de divisas se puede dividir en bursátiles y extrabursátiles. Mercado de divisas bursátil, es un mercado organizado, donde el comercio se realice a través de la bolsa de valores, una empresa especial que establece las reglas de comercio y proporciona todas las condiciones para organizar comercio según dichas reglas.

Mercado extrabursátil, es el mercado en el que no se establecen ciertas reglas de comercio, y operaciones de compraventa se llevan a cabo sin estar vinculadas a un lugar de comercio específico, como es el caso con la bolsa de valores.

Como norma general, el mercado extrabursátil se organice por empresas especiales, que brindan servicios de compraventa de divisas, que pueden ser o no ser miembros de la bolsa de divisas. Actualmente, las operaciones comerciales en este mercado se realizan principalmente a través de Internet.

En términos de volumen de comercio, el mercado extrabursátil es muy superior al mercado bursátil. El mercado extrabursátil internacional de divisas Forex, se considera el más líquido del mundo. Funciona las 24 horas del día en todos los centros financieros del mundo (desde Nueva York hasta Tokio).

FUNCIONES DEL MERCADO DE DIVISAS
El mercado de divisas, es la plataforma más importante para proporcionar el curso normal de todos los procesos económicos mundiales.

Las principales funciones macroeconómicas del mercado de divisas son:

  • crear condiciones para que entidades de relaciones monetarias realicen pagos internacionales oportunos según los cálculos corrientes y de capital y, gracias a ello, contribuir al desarrollo del comercio exterior;
  • proporcionar condiciones y mecanismos para realizar la política monetaria y económica del estado;
  • diversificar reservas de divisas;
  • formar el tipo de cambio bajo la influencia de la oferta y la demanda;

IMPACTO DE NOTICIAS
Diferentes divisas, son la herramienta principal del comercio en el mercado de divisas. Tipos de cambio se forman bajo la influencia de la oferta y la demanda en el mercado.

Además, los tipos de cambio están bajo la influencia de muchos factores fundamentales, relacionados con la situación económica mundial, con eventos en las economías nacionales, con las decisiones políticas.

Noticias sobre estos factores se puede conocer de diversas fuentes:

  • Informes, que muestren el nivel de desarrollo económico del país.

Cuanto más estable es el desarrollo de economía, más estable es su divisa. En consecuencia, según los datos estadísticos publicados en las fuentes oficiales de los países con cierta regularidad, se puede predecir cómo se comportará la divisa en un futuro cercano.
Estos datos incluyen:

  • PIB;
  • desempleo;
  • rentabilidad financiera;
  • índice de precios al consumidor;
  • índice de precios industriales;
  • propensión al consumo;
  • salarios fuera del sector agrícolo;
  • construcción de viviendas etc.

Otro índice igual de importante, es el nivel de tasas de interés de las autoridades nacionales reguladoras de la política crediticia. En la Unión Europea, es el Banco Central Europeo (European Central Bank), en los Estados Unidos es el Sistema de la Reserva Federal (FRS), en Japón es el Banco Central de Japón (Bank of Japan), en el Reino Unido es el Banco Central de Inglaterra (Bank of England), en Suiza es el Banco Nacional Suizo (Swiss National Bank) etc.

Nivel de las tasas de interés se determinan en reuniones del banco central nacional. Luego, la decisión sobre la tasa se publica en las fuentes oficiales. Si el banco central del país reduzca la tasa de interés, la oferta monetaria en el país crece y hay una depreciación de la moneda nacional en relación con otras divisas mundiales. Si la tasa de interés aumenta, hay un fortalecimiento de la moneda nacional.

  • Discursos de líderes de países, economistas y analistas destacados.

Un discurso e incluso una declaración del líder del país puede revertir seriamente una tendencia. Temas de discursos, que puedan influir en el tipo de cambio:

  • análisis de la situación en el mercado de divisas;
  • cambios en la política monetaria o económica;
  • aprobación de la política presupuestaria;
  • pronósticos de la situación económica, etc.

Todas estas noticias se publiquen en diversas fuentes. Es más o menos fácil de encontrar grandes noticias internacionales en español, pero las noticias relacionadas con la política económica interna y la economía de los países extranjeros, son mucho menos comunes en la prensa. La mayoría de estas noticias se publiquen en los medios nacionales de información y en el idioma de país, donde ha salido la noticia.

Todas estas noticias se publiquen en diversas fuentes. Es más o menos fácil de encontrar grandes noticias internacionales en español,pero las noticias relacionadas con la política económica interna y la economía de los países extranjeros, son mucho menos comunes en la prensa. La mayoría de estas noticias se publiquen en los medios nacionales de información y en el idioma de país, donde ha salido la noticia.

El departamento de analítica de TeleTrade, diariamente monitorea noticias de la mayoría de las fuentes de información nacionales e internacionales, y destaca las que potencialmente podrían afectar a los tipos de cambio. Precisamente estas noticias principales, las que aparezcan en nuestra sección de noticias.

Además, todos nuestros clientes tienen acceso gratuito a la sección de noticias de Dow Jones.. Es un proyecto conjunto de la agencia de noticias más grande del mundo Dow Jones Newswires, y la principal agencia de información rusa Prime-TASS. La sección de noticias es creada especialmente para los traders de divisas y aquellos, que están interesados en obtener información sobre los mercados de divisas mundiales.

©2000-2020. Todos los derechos reservados.

El sitio es administrado por Teletrade D.J. Limited 20599 IBC 2012 (First Floor, First St. Vincent Bank Ltd Building, James Street, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

La información presentada en el sitio, no es una base para tomar decisiones de inversión y es proporcionada sólo con fines informativos.

Resumen del sitio web AML

Advertencia de riesgo

La realización de operaciones comerciales en los mercados financieros con instrumentos financieros de margen, abre grandes oportunidades y permite a los inversores que estén dispuestos a correr riesgos a obtener altos rendimientos, pero al mismo tiempo conlleva un nivel de riesgo de pérdidas potencialmente alto. Por lo tanto, antes de comenzar a comercializar, se debe tomar de manera responsable a la cuestión de elegir la estrategia de inversión correspondiente, teniendo en cuenta los recursos disponibles.

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