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The Norwegian Krone (NOK) has weakened slightly since the start of the year. Economists at Nordea analyze EUR/NOK outlook.
We believe that EUR/NOK will trade broadly sideways around 11.50 until the summer, but that does not mean it will move along a straight line.
When rates abroad are lowered during the second half of 2024, we see NOK faring better and expect EUR/NOK to trade around 11.25 by the end of 2024.
Looking at technical levels, we see that 11.20 area has been a solid bottom for EUR/NOK while the area around 12.00 has been a ceiling EUR/NOK rarely has been over.
Economists at Danske Bank expect relative rates to be positive for EUR/NOK in the coming quarters.
NOK has been off to a poor start this year and we expect this to continue in the months ahead.
We regard relative rates to be a positive for EUR/NOK in 2024 and given our call for below-trend-growth globally and that markets should price in tighter global monetary conditions that rarely pose an environment in which EUR/NOK declines.
In the near term, we will closely monitor developments in global manufacturing but in the absence of a sharp growth acceleration combined with further global disinflation we still think the balance of risk favours a higher EUR/NOK in the coming 3-12M.
We think NOK is fundamentally undervalued but we do not see the trigger for a sustainable turnaround in the next 12M.
Economists at Nordea analyze Norwegian Krone’s (NOK) outlook for the months to come.
Norges Bank is highly unlikely to start cutting rates before the Fed and ECB. With small shifts in interest rates toward the summer, we see EUR/NOK rangebound in the 11.20-11.50 area.
When rates abroad are lowered during the second half of 2024, we see NOK faring better and expect EUR/NOK to reach 11.00 by the end of 2024.
Norges Bank announces its rate decision today. Economists at ING analyze EUR/NOK ahead of the policy meeting.
The policy rate was hiked to 4.50% in December – so it would seem far too soon for Norges Bank to embrace any idea of easing. However, the Norwegian Krone has been suffering a little this year as the backup in market interest rates has hit the risk environment.
In all, we suspect EUR/NOK needs to trade a little longer in this 11.35-11.45 range.
EUR/NOK continues to trade around the 11.30 mark. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, analyzes Krone’s outlook.
The upcoming figures on economic activity and inflation will be crucial. As long as the economy is robust and inflation remains high, Norges Bank is unlikely to consider cutting rates.
The big question for the market will be which central bank – the ECB or Norges Bank – might cut rates first and to what extent. Overall, however, Norges Bank has shown, most recently in December in impressive fashion, that it is taking decisive action against the threat of inflation, which has catapulted the krone upwards accordingly. I am therefore comfortable with my forecast of further moderate Krone appreciation in 2024 and 2025.
After a poor performance last year for the currency, the Norges Bank will likely be satisfied that the NOK appreciated vs. the EUR following its decision to hike rates by 25 bps to 4.5% on December 13. Economists at Rabobank analyze Krone’s outlook.
Given its focus on the exchange rate, we would expect the Norges Bank to follow the ECB in cutting rates this year. That said, the combination of the decline in core inflation and the stronger value of the NOK in recent weeks has allowed the market to re-price the start of the Norges Bank rate cutting schedule.
Last month the Norges Bank indicated that the policy rate would remain at 4.5% until the autumn before gradually moving lower. Currently, the market is priced for rates around 35 bps lower on a six-month view. We see this as overdone and look for the NOK to find some support as the market adjusts to a more cautious Norges Bank.
We expect EUR/NOK to edge lower to 11.20 on a three-month view.
The Norwegian Krone has started the European FX session a touch weaker. Economists at Société Générale analyze EUR/NOK outlook.
EUR/NOK carved out a lower high near 12.00 as compared to the one in May 2023 near 12.10 and has embarked on a series of falling tops and bottoms. It has stabilized below the 200-DMA denoting regain of downward momentum. It would be interesting to see if the pair can reclaim the Day Moving Average near 11.56/11.59.
Inability to cross this hurdle would mean persistence in down move towards 11.10 and projections of 10.99; this could be a crucial support.
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