CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Swiss Franc (EURCHF)

• EUR/CHF has reversed its intermediate-term downtrend and is rallying strongly.
• There are few technical obstacles in the way until the pair reaches parity. 
• EUR/CHF is oversold according to the RSI which suggests the risk of a pullback.  

EUR/CHF is trading at 0.9847 as it rallies higher, extending an uptrend on both a short and intermediate time frame. The road is open and parity is in sight. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: Daily chart

The pair has broken above all major moving averages and a major trendline for the downtrend, suggesting the bear trend has been broken. 

EUR/CHF has formed more that two higher highs and higher lows since reversing at the January lows, establishing a rising pattern of peaks and troughs. Overall this is a sign it is in a young uptrend on the daily chart, commonly used to assess the intermediate-term trend (lasting 3-6 months). 

Given the old adage that “the trend is your friend until the bend at the end,” EUR/CHF is expected to continue its new uptrend higher. 

The next key resistance level is at around parity suggesting the pair could rally up to that level without much obstruction. 

The red 50-day (Simple Moving Average) has crossed above the 100-day SMA which is a bullish signal. It has also just crossed above the 200-day SMA. However, in the case of the 200, the longer MA was still falling marginally during the crossover, watering down its reliability – disqualifying it by a hair’s breadth from being a Golden Cross. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the overbought zone above 70 suggesting there is a risk of a pullback. If it crosses back down below 70 it will give a sell signal and more strongly indicate a correction is underway. This, however, would not be enough to reverse the uptrend, merely suggest a pullback was underway. 

With the RSI over 70 traders are recommended not to open any fresh long positions. 

The long-term trend, seen on the weekly chart, is still undecided. Although price has reversed and punched higher it is unclear what the trend is, although the strength of the recovery suggests it may soon confirm an uptrending bias.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) was dealt a blow on Thursday as the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bps.  Economists at ING analyze CHF outlook.

SNB cut paves the way for more CHF weakness

EUR/CHF is flying high at 0.9660. Economists at ING analyze the Swiss Franc (CHF) outlook ahead of the SNB meeting on Thursday.

EUR/USD could come lower on a major European central bank cutting rates

• EUR/CHF makes new year-to-date highs in 0.9630s. 
• Short and intermediate trends are bullish – long-term still bearish. 
• MACD is diverging bearishly, however, and triangles are bad omens.
   

EUR/CHF is trading higher at the start of the new week, exchanging hands in the 0.9630s, after achieving new year-to-date (YTD) highs. The pair is in an uptrend both on the short and intermediate time frame as the peaks and troughs continue rising. Given the old adage that “the trend is your friend” the progression higher is tipped to continue. 

The EUR/CHF pair has broken out of the Symmetrical Triangle price pattern it formed last week and is close to reaching the minimum price objective for the breakout at 0.9648 – the 0.618 Fibonnaci ratio of the height of the triangle extrapolated from the breakout point higher. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: 4-hour chart

It is possible the price could also rise up to the 100% extension of the height of the triangle at 0.9680. Once met, however, there is a risk the pair could correct more substantially or even reverse as often triangles mark the penultimate moves in trends. 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is showing bearish divergence with price on the 4-hour chart. Whilst price reached a higher high (for the year) on Monday at 0.9638, the MACD failed to make a corresponding higher high. This suggests underlying weakness and the possibility the price may pullback, although so far there has been no reaction. 

The MACD on the daily chart crossed below its signal line last week giving a sell signal, although price continued rising. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: Daily chart

The pair has provisionally broken above the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.9600. The SMA has acted as a dynamic resistance level repelling price repeatedly during its bear trend since 2021. Overall EUR/CHf remains in a long-term bear trend and would need to break above the 0.9685 November 2023 high to suggest reversal. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: Weekly chart

Multiple touches indicates it is a significant barrier. If the break holds for another week that would strengthen the bullish case and suggest a major obstacle was in the rear view mirror. Currently it is too early to say whether this is the case. 

Overall EUR/CHF remains in a long-term bear trend and would need to break above the 0.9685 November 2023 high to suggest reversal. 
 

Economists at ING analyze EUR/CHF outlook ahead of the SNB decision on Thursday.

SNB to stay on hold

• EUR/CHF touches 50-week SMA and recoils
• RSI on daily chart indicates possibility of a pullback. 
• Symmetrical Triangle has formed on 4-hour chart with breakout likely. 

EUR/CHF has rebounded from the 0.9254 December 2023 lows and rallied up to resistance from a key barrier in the form of the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair is probably still in a long-term downtrend despite recent strength. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: Weekly chart

The price has respected the red 50-week SMA on the multiple prior occasions it touched it during its downtrend. This reinforces the level’s strength as a resistance point. It probably indicates the price is about to pullback. There is a good chance it could correct back to the level of the trendline at around 0.9500 for a retest.  

The pair is converging with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), a momentum study. This is a bullish sign. The most recent peak in price was accompanied by a relatively higher peak in RSI when compared to the previous peak in price (circled). This is convergence and suggests underlying strength. 

A further bullish sign is that the pair has broken above the trendline. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: Daily chart

EUR/CHF has just exited overbought extremes on the RSI on the daily chart. This is interpreted as a signal to sell long positions and open short positions. It suggests the pair could pullback down, at least to the level of the trendline at about 0.9500. 

The pair has broken above all the key Moving Averages and the 200-day SMA is acting support. EUR/CHF has also moved above the previous higher low of the downtrend. These are both signs indicating that it is probably in a bullish intermediate trend, favoring bulls on that time horizon. 

Euro to Swiss Franc: 4-hour chart

EUR/CHF has formed a Symmetrical Triangle on the 4-hour chart suggesting indecision. The pattern has equal chances of it breaking out in either direction, however, some analysts hold that the odds slightly favor a breakout in the direction of the trend prior to the formation of the triangle, which in this case is bullish. 

Should price breakout higher it will probably not rise very much higher before capitulating since triangles are usually the penultimate moves in trends.

The RSI has declined visibly during the formation of the triangle, however, suggesting underlying weakness and a chance price could break lower. 

The 4-hour chart is used to assess the short-term trend. The series of rising peaks and troughs since the December 2023 lows indicates the pair is in a short-term uptrend.

In 2023, the Swiss Franc (CHF) was the best performing G10 currency. Last year’s strong performance culminated in EUR/CHF reaching a record low in December. Since then, EUR/CHF has moved lower. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.

EUR/CHF forecasts revised up 

EUR/CHF trades over 0.9600. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Discussion about SNB Jordan’s successor will have little impact on the Franc

Economists at Société Générale note that the EUR/CHF pair retains bullish momentum after Swiss inflation data came below forecast.

Last week’s low of 0.9500/0.9470 is an important support near term

EUR/CHF is just below 0.9600 after the release of Swiss inflation data. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Ongoing disinflation continues to suggest the new SNB President may stay clear of more CHF-supporting measures

EUR/CHF moves one step closer to 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) of 0.9569. Economists at Société Générale analyze Euro’s outlook. 

EUR/USD: Further gains could be in the offing into month-end

• EUR/CHF up over 3% from December’s lows.
• ECB President Lagarde looks ahead to growth rebound.
• Swiss Franc is broadly weaker across the majors market.

EUR/CHF knocked into fresh multi-month highs on Monday as the pair steps into a ten-week peak above 0.9550. The Swiss Franc (CHF) has depreciated notably against the majority of its major currency peers in 2024, and is down 2.88% YTD against the Euro (EUR).

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hit the newswires on Monday while speaking about the ECB’s latest Annual Report in Strasbourg. The ECB head noted that the ECB expects inflation to continue slowing as the upward momentum from past shocks fade. It has been almost three straight years since the start of inflation the ECB initially called ‘transitory’. European inflation is not projected to decline below the ECB’s upper target of 2% until sometime in 2025.

ECB President Lagarde: Restrictive policy stance acts as a safeguard against wage-price spiral

Germany’s Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for March is due early Tuesday and is forecast to improve slightly, expected to print at -29.0 versus the previous -29.7. Switzerland’s ZEW Survey of Expectations for February is due Wednesday, which last printed at -19.5. Thursday brings both German Retail Sales for January and Switzerland’s fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print, which is forecast to ease slightly to 0.2% QoQ compared to the previous quarter’s 0.3%.

EUR/CHF technical outlook

EUR/CHF has been on a firm bullish push lately, with the pair set to close in the green on Monday and chalk up another bullish candle, with 15 of the last 17 consecutive trading days closing flat or higher.

With the pair cracking December’s high at 0.9545, the next immediate target for EUR/CHF bidders will be November’s swing high of 0.9685.

EUR/CHF hourly chart

EUR/CHF daily chart

EUR/CHF has moved back above the 0.9500 level. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Euro Area growth to stabilise in the second half of the year

EUR/CHF +0.5% after weak Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.

Weak CPI opens door to March SNB cut

The Swiss Franc (CHF)proved the major G10 outperformer in 2023. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets analyze EUR/CHF outlook for the coming months.

Graduated weakening in the CHF

EUR/CUF reached a record low at the end of 2023. Since then, the pair has drifted modestly higher. Economists at Rabobank analyze EUR/CHF outlook.

Swissie can be particularly sensitive to headwinds in the Eurozone

EUR/CHF reached the lowest level since 2015 by the end of December, breaching below the 0.9300 mark. Economists at Danske Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

SNB to deliver its first 25 bps cut in June