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Quotes and rates for precious metals Silver vs US Dollar (XAGUSD)

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  • 23.01.2024 08:43
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD moves away from over two-month low, not out of the woods yet
    • Silver stages a goodish recovery from over a two-month low touched on Monday.
    • The setup favours bears and supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling.
    • A sustained strength beyond the $23.00 mark is needed to negate the negative bias.

    Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to sub-$22.00 levels, or its lowest level since November 13 touched the previous day. The white metal sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the $22.30-$22.35 region, up over 1% for the day.

    From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance, which coincided with a downward sloping trend-line extending from the December swing high, favours bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside.

    Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the $22.70-$22.75 region. This is followed by the $23.00 round-figure mark, which should now act as a pivotal point. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD beyond the $23.20-$23.25 intermediate hurdle, towards retesting the 200-day SMA barrier, currently pegged near mid-$23.00s.

    Some follow-through buying will suggest that the white metal has formed a near-term bottom and shift the bias in favour of bullish traders. The subsequent move up might then allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $24.00 round figure and climb further towards the next relevant resistance around the $24.40-$24.50 region.

    On the flip side, bearish traders need to wait for acceptance below the $22.00 mark. The XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable to test the $21.40-$21.35 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $21.00 round figure. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the October monthly swing low, around the $20.70-$20.65 region.

    Silver daily chart

    fxsoriginal

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 22.01.2024 19:03
    XAG/USD Price Analysis: Bears advance as markets adjusts dovish bets on the Fed
    • The XAG/USD declined to its lowest level since mid-November near $22.20.
    • Markets are repricing their bets on the Fed, and the odds of cuts in March decline.
    • Despite recovery signals from four-hour chart indicators, the prevailing bearish trend keeps the bulls at bay with the pair positioned under key SMAs.

    In Monday's session, the XAG/USD pair is trading at $22.14, showcasing 2% decline, following to multi-month lows. The daily chart paints a largely bearish picture, with selling pressure beginning to assert dominance. The 4-hour technical outlook indicates a recovery from oversold conditions, offering a glimmer of respite in an otherwise downwardly skewed market.

    In the meantime, markets are making some adjustments in easing expectations and now, the swaps market is pricing in 125 bp of easing over the course of 2024 vs. nearly 175 bp seen earlier this month while the odds of a cut in March dropped below 50%. However, this seems highly unlikely considering the strength of the US economy. Important upcoming events include key central bank meetings this week and an official Q4 GDP data to be reported on Thursday alongside, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, from the last month of 2023. The outcome of this data may shape the expectations from the markets and set the precious metal’s pace for the next sessions.

    XAG/USD levels to watch

    Analyzing daily chart movements, the technical situation reveals dominance of selling momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is descending and in a downtrend, signaling an intensification of bearish momentum. Consistent with this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) red bars are on the rise, which also suggests strengthening of bearish momentum. In addition, the pair is trading beneath their 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which confirms that the bears are in control on a broader spectrum, further reinforcing the notion of enhanced bearish momentum.

    Moving to the shorter time frame, the four-hour chart suggest thatindicators are correcting oversold conditions, showing some respite for the buyers. Yet, the bearish momentum is too dominant to dismiss. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to descend in the negative territory, lending weight to the bearish bias. In conjection, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflects rising red bars, yet again indicating increased seller influence.

    XAG/USD daily chart

     

  • 22.01.2024 14:29
    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plunges to near $22 as Fed rate-cut optimism fades
    • Silver price plummets to near $22 as the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates from May.
    • The USD Index struggles for a firm-footing despite easing Fed rate-cut bets.
    • Silver price declines further towards $21.88.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) nosedived to near $22.00 on Monday, more than 2.5% down from its previous close. The white metal is heavily dumped by the market participants as trades dialled back expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    The S&P500 is expected to open on a positive note, considering positive cues from the overnight futures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also facing pressure despite investors have postponed their expectations of rate cut from Fed to May. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped further to near 4.09%.

    The CME Fedwatch tool indicates that investors are now anticipating an interest rate cut in May as price pressures are still stubborn due to robust households’ spending and upbeat labor market conditions.

    This week, market participants will focus on the United States Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published on Thursday. An upbeat GDP data would underscore the ‘higher interest rates’ narrative. Fed policymakers have been considering early rate cuts as premature that could dampen all efforts yet don to tame price pressures.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price witnesses an intense sell-off after delivering a breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from December 13 low at $22.51. The asset is expected to find an interim support near November 13 low at $21.88. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $22.80 continues to act as a barricade for the Silver price bulls.

    The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that a downside momentum has been triggered.

    Silver four-hour chart

     

  • 19.01.2024 17:30
    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls amid US consumer sentiment boost, high US yields
    • Silver holds ground at $22.50, resilient amid losses, finding strong support at this key level.
    • US Consumer Sentiment boost lifts US Treasury yields, affecting XAG/USD dynamics.
    • Mixed economic signals: Wall Street gains, but US Existing Home Sales hit 13-year low; improved inflation outlook.

    Silver price is extending its losses for the third time in the week and faces solid support at around familiar levels, with sellers unable to decisively push prices below the $22.50 figure. Sentiment improvement amongst US consumers spurred a jump in US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $22.50, down 0.99%.

    XAG/USD holds ground at $22.50 despite Treasury yields surge

    Wall Street trades solidly in the green while US Treasury bond yields advance. Despite that, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is virtually unchanged at 103.41.

    Data-wise, US Existing Home Sales fell to their lowest level over 13 years, slumping -1 % MoM to 3.78 million from 3.82 million the previous months and forecasts. At the same time, US households became more optimistic about the economic and inflation outlook, revealed the University of Michigan (UoM): The UoM Consumer Sentiment on its preliminary reading for January rose by 78.8, exceeding forecasts and last month’s 69.7 increase. Moreover, Americans expect inflation to tick lower in 12 months from now, from 3.1% to 2.9%, and for five years, cooled from 2.9% to 2.8%.

    Following the data, the US 10-year Treasury note yield soared toward 4.196% before stabilizing at around 4.163%, a headwind for precious metals, which usually benefit from lower yields.

    In the meantime, Chicago’s Fed President Austan Goolsbee said they need more data before cutting rates to determine the level of restrictiveness.

    Ahead of the day, the San Franciso Fed President Mary Daly is expected to cross wires ahead of the blackout period, which is ahead of the first monetary policy meeting of 2024.

    XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    From a technical standpoint, Silver has consolidated above/below the $22.50 area, which, once decisively broken to the downside, should expose the next support level seen at the November 13 cycle low of $21.88. Further losses are seen, once surpassed with the next swing at at$20.69, the October 3 low. On the other hand, if buyers lift XAG/USD above the $23.00 figure, that would expose key resistance levels seen at $23.17, the 100-day moving average (DMA), followed by the 200 and 50-DMAs, each at $23.54 and $23.66, respectively.

     

  • 19.01.2024 06:16
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD attempts recovery from $22.40 despite tempered Fed rate-cut bets
    • Silver price finds an interim support near $22.40 amid geopolitical tensions.
    • The Fed is expected to maintain status-quo in January policy meeting for the fourth time in a row.
    • Fed Bostic warns about upside risks of inflation on premature rate cuts.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers to near $22.70 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to extend recovery and Middle East tensions keep driving flows for safe-haven assets. The white metal bounced back from two-months low of $22.43 but is still incapable to convince investors that a solid recovery is on cards.

    S&P500 futures remains flat in the Asian session, portraying a cautious market mood. The USD Index oscillates inside Thursday’s trading range amid absence of front-line economic indicators. 10-year US Treasury yields have climbed to near 4.17%.

    Meanwhile, investors shift focus towards the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which will be announced on January 31. The Fed is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50%. Investors will keenly focus on the guidance on interest rates as when the Fed is considering its first rate-cut after a historically swift ‘rate-tightening’ campaign.

    On Thursday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said rate-cuts can be announced sooner if the central bank has ‘convincing’ evidence that inflation will return to the 2% target in a timely manner. Bostic warned that premature rate cuts and boost overall demand and push price pressures higher, which can spoil efforts yet made to contain stubborn inflation.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price oscillates inside the Descending Triangle chart pattern on a daily scale, which indicates a sharp contraction in volatility. The asset hovers near the horizontal support of the aforementioned chart pattern, which is December 13 low of $22.50. The downward-sloping trendline of the volatility contraction pattern is plotted from December 3 high at $25.92.

    The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $23.20 continues to act as a resistance for Silver price bulls.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is at a make or a break level. A convincing stability in the 20.00-40.00 range will trigger a bearish momentum.

    Silver daily chart

     

  • 18.01.2024 18:01
    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD advances modestly on mixed US housing and jobs data
    • Silver prices rise 0.50% supported by a softer USD and positive Wall Street performance.
    • XAG/USD’s trajectory influenced by US economic data, including strong Jobless Claims and mixed housing data.
    • Market risk sentiment, shaped by Middle East geopolitical concerns, including Israel-Hamas tensions, impacts Silver prices.

    Silver’s advance in the mid-North American session on Thursday, sponsored by US Treasury yields, stands steady, while the Greenback (USD) posts decent gains as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). Therefore, the XAG/USD exchanges hands at $22.62 after bottoming around $22.43, up 0.38%.

    XAG/USD’s clings to decent gains on geopolitical risks, amid mixed US data

    Market sentiment turned positive as Wall Street registered solid gains, between 0.20% and 0.75%, except for the Dow Jones, tumbling 0.23%. US Treasury bond yields, in the short end of the curve, remain unchanged, while the belly and the long-end post gains of between four to six basis points, capping Silver’s advance.

    On the data front, unemployment claims revealed by the US Department of Labor added to strong retail sales posted in December, while industrial production recovered after back-to-back months of contraction and stagnation. Initial Jobless Claims for the last week rose by 187K, below forecast and previous month’s data.

    US Housing Starts slid from 1.525 million to 1.46 in December, a -4.3% contraction. Contrarily, Binding Permits rose 1.9% or 1.495 million, compared with November’s 1.467 million, and exceeded forecasts of 1.48 million.

    In the meantime, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized that he’s open to rate cuts if inflation drops faster than expected. He commented that monetary policy could start in July “if there’s convincing evidence inflation is slowing faster.”

    Given the fundamental backdrop, Silver could likely remain underpinned by a soft US Dollar. That, along with geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, with the conflict of Israel-Hamas spurring a crisis that had spread into the Red Sea, involving Houthis and an alliance between the US and the UK.

    XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    Silver’s daily chart portrays the grey metal neutral-downward biased, following the formation of a ‘death-cross,’ with the 50-day moving average (DMA) crossing below the 200-DMA, which could exacerbate further losses in the near term. The next demand zone on the downside would be the $22.00 figure ahead of the November 13 low of $21.88. On the upside, if XAG/USD buyers push prices above the $23.00 mark, that could pave the way to challenge the 200-DMA at $23.55.

     

  • 18.01.2024 06:14
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD finds support near $22.50, downside remains intact
    • Silver price gauges an interim cushion near $22.50, more downside looks likely as Fed rate cut bets ease.
    • Strong US consumer spending has dented hopes of rate cut by the Fed in March.
    • Silver price hovers near the horizontal support of the descending triangle chart pattern.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers an intermediate support after a sharp correction to near $22.50 in the late Asian session. The near-term demand for the white metal is still downbeat as trades have pared bets supporting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March.

    S&P500 futures have posted nominal losses on board in Tokyo, portraying further decline in the risk-appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected to near 103.25 after failing extend rally above fresh monthly high of 103.63. 10-year US Treasury yields have eased slightly to near 4.1%.

    Investors are losing conviction towards an interest rate cut by the Fed in the march monetary policy meeting due to absence of support from United States economic indicators. After a stubborn inflation report for December, Retail Sales data outperformed the market consensus. The US consumer spending rose at a stronger pace of 0.6% against expectations of 0.4% and the prior reading of 0.3%.

    Strong US Retail Sales were prompted by robust demand for motor vehicles and online purchases. Considering resilience in the US economy, Fed Governor Christopher Waller advised the need of maintaining a ‘careful and methodical’ approach while reducing interest rates.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price trades near the horizontal support of the Descending Triangle chart pattern formed on a four-hour scale, which is around December 13 low of $22.50. The downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from December 3 high at $25.92.

    The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $23.00 continues to act as a barricade for the Silver price bulls.

    Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that a bearish momentum has been triggered.

    Silver four-hour chart

     

  • 17.01.2024 20:24
    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles amid strong US data, Fed’s caution stance
    • Silver price down 1.58%, nearing $22.50, amid strong US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.
    • Waller's comments on cautious rate cuts prompt market to rethink Fed easing expectations."
    • Technical outlook: Further silver price decline possible, with focus on $22.00 and $21.88; $23.00 critical for recovery.

    Silver price stays depressed for the second straight day, though it appears to have bottomed at around the $22.50 area for the third occasion during the last couple of months, as it loses 1.58% after hitting a daily high of $22.94.

    XAG/USD falters, bottoms at around $22.50 as investors adjust Fed rate cut trajectory

    Fundamentally speaking, solid economic data from the United States (US) bolstered the Greenback (USD) as US Treasury yields resumed to the upside. Retail Sales for December rose by 0.6%, exceeding forecasts of a 0.4% jump and November’s reading. Lately, the US Federal Reserve announced that Industrial Production improved modestly by 0.1%, after contracting and stagnating in October and November of last year.

    Meanwhile, Fed officials continued to push back against aggressive rate cuts, even though most of them see at least three rate cuts, as portrayed by December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Yesterday’s comments of Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said that he supports rate cuts but added the US central bank is in no rush to relax policy. That sparked a reaction on bets that the Fed would ease policy faster than expected, as seen with investors trimming odds from 175 basis points of rate cuts at the beginning of the week to 148.

    XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    Therefore, further Silver’s weakness is expected, though sellers must push prices below $22.50. A breach of that level will expose the $22.00 a troy ounce figure, followed by the November 13 swing low of $21.88. Further downside is seen at the October 3 low of $20.69. Contrarily, if buyers regain $23.00, that could pav the way for challenging the 100-day moving average (DMA) at $23.20.

    XAG/USD Technical Levels

     

  • 17.01.2024 13:13
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD recovery attempts remain limited below $23.00

     

    • Silver remains under pressure, with upside attempts limited below $23.00.
    • The Dollar is showing muscle with investors awaiting the US Retail Sales report.
    • XAG/USD: Below $22.50 bearish momentum will increase.


    Silver (XAG/USD), is trading lower for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The US Dollar remains bid with investors scaling back hopes of Fed easing in 2024 and risk-averse trading, which is acting as a headwind for precious metals.

    Fed Governor Christofer Waller discarded any rate cut as long as inflation remains at “striking distance” to the bank’s 2% target, which cast further doubt on investors’ hopes of a major policy shift.

    The focus today is on the US Retail Sales. Consumption is expected to have improved in December adding to evidence that the economy remains resilient and strengthening the US-Dollar supportive soft landing narrative.

    Somewhat later an array of Fed policymakers will meet the press, likely to strengthen the “higher for longer “ rhetoric.

    XAG/USD remains hovering above $22.50 support

    The pair is trading within a falling triangle, with price action unable to put a significant distance from the $22.50 support area. Below here, selling pressure might increase, with bears focusing on the $21.90 level.

    On the upside, a bullish reaction above $23.53 would ease downside pressure and expose the $24.60 level.

    Technical levels to watch

     

     

  • 17.01.2024 06:20
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD slides to near $22.70 as Fed speakers maintain hawkish stance
    • Silver price falls sharply to near $22.70 as Fed Waller denied early rate cut discussions.
    • The USD Index has climbed to near 103.50 amid a risk-off mood.
    • Investors await the US Retail Sales and the Industrial Production data for further guidance.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) faces an intense sell-off as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are maintaining the narrative of keeping interest rates higher for a longer period. The white metal has extended its downside to near $22.70 and is expected to remain on the tenterhooks ahead of the United States Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.

    S&P500 futures have posted some losses in the Asian session, portraying further decline in the risk-appetite of the market participants.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rallied to near 103.50 as Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could not rush to rate cuts amid revision risks in inflation prints. He added that the Fed will reduce interest rates only if inflation continues to moderate. While the 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped marginally to little above 4.0%.

    As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances in favour of an interest rate cut by 25 basis points (bps) have declined to 62% after a hawkish commentary from Fed Waller.

    Going forward, market participants will focus on the US monthly Retail Sales data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The economic data is seen growing by 0.4% against 0.3% increase in November. The Industrial Production is expected to remain stagnant.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price is declining towards the crucial support that is plotted from December 13 low around $22.51 on a four-hour scale. The 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $23.48 has been acting as a major barricade for the Silver price bulls.

    The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below 40.00, which indicates that a bearish momentum has been triggered.

    Silver four-hour chart

     

  • 16.01.2024 20:07
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD dips below $23.00 on high US yields, as evening-star emerges
    • Silver falls 1% influenced by surging US Treasury yields and Fed's resistance to a March rate cut.
    • Technical analysis shows XAG/USD with a neutral to downward bias; key support at $22.48, and $22.00.
    • Potential rebound above $23.00 could challenge the 100-day DMA at $23.23, with further targets at $23.58/66 and the $24.00 level.

    Silver price slumps below $23.00 a troy ounce, down 1% on the day, as US Treasury yields soar due to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials pushing back against a March rate cut. Consequently, the non-yielding metal has dropped and printed a two-day low at around $22.86.

    From a technical standpoint, XAG/USD is neutral to downward biased, though the grey metal hasn’t been able to drop below the January 11 daily low of $22.48, which could pave the way for further downside. The formation of an ‘evening star’ exacerbated Silver’s fall, with the next support level seen as the $22.00 figure, followed by the November 13 swing low of $21.88.

    On the other hand, if XAG/USD’s buyers lift prices above $23.00, they could threaten to challenge the 100-day moving average (DMA) at $23.23. Further upside is seen at the confluence of the 200 and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) at $23.58/66, before testing the $24.00 threshold.

    XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

    XAG/USD Technical Levels

     

  • 16.01.2024 12:55
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD retreats on USD strength, $22.50 is a key support
    • Precious metals depreciate with the US Dollar rallying as investors pare back bets of March cuts.
    • The rising geopolitical tensions are increasing support for the safe-haven USD.
    • XAG/USD has a key supporter level at $2250.


    Silver (XAG/USD), like all precious metals, is depreciating today as the US Dollar regains lost ground. The combination of dwindling Fed rate cut hopes and higher demand for safe assets amid the increasing geopolitical tensions is underpinning a significant USDollar recovery.

    A slew of ECB speakers playing down hopes of immediate rate cuts have forced investors to rethink their bets on Fed easing in March. Later today Christopher Waller, a hawkish Fed Board member is likely to reinforce that view ahead of Wednesday’s US retail sales data.

    Beyond that, news that Houthis have extended their targets to US and UK vessels, in retaliation for this weekend’s attacks, has increased risk aversion. The unstable situation in the Red Sea is likely to boost transport prices, phishing inflation higher in the mid-term and pose a challenge for the major central banks.

    In this context, the US Dollar is trading higher, fuelled by higher US Treasury yields, in the detriment of the yieldless metals.

    XAG/USD has an important support level at $22.50

    From a wider perspective, the pair is trading within a falling triangle, with bears focusing on the $22.50 support area. Below here, more sellers might come along, increasing negative pressure towards $21.90 ahead of the $20.70 level.

    On the contrary, a bullish reaction above $23.53 would ease downside pressure and expose the $24.60 level.

    XAG/USD Daily Chart

    Technical Levels to Watch

     

     

  • 15.01.2024 19:45
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD advances amid reduced US yields, dovish Fed outlook
    • The XAG/USD  rose near the $23.20 level, challenging the 100-day SMA.
    • Despite hot CPI data, the market maintains high dovish bets on the Federal Reserve.
    • The 2-year bond yield hit fresh lows since May.

    Starting the week, the Silver (XAG/USD) is seeing an uplift, trading around the $23.20 mark. The upward move is primarily driven by decreased US Yields and dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed), which have helped steer the metal upward.

    Currently, data from the CME FedWatch Tool displays a high chance of interest rate reductions in March and May, calculated at 70% and 66%, respectively. It's worth noticing that the market’s dovish bets may be exaggerated as inflation in the US slightly picked up in December, and the US economy remains overheated, which may present a threat to the Fed in its battle against inflation. Investors may be discounting that the bank won’t risk an economic downturn in a year with elections.

    Presently, US Treasury yields are sharply down. The 2-year rate is trading at 4.14%, whereas the 5-year and 10-year rates are observed at 3.83% and 3.96%, respectively. This pushes the price of the non-yielding metal up as the opportunity cost of holding them decreases.

    On Wednesday, the US will release Retail Sales Figures from December and the Fed the Beige Book, which may affect the metal’s price dynamics..

    XAG/USD levels to watch

    The daily chart suggests that the metal has a bearish outlook in the short term despite the upward movements. From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat, indicating a lack of momentum in either direction. However, its position in the negative territory suggests that sellers have been more active recently.

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), evidenced by flat red bars, signals a bearish bias. While the MACD itself is flat, indicating no strong momentum, the color of the histogram's bars reinforces the presence of sellers in the market.

    The Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) further supplement the bearish narrative. The metal’s price is trading below the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs, a prevailing indication that bears are in control of the bigger picture.


    XAG/USD daily chart

  • 15.01.2024 13:06
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD juggles around $23.30, remains upbeat on renewed Fed rate cut bets
    • Silver price consolidates around $23.60 as trading volume is lower than average due to closed US markets.
    • Investors are more confident about Fed reducing interest rates from March after soft US PPI data.
    • Deepening Middle East tensions have improved safe-haven appeal.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) trades back-and-forth around $23.30 in a thin-volume trading session due to holiday in the US markets on account of Martin Luther King Birthday.

    The broader appeal for non-yielding assets is still upbeat as investors seem more convinced about a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) from March after the release of the softer-than-projected United States Producer Price Index (PPI) for December. A surprisingly soft US PPI report has eased fears for inflation remaining stubborn ahead.

    S&P500 futures have witnessed some losses in the European session, portraying a decline in risk-appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded to near $102.50 as investors expect that optimism about the Fed cutting interest rates earlier than other central banks is reaching maturity. The market participants see the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) also reducing borrowing costs sooner due to vulnerable economic outlook.

    This week, market participants will keenly focus on the US monthly Retail Sales data for December. Investors anticipate that the consumer spending grew at a higher pace of 0.4% against 0.3% increase in November.

    Meanwhile, the appeal for safe-haven assets has also improved due to deepening Middle East crisis. Iran-backed Houthis rebels have warned about a retaliation for airstrikes by the US and the UK military.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price delivers a sharp recovery after witnessing a selling climax near $22.50. On a 60-minute timeframe, the downside in the Silver price will be supported around January 4 low at $22.69 while the upside will remain capped near December 2023 low at $23.54.

    The near-term demand seems positive as the asset is holding above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $23.10.

    Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the 40.00-60.00 range. This indicates that momentum has faded but upside bias is still intact.

    Silver hourly chart

     

  • 12.01.2024 21:49
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD edges up but falters shy of 200-DMA
    • Silver's recent rally to $23.52 curbed by resistance at 50 and 200-DMAs, leading to a slight pullback in prices.
    • Technical analysis shows Silver trading in a sideways trend; immediate support at $23.00, followed by $22.48.
    • Potential for further gains if Silver breaks above the 100-DMA at $23.25, targeting the $23.60/65 resistance zone.

    Silver price trims its losses, but it remains below the 100-day moving average (DMA) after hitting a new five-day high of $23.52 on Friday. Geopolitical tensions bolstered the grey metal, which aimed towards the confluence of the 50 and 200-DMAs, but buyers' failure to crack that area opened the door for a pullback. The XAG/USD trades at $23.15, up by 1.85%.

    The non-yielding metal remains sideways, though slightly tilted to the downside after buyers failed to conquer the confluence of the 50 and 200-DMAs. With Silver spot price trading below the 200-DMA, the first support is seen at $23.00 a troy ounce. A breach of the latter will expose the January 11 low at $22.48, followed by the $22.00 mark. Once that support level is broken, up next would be the November 13 cycle low of $21.88.

    In the outcome of buyers stepping in, they would clash with the 100-DMA at $23.25. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the 50 and 200-DMAs at around $23.60/65, before opening the path toward $24.00.

    XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

    XAG/USD Technical Levels

     

  • 12.01.2024 14:22
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD soars to near $23.35 on soft US PPI, escalating geopolitical tensions
    • Silver price rises vertically to near $23.35 as US PPI report surprisingly turns out softer.
    • Deepening Middle East tensions have improved the safe-haven appeal.
    • Silver price recovers sharply and approaching the downward-sloping trendline of the Descending Triangle chart pattern.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) has rallied to near $23.35 as the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported a softer-than-anticipated Producer Price Index (PPI) report for December. The headline PPI contracts by 0.1% and core PPI remains stagnant for the second month in a row. Investors projected headline and core PPI rising by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

    Producers at factory gates rose prices of goods and services at a slower pace of 1.0% against 1.3% as anticipated by investors. The core PPI decelerated sharply to 1.8% vs. consensus of 1.9% and the prior reading of 2.0%.

    A soft PPI data has strengthened bets in favour of an interest rate cut decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, market participants see the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in March at 76%, which were earlier at 66%.

    The market mood has turned risk-off as the US and UK military groups have launched airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels amid retaliation for attacks at merchant vessels shipping from Red Sea. This has escalated risks of Iran entering into Israel-Hamas war at Gaza. Deepening Middle East tensions have improved appeal for non-yielding assets.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen vertically as soft PPI data has empowered geopolitical tensions.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price has delivered a V-shape recovery after discovering buying interest near the horizontal support plotted from December 13 low at $22.51 placed on a two-hour scale. The white metal has climbed above the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which indicates that the near-term demand has turned bullish.

    Broadly, the asset is forming a Descending Triangle chart pattern, which indicates a sheer volatility contraction. The Relative Strength index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of shifting into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. If the 14-period RSI manages to do so, a bullish momentum would be activated.

    Silver two-hour chart

     

  • 12.01.2024 06:21
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD recovers quickly to near $23 on persistent Fed rate cut bets
    • Silver price rebounded to near $23.00 as investors digest higher US inflation data.
    • Investors remain confident that the Fed will cut interest rates in March.
    • Silver price could slip to $21.88 if the RSI (14) settles below 40.00.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) discovered a significant buying interest after printing a fresh seven-week low at $22.50. The white metal has recovered to near $23.00 as bets in favour of a rate-cut decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March remains firmer despite stubbornly higher United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December.

    S&P500 futures have generated some losses in the Asian session, portraying a decline in the risk-appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has surrendered entire gains generated after the release of the higher-than-projected inflation figures.

    The headline inflation expanded at an annual pace of 3.4% against the consensus of 3.2% and the prior reading of 3.1%. While the core CPI that strips of volatile food and oil prices decelerated slightly to 3.9% versus. the prior reading of 4.0%.

    Investors remain confident that the Fed will start the ‘rate-cut’ campaign from March despite a sticky inflation report. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances in favour of a rate cut by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.00-5.25% remained steady at around 68%.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price discovers some buying interest near the horizontal support plotted from December 13 low at $22.51. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.17 continues to act as a barricade for the Silver price bulls. The Silver price would expose to November 13 low at $21.88 if the asset faces sell-off again.

    A bearish momentum would activate if the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into the lower range of 20.00-40.00.

    Silver four-hour chart

     

  • 11.01.2024 20:27
    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD fluctuates amid US inflation data, Fed’s commentary
    • Silver's volatility driven by recent US CPI figures showing higher headline inflation, sparking concerns over Fed's policy path.
    • Fed officials' cautious remarks on rate cuts contribute to market uncertainty, influencing Silver's price dynamics.
    • Decline in US Treasury yields, particularly at the short end, adds pressure on the Dollar, impacting precious metal markets.

    Silver price remained volatile during Thursday’s session after data from the United States (US) probed that inflation is stickier than expected, while Federal Reserve (Fed) officials commented that it’s too soon to expect a rate cut in March’s meeting. The XAG/USD exchanges hands at $22.70, down 0.77%.

    Fundamentally speaking, the fall of US Treasury yields eased the pressure off Silver prices, which hit a two-month low of $22.48, before trimming its losses. Headline inflation in the US rose by 3.4% YoY exceeding forecasts for an uptick of just 3.2%. The same report revealed that core numbers dipped below 4% YoY, lower than November’s data, though they exceeded estimates.

    In the meantime, some Fed officials had stressed that although progress on lowering inflation is seen, the latest reports suggest it’s becoming stickier than expected. Even though they had opened the door to ease monetary policy at some point, they remained muted about providing clues regarding the first cut.

    Despite that, US Treasury yields are falling off the cliff, with the short end of the curve dropping twice the basis points compared to the belly. The US 2-year Treasury note yield is down ten basis points, at 4.26%, while the 10-year note yield sits at 3.98%, down by four basis points. This is weighing on the Greenback as the US Dollar Index (DXY) pares its earlier gains, almost flat at 102.39.

    XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    Silver’s is neutral to downward biased, though it faced solid support at around $22.51, the latest cycle low hit on December 13, with buyers stepping in and lifting the XAG/USD spot toward current levels. Nevertheless, if Silver finishes the session below $23.00, that will keep buyers pressured. XAG/USD's first support would be the January 11 low of $22.48, followed by $22.00 a troy ounce, ahead of the November 13 low of $21.88. Otherwise, if buyers reclaim $23.00, that could open the door to challenge the 100-day moving average (DMA) at around $23.26.  

     

  • 11.01.2024 14:42
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD falls below $23 after stubbornly higher US Inflation report
    • Silver price skids below $23.00 as US Inflation remains stubbornly higher-than-projected.
    • Monthly headline and core inflation grew by 0.3%.
    • The argue in favour of keeping a restrictive policy stance would get strengthen ahead.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) drops sharply as the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported a hotter-than-projected inflation report for December. The monthly highly inflation was up by 0.3% against the consensus of 0.2% and the former reading of 0.1%. Annually, inflation rose strongly by 3.4% versus. the expectations of 3.2% and the prior release of 3.1%.

    The monthly core Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a steady pace of 0.3% as anticipated. On an annual basis, the underlying inflation decelerated slightly to 3.9% against 4.0% in November while investors projected a sharp deceleration to 3.8%.

    A stubbornly higher US inflation indicates that Federal Reserve (Fed) should not rush for cutting interest rates and would allow them to maintain a restrictive policy stance atleast for the first-half.

    On Wednesday, New York President John Williams supported for interest rates remaining higher as more work is needed to get inflation back to 2% target. John Williams said it will only be appropriate to unwind restrictive monetary policy stance only when the Fed is confident that inflation is moving toward 2% on a sustained basis.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises to 102.70 as bets supporting rate cuts by the Fed in March have dropped. The 10-year US Treasury yields have climbed to near 4.05%.

    Silver technical analysis

    Silver price demonstrates a back-and-forth move around $23.00 on a two-hour scale. The white metal is expected to get direction as investors reconsider bets supporting rate cuts in March. Horizontal support plotted from December 13 low at $22.51 will act as a major cushion for Silver bulls. The broader appeal seems bearish as the asset is trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a lacklustre performance.

    Silver two-hour

     

     

  • 11.01.2024 08:43
    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD trades with modest gains near $23.00, bearish bias remains
    • Silver attracts buyers on Thursday and snaps a three-day losing streak to the weekly low.
    • The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels.
    • Bears might wait for a break below $22.70 or the monthly low before placing fresh bets.

    Silver (XAG/USD) gains some positive traction on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to the weekly low, around the $22.80-$22.75 region touched the previous day. The white metal sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the $23.00 round figure, up 0.60% for the day.

    From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up is likely to confront resistance near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the $23.30 region. This is followed by a multi-month-old ascending trend-line support breakpoint, around the $23.60 region, which now coincides with the 200-day SMA and should act as a key pivotal point. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $23.80 horizontal resistance en route to the $24.00 round-figure mark.

    Some follow-through buying will suggest that the recent corrective downfall since late December has run its course and shift the bias in favour of bullish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the positive momentum towards the $24.60 area, or the December 22 high, before aiming back towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and support prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels. This, in turn, favours bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the downside.

    That said, it will still be prudent to wait for weakness below a multi-week low, around the $22.70 region touched last Thursday before positioning for the resumption of the recent depreciating move witnessed over the past two weeks or so. The XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the December monthly swing low, around the mid-$22.00s and test the next relevant support near the $22.25 region before eventually dropping further towards the $22.00 round-figure mark.

    Silver daily chart

    fxsoriginal

    Technical levels to watch

     

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