Quotes and rates for precious metals Silver vs US Dollar (XAGUSD)

• Silver price follows the rally in gold as global central banks increase their reserves.
• The price of Silver has advanced to its highest level since June 2021.
• The eased geopolitical situation in the Middle East could have limited the advance of Silver price.

Silver price advances for the third consecutive session, trading higher to near $28.00 per ounce during the early European hours on Tuesday. This surge in Silver price mirrors the rally in gold, driven by heightened consumer and industrial demand. Global central banks increasing their reserves in gold have also contributed to the increased appetite for precious metals.

Furthermore, the demand for non-yielding assets like silver is bolstered as US Treasury yields correct after two days of gains. At present, the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.78% and 4.39%, respectively.

Traders eagerly await the release of the US Consumer Price Index data scheduled for Wednesday. It is anticipated that the US headline CPI will accelerate in March, while the core measure is expected to show a cooling down. The industrial outlook for metals received a boost from strong manufacturing data from top consumer China and projections for increased solar installations.

However, Silver price could have faced downward pressure as geopolitical tensions have eased in the Middle East, following the withdrawal of most Israel Defense Forces from southern Gaza, possibly due to growing international pressure, has contributed to easing tensions. Additionally, peace talks between Israel and Hamas have resumed in Egypt

Traders will now shift their focus to the upcoming US inflation data and the release of FOMC minutes this week to gain more clarity on the timing of the Fed's monetary policy adjustments.

• Silver's rise mirrors growing precious metals interest, fueled by global central bank moves.
• Overbought RSI hints at consolidation before aiming higher, reflecting market optimism.
• Upcoming targets: $28.00 resistance, June 2021 peak, signaling potential for more gains.

Silver’s price rose for the second straight day, climbing to $27.80, gaining more than 1% in late trading on Monday’s North American session, even though US Treasury bond yields advanced. Even though speculations that the US Federal Reserve could cut twice instead of three times were no excuse for the grey’s metal advance linked to Gold’s rally. Appetite for precious metals increased as global central banks increased their reserves in Gold.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The rally in the precious metals is set to continue, with the grey’s metal set to extend its gains past the $28.00 figure. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that Silver is overbought, it could consolidate at around the $27.00-$28.00 range, before achieving its next leg up.

Stir resistance lies at $28.00, followed by the June 10 , 2021 peak at around $28.28. Further upside is seen at $29.00.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price exhibits strength around $28 despite traders pare Fed rate cut bets for June.
• Fed Bowman said current conditions are not appropriate for lowering borrowing rates.
• The US Dollar awaits the US inflation data for fresh guidance.

Silver price (XAG/USD) faces a nominal sell-off after printing a fresh two-year high around $28.00 in Monday’s early New York session. The near-term demand for the white metal remains strong even though US Treasury yields soar after upbeat United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March dent speculation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering borrowing rates from the June meeting. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.43%.

Strong labor demand is offset by higher wage offerings, which leads to robust consumer spending that fuels consumer price inflation. After the US NFP release, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said, “We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.”

Fed policymakers have been reiterating that there is no urgency for rate cuts. Policymakers need good inflation data for months before pivoting to rate cuts.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls slightly to 104.24 but remains inside Friday’s trading range. The USD index stays on the sidelines as the focus shifts to the consumer price inflation data for March, which will be published on Wednesday.

The core CPI that strips off volatile food and Oil prices is estimated to have dipped slightly to 3.7% from 3.8%. A more-than-anticipated decline in the US inflation data will prompt Fed rate cut expectations for the June meeting.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price sees a sharp upside after a breakout of the Ascending Triangle pattern formed on daily timeframe. The aforementioned chart pattern exhibits sharp volatility contraction but a decisive breakout leads to heavy volume and wider ticks on the upside. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern, placed from May 5 high at $26.13, has turned into a crucial support for the Silver price bulls.

Advancing 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $25.50 keeps the near-term demand strong.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong momentum leaned to the upside.

Silver daily chart

• Silver's surge to multi-year highs reflects strong precious metals momentum, undeterred by US job market.
• Technical outlook hints at more gains, with resistances at $27.50, $28.00.
• RSI dip may prompt support tests at $27.00, $26.12 for future direction clues.

Silver soared sharply and finished the week with gains of close to 10%, hitting three-year highs after reaching levels last seen in June 2021. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $27.45 a troy ounce, gaining more than 2%.

The precious metals segment ignored an upbeat US jobs report that might delay the Federal Reserve from slashing rates in the June meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants decreased their bets on a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in June, though July remains in play. Silver followed Gold’s path, though the latter is trading at all-time highs.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The grey metal daily chart shows Silver dipped as low as $26.29 after the US NFP release but, in the aftermath, rallied to multi-year highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) despite being at overbought conditions, aims up, an indication that buyers are gathering momentum. That said, XAG/USD next resistance would be $27.50, followed by the $28.00 psychological mark. Key resistance lies at June 10, 2021, high at $28.28.

On the other hand, if the RSI punches below the 70 level, that could sponsor a pullback, toward the $27.00 figure. The next support would be the May 5, 2023 high turned support at $26.12, followed by the $26.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price finds cushion near $26.60 amid correction ahead of US NFP report.
• The US NFP report will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts in June.
• Deepening Middle East tensions keep near-term demand for Silver intact.

Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers support near $26.60 after a pullback from more than two-years high of $27.34. The white metal takes a breather after a strong rally as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

According to the expectations, fresh payrolls were 200K, lower than the former reading of 275K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come out steady at 3.9%.

Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, which will provide fresh inflation outlook. The monthly wage growth is forecasted to have grown at a higher pace of 0.3% from 0.1% in February. In the same period, the annually wage growth is estimated to have dipped to 4.1% against 4.3%.

Strong labor demand and higher wage growth would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay rate cut plans while signs of labor market conditions easing will boost rate cut hopes for the June meeting. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes after recovering from two-week low of 103.90 ahead of the US NFP report.

The demand for Silver is bullish in the longer horizon due to deepening Middle East tensions. Air strikes from Israel forces on Iranian embassy in Damascus, situated near Syria’s capital, has deepened fears of Iran’s participation to Israel-Palestine war.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price saw a stalwart rally after a breakout of the Ascending Triangle pattern formed on daily timeframe. The aforementioned chart pattern exhibits sharp volatility contraction but a decisive breakout leads to heavy volume and wider ticks on the upside. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern, placed from May 5 high at $26.13, has turned into a crucial support for the Silver price bulls.

Advancing 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $25.25 keeps the near-term demand unabated.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong momentum leaned to the upside.

Silver daily chart

• Silver pulls back from $27.33 amid geopolitical concerns, market caution.
• Bullish trend holds, with supports at $25.91, $25.08.
• Rebound above $27.00 may target recent high, with eyes on $28.00, subject to market shifts.

Silver’s retreats after hitting a two-and-a-half-year high of $27.33 amid growing speculations of geopolitical risks due to Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria. That has triggered a late risk-off impulse, which is weighing on the precious metals, including Gold. The XAG/USD is down more than 1% and trades at $26.84.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Silver’s remain upward biased as depicted by successive series of higher highs and higher lows, despite retreating as of writing. If sellers would like to regain control, they must drag XAG/USD’s prices toward the December 4 high turned support at $25.91. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the April 2 low at $25.08 before plummeting toward March 27’s low of $24.33.

On the other hand, if buyers push Silver’s spot price above $27.00, look for a re-test of the year-to-date (YTD) high at $27.33 before rallying to $28.00.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price could find a key support area around the major level of $27.50, following the psychological level of $26.00.
• Technical analysis suggests confirmation of the bullish sentiment.
• The immediate resistance zone appears around the all-time high of $27.33 and the major support at $27.50.

Silver price attempts to snap its five-day winning streak, retreating from the all-time highs and trading near $27.00 per troy ounce during early European hours on Thursday. The price of the Silver received upward support as the US Dollar lost ground due to the dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rates trajectory.

Silver price could find key support around the major level of $27.50, following the psychological level of $26.00, in conjunction with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $25.94. A break below this level could exert downward pressure on navigating the region around a major support level of $25.50 and the 14-exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $25.43.

Technical analysis suggests a bullish confirmation for the Gold price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, indicating strength in buying momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a divergence above the signal line and remains above the centerline.

On the upside, the all-time high of $27.33 could act as an immediate resistance, followed by the major support at $27.50. A breakthrough above the latter could lead the Silver price to explore the region around the psychological level of $28.00.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

• Silver price drops slightly from fresh two-year of $26.30 ahead of key events.
• The near-term appeal is upbeat due to deepening geopolitical tensions.
• The US Dollar corrects ahead of Fed Powell speech.

Silver price (XAG/USD) faces nominal selling pressure after printing a fresh two-year high at $26.30 in the European session on Wednesday. The near-term demand for the white metal is upbeat due to deepening geopolitical tensions and a correction in the US Dollar.

Major agencies have accused Israel’s military for targeting charity staff who were advised to deliver necessities to civilians in Gaza. Non-yielding assets, such as Silver, expect higher investment in times of geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, a corrective move in the US Dollar has also boosted demand for silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to 104.73 despite upbeat United States Manufacturing PMI for March has improved the economic outlook.

In today’s session, investors will focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, and the release of the ADP Employment Change and the Services PMI for March. Fed Powell’s speech could provide clues about when the central bank will start reducing interest rates. The ADP agency will report the number of jobseekers recruited by private employers.

Later this week, the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March will be the major event. The official labor market data could influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts at the June meeting.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price prints a fresh two-year high at $25.30 after break above the crucial resistance of $26.22, plotted from 22 April 2022. The near-term demand is strong as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.08 is sloping higher.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that momentum towards the upside is strong.

• Silver price climbs above $25.50 as US Dollar’s rally stalls.
• Investors remain risk-averse as Fed rate cut expectations ease.
• Silver price aims to recapture annual highs of $26.14.

Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps to $25.80 after the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported steady United States JOLTS Job Opening figures for February. US employers posted 8.756 million, against expectations of 8.74 million, and the former release of 8.748 million. This indicates that the labor demand is steady.

The market sentiment is downbeat as the S&P 500 has opened on a negative note. Easing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations for the June meeting has turned investors risk-averse. 10-year US Treasury yields soar to 4.40%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dips to 104.70 after refreshing a four-month high at 105.10.

The US Dollar struggles to maintain strength despite the upbeat US Manufacturing PMI for March, which has strengthened the US economic outlook further. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI landed above the 50.0 threshold for the first time after contracting for 15 straight months.

This week, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The labor market data will provide fresh cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price is inch away from testing annual highs at $26.14, formed on May 5. The near-term demand for the white metal is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.63 is sloping higher.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is intact.

Silver daily chart

• Silver scales higher for the fourth straight day and spikes to a one-and-half-week high.
• The technical setup favours bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Any meaningful corrective decline is likely to find decent support near the $25.00 mark.

Silver (XAG/USD) gains positive traction for the fourth straight day on Tuesday and climbs further beyond mid-$25.00s during the first half of the European session, back closer to the YTD peak touched last week.

From a technical perspective, the recent bounce from the $24.35 resistance-turned-support zone and a subsequent strong move up favours bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside.

Hence, some follow-through strength towards testing the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through buying would mark a fresh breakout and allow the XAG/USD to resume its recent strong upward trajectory witnessed since late February.

On the flip side, any meaningful corrective decline is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the $25.00 psychological mark. The next relevant support is pegged near the $24.65 region. A convincing break below the latter could drag the XAG/USD towards the aforementioned resistance-turned-support, around the $24.35 zone, which should act as a key pivotal point.

Some follow-through selling might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the decline further towards the $24.15-$24.10 region. The white metal could eventually weaken below the $24.00 round-figure mark, towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the $23.60 zone.

Silver daily chart

• Recent ISM report signaled an uptick in US business activity, with PMIs beating expectations.
• Markets are discounting a reduced likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting.
• Perceived hawkish bets on the Fed fueled a surge in US Treasury bond yields which weigh on non-yielding metals.
• Investors await key US labor market indicators to gain further guidance on the economy's health.

The XAG/USD pair is trading near the $24.98 level, mostly neutral during Monday's session. This comes after the signals of resilience in the US economy underscored by the recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report and the surprising uptick in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). In that sense, the resilience of the US economy fueled a rise in hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) in hand with higher US Treasury yields which made the grey metal decline.

The recent figures from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report have brought a breath of fresh air to perceptions of the US economy, revealing an uptick in business activity for March. This comes as a signal of economic robustness, a sentiment echoed by the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which climbed to 50.3 in March. This figure not only surpassed the forecasted 48.4 but marked a noticeable advance from February's 47.8. Meanwhile, the ISM report's Prices Paid Index leaped to an annual high of 55.8, a level not seen since it stood at 52.5 in August 2022.

This pattern of improvement might lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to think twice about easing its monetary policy. Market reactions were swift, with the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting plummeting from 85% to around 65% in response to the enduring resilience of the US economy. The bond market has also felt the ripples of these developments, with a notable surge in US Treasury bond yields, often seen as the cost of holding non-yielding metals, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.71%, while both the 5-year and the 10-year yields are at 4.33%, all pointing to a sharp uptick and possibly reflecting increased hawkish bets on the Fed. 

Looking ahead, key US labor market indicators such as Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate are highly anticipated. These figures are poised to provide deeper insights into the current health and trajectory of the country's workforce, offering critical clues to both policymakers and investors.

XAG/USD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a positive trend for the XAG/USD. The RSI reading, nestled in the positive territory, remains steady affirming the dominance of buyers, which may lead to continued upward momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands in negative territory, printing red bars which suggests that there is a mild bearish presence.

When scrutinizing the overall trend, the XAG/USD currently sits above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), denoting strong upward momentum over the larger time frames.

• Silver gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to over a one-week high.
• Mixed oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution for aggressive bullish traders.
• Weakness below the $25.00 mark is more likely to get bought into and remain limited.

Silver (XAG/USD) builds on last week's bounce from the $24.35 resistance-turned-support zone and gains positive traction for the third successive day on Monday. The white metal sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the $25.15 region, just below a more than one-week top touched earlier today.

Meanwhile, mixed technical indicators on the daily chart warrant some caution for bullish traders. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $25.65-$25.75 region, or the YTD peak touched in March. This is closely followed by the December 2023 swing high – levels just ahead of the $26.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the said handle should allow the XAG/USD to resume its recent strong uptrend witnessed since late February.

On the flip side, weakness back below the $25.00 psychological mark is likely to attract fresh buyers near the $24.65 region. This should help limit the downside for the XAG/USD near the aforementioned resistance-turned-support, around the $24.35 zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and drag the white metal to the next relevant support near the $24.15-$24.10 region en route to the $24.00 mark.

Some follow-through selling would make the XAG/SUD vulnerable to accelerate the downward trajectory further towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged around the $23.35-$23.30 region.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price moves higher to $24.70, while the broader trend is sideways.
• The core PCE inflation will provide cues about Fed’s rate cut timing.
• Fed policymakers see three rate cuts by the year-end.

Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to $24.70 in the late Asian session on Thursday. The white metal posts gains ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday.

Core PCE will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The annual underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%, with monthly growth declining to 0.3% from 0.4% in January.

Currently, market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates from the June policy meeting. The expectations also show that there will be three rate cuts by the year-end, as projected by Fed policymakers in the monetary policy meeting last week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in 64% chance that the Fed will trim interest rates in June.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges down slightly from monthly highs of 104.50. The USD Index is broadly sideways in a 104.00-104.50 range from last four trading sessions. The US core PCE inflation is expected to support the USD index to blown out the consolidation. 10-year US Treasury yields rebound to 4.21% after falling sharply to 4.18% on Wednesday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price consolidates in a range of $24.32-$25.00 from a week. This exhibits an indecisiveness among market participants. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.60 remain stick to the spot price, demonstrating a sideways trend.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Silver hourly chart

• Silver drops to a two-week low on Wednesday, albeit manages to hold above the 38.2% Fibo.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further downfall.
• Any attempted recovery might confront a stiff barrier and remain capped near the $25.00 mark.

Silver (XAG/USD) oscillates in a narrow trading band through the first half of the European session and consolidates its recent losses to a two-week low touched earlier this Wednesday. The white metal currently trades just below the mid-$24.00s and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent pullback from the YTD peak touched last week.

That said, mixed technical indicators on the daily chart and failure to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally, warrant some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $24.30 support zone before positioning for a further depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then weaken further below the $24.00 round-figure mark and test the 50% Fibo. level near the $23.85 zone.

The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the white metal to the $23.40 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), en route to the $23.00 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the latter might expose the next relevant support near the $22.45 region.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $25.00 psychological mark. That said, a sustained strength beyond the said handle might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared will set the stage for additional near-term gains.

Silver daily chart

• Silver meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and drops closer to last week’s swing low.
• The setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside.
• A sustained break below the 38.2% Fibo. will reinforce the near-term negative outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) comes under some selling pressure on Tuesday and remains depressed near mid-$24.00s through the first half of the European session. Meanwhile, the technical setup seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of last week's sharp retracement slide from the $25.75-$25.80 region, or its highest level since early December.

The XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance below the $24.85-$24.80 horizontal support, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally. The subsequent slide, however, stalled near the $24.40 area, just ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Meanwhile, mixed oscillators on the daily chart make it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the said support before positioning for any further losses.

The XAG/USD might then accelerate the corrective decline further towards the $24.00 round figure before dropping to 50% Fibo. level support, around the $23.85 region. This is followed by the $23.35 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the white metal below the $23.00 mark, towards the next relevant support near the $22.45 region.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $25.00 psychological mark. That said, a sustained strength beyond the said handle might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price rises up and tips the top of a long-term range before reversing lower. 
• It has formed a Bearish Japanese candlestick pattern, enhancing the reversal thesis. 
• A move back down to a cluster of MAs in the 23.000s is foreseen subject to a continuation of the weakness.
   

Silver price (XAG/USD) is trading in the $24.750s on Friday, after touching the top of a multi-month range at roughly $25.700 and reversing lower. 

Silver formed a Bearish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern on the daily chart on Thursday, which reinforces the reversal and suggests more downside in the short-term. 

Silver versus US Dollar: Daily chart 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is threatening to cross below its signal line, adding credence to the bearish reversal. The MACD is a particularly reliable indicator within range-bound markets and a cross would provide a good sell signal. 

If the pair breaks below 24.405 it will probably continue south to a potential target at the cluster of major moving averages, in the lower 23.000s, starting with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 23.475. 

A break back above the 25.770 highs of Thursday, however, would indicate a probable extension of the uptrend. 

A decisive break above the range highs would indicate even more bullish momentum higher. Such a move would be expected to then reach a conservative target at the 0.618 extrapolation of the height of the range from the breakout point higher, and a target at 28.524.

• Silver drifts lower for the second straight day and touches a one-and-half-week low.
• The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets.
• A convincing break below the 38.2% Fibo. level will set the stage for deeper losses.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends the previous day's sharp retracement slide from the $25.75-$25.80 region, or its highest level since early December and remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Friday. The white metal maintains its offered tone through the early part of the European session and is currently placed around mid-$24.00s, just above a one-and-half-week low touched earlier today.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $24.85-$24.80 horizontal support, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent slide, however, stalls ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are still holding in the positive territory.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the said support near the $24.30 region before positioning for any further depreciating move for the XAG/USD. The corrective decline could then drag the white metal below the $24.00 round-figure mark, towards testing the 50% Fibo. level support near the $23.85 zone en route to the $23.40 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the flip side, the $24.80 horizontal support breakpoint could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $25.00 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally towards the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for additional gains.

Silver daily chart

• Silver prices see a significant drop to $24.75, shedding over 3% in response to a strengthening US Dollar.
• Technical analysis reveals a bearish engulfing pattern, despite a recent 'golden cross', signaling mixed signals for traders.
• The RSI indicates diminishing buying pressure, hinting at a potential bearish swing.

Silver's price plunged on Thursday amidst a risk-off impulse, reinvigorating the US Dollar. Consequently, the grey metal dropped more than $0.70, or 3.15%, as the XAG/USD traded at $24.75 after hitting a daily high of $25.77.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Silver is witnessing a downturn, as price action has formed a ‘bearish engulfing’ chart pattern in the last couple of days. Even though the 50-day moving average (DMA) has crossed above the 200-DMA, forming a classic ‘golden cross’ indicating that bulls are gathering steam, momentum suggests the opposite.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 60 after peaking around 70, indicating that moderate buying pressure remains. However, the RSI's descent from higher levels suggests that momentum might wane, and bears could gain ground.

The recent pullback has seen the price retreat from resistance near the $26.00 mark. Immediate support is found near December’s 22 high turned support at $24.60, followed by the $24.00 level. A breach of the latter could open a path towards the $23.00 area, marked by the previous cycle lows.

On the other hand, an XAG/USD daily close above $25.00 could pave the way for challenging yearly highs at $25.77, followed by last year’s high at $25.91.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price advances toward 11-month high at $26.14 as the US Dollar weakens.
• Fed’s projections for three rate cuts this year remain unabated.
• The market sentiment turns bullish on higher expectations for the Fed reducing interest rates from June.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its upside to $25.70 in Thursday’s European session. The white metal is an inch away from reclaiming an 11-month high at $26.14. The appeal for precious metals has strengthened after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

For the fifth time in a row, the Fed kept key borrowing rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. The appeal of the US Dollar weakened after the Fed stuck with three rate cut projections for this year. This led to a significant increase in market expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates from the June meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chances for a rate cut have increased to almost 75% from 59%, which was recorded before the Fed’s policy announcement. Expectations for Fed rate cuts in June rose significantly despite the Fed's failure to provide any meaningful timeframe for rate cuts, as it lacks evidence that inflation will sustainably decline to the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the demand for risk-sensitive assets improves as investors seem confident that rate cuts will start in June. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the London session. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped slightly to 4.26%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers intraday losses but broadly seems weak.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price approaches the 11-month high at $26.14. The near-term demand is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.35 is sloping higher. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that momentum leans towards the upside. Bullish momentum remains unabated as the momentum oscillator is still far from turning overbought.

If the Silver price breaks above its 11-month high at $26.14, it will discover more upside. This would open upside towards the 8 March 2022 high at $26.95, followed by the 15 September 2020 high at $27.83.

In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below December 22 high at $24.61 would expose the asset to 12 March low at $24.00 and January 30 high at $23.30.

Silver daily chart